Edge set and forget indices trading

[foroom lluzers]

How can you rationalise holding two contradictory beliefs - that markets uptrend 12% of the time but also "Take a look at monthly and weekly charts on indices , they are always up , after every fall they recover."?

What is contradictory ?A picture confirms my thousand words.

 

[tomorton]

What is contradictory ?A picture confirms my thousand words.

Is it really only a thousand?

 

[foroom lluzers]

Is it really only a thousand?

I meant rather than give you a thousand words , see the picture.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Using weekly strategy on set and forget , I am looking to buy the first position strictly at 1.2700

next supports are 1.2600 , 1.2500 and 1.2400 , I am looking to buy at these levels based on my subjective anylysis , if price goes there.

Ideally 1.2450 is next support.

 

[tomorton]

I meant rather than give you a thousand words , see the picture.

Sorry, just couldn't resist it.

 

[foroom lluzers]

These are this weeks option prices ,looking at long at 1.2700 with 1.2650 put long.

These option prices become cheaper during the week .weekly options.

 

[Dowser]

These are this weeks option prices ,looking at long at 1.2700 with 1.2650 put long.

These option prices become cheaper during the week .weekly options.

I don't known much about options. Is max risk calculated thus:

12700 - 12650 = 50

premium on the Long Put (12650) = 34.5

Max Risk = 84.5 points?

 

[foroom lluzers]

I don't known much about options. Is max risk calculated thus:

12700 - 12650 = 50

premium on the Long Put (12650) = 34.5

Max Risk = 84.5 points?

price will be 50 for 12650 put today (when price reaches 1.2700) , it will be cheaper as days pass

100 points risk

By wednesday you may be able to buy put for 25.

 

[Dowser]

To what extent is 12650 a technical level? A function of the option premium? and a function of your R:R strategy?

 

[foroom lluzers]

To what extent is 12650 a technical level? A function of the option premium? and a function of your R:R strategy?

If it drops , it touched 1.2650 last time , double bottom there.
If I have stop loss at 1.2650 , then if touches I lose without an option.

Option just gives me the holding time for a week.Trade may go to 1.2600 and rebound to 12800

 

[Dowser]

OK thanks

 

[foroom lluzers]

I use options as protection , just in case market falls 30% within a few weeks .I only risk 15% of my capital in this strategy.


By using options I limit my risk

 

[foroom lluzers]

Set and forget makes it far easier to stay emotionally disciplined and it also allows you to go about your life as you normally would, because you will not be spending hours in front of your computer.

It is the best way of trading , but trader needs loads of patience to wait.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Here is a excel sheet with data .After a monthly fall or a fall for 2 to 3 months , the markets usually recover .

Do some data anylysis to see profitable methods.