EASY-MONEY by cointoss

[x4x]

Hmmmmm not sure I agree Pete.

If you trade random entry and

Target 10 ticks, stop 10 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread
Target 100 ticks, stop 10 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread
Target 48848920 ticks, stop 100 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread
Target 1ticks, stop 100000 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread

Doesn't matter how you change it - you will still breakeven on the trades but lose the spread on top.

If you change to a trailing stop, then what happens is you will make money if the market mostly trends. Although not quite that simple (you need to be aligned with the overall volatility), the trailing stop makes it a trend following system.

I think The Hare has already fessed up on what his to$$ing involves to an extent. I think when he says random entry, a lot of people presume he has an equally unsophisticated exit strategy. I would doubt that because he's already been in discussions here about the feeling of being 'engaged' to the market and how you somehow feel more able to read the action once in a trade.

Still - he's not willing to feed the monkeys right now, although he may have to do that as penance when the RSPCA turn up at his house about those bagged cats.

If someone's PROFIT target is 10 ticks, then that includes the spread.

If their LOSS is 10 ticks then it includes the spread.

What's all this plus and minus the spread - if the spread wasn't included it wouldn't be 10 ticks profit, would it.

 

[Shakone]

I think The Hare has already fessed up on what his to$$ing involves to an extent. I think when he says random entry, a lot of people presume he has an equally unsophisticated exit strategy.

On the contrary, it is obvious that it cannot be. Do you think that if he picked the entry, and had a random exit, he'd find it much harder to mimic the success he's had with random entry and strategic exit? I do.

 

[Benj1981]

If you change to a trailing stop, then what happens is you will make money if the market mostly trends. Although not quite that simple (you need to be aligned with the overall volatility), the trailing stop makes it a trend following system.

However, an edge is nevertheless present.

 

[the hare]

Do you think that if he picked the entry, and had a random exit, he'd find it much harder to mimic the success he's had with random entry and strategic exit? I do.

I was going to make exactly that point. I've never actually found an entry that had an edge sufficiently large enough to work with a random exit.

 

[piggybridges]

'random entry and trailing stop' is gonna be the biggest thing here since Dantes 'Pin bars'. I just know it.

 

[DionysusToast]

If someone's PROFIT target is 10 ticks, then that includes the spread.

If their LOSS is 10 ticks then it includes the spread.

What's all this plus and minus the spread - if the spread wasn't included it wouldn't be 10 ticks profit, would it.

OK

10 ticks profit
10 ticks stop loss

spread 2 ticks.

To get to your stop, you need an 8 tick move
To get to your target you need a 12 tick move

Your win rate on a random entry system would be 40%

You'd lose the spread.

 

[DionysusToast]

I was going to make exactly that point. I've never actually found an entry that had an edge sufficiently large enough to work with a random exit.

Yeah - but imagine the excitement!

 

[the hare]

'random entry and trailing stop' is gonna be the biggest thing here since Dantes 'Pin bars'. I just know it.

You have to get a hell of a lot more creative than a trailing stop

I wonder how much productive time is actually WASTED by people testing this kind of garbage. Someone should hand Van Tharp a bloody bill for the damage he's done. He can expect a hoof in the plums from me should our paths ever cross

 

[x4x]

OK

10 ticks profit
10 ticks stop loss

spread 2 ticks.

To get to your stop, you need an 8 tick move
To get to your target you need a 12 tick move

Your win rate on a random entry system would be 40%

You'd lose the spread.

OF course, the spread is a cost and will always be there no matter what strategy or what method you use - most liquid markets are only one spread, but whatever it is, it should easily be absorbed anyway.

It will happen, but not often that the market moves in your favour by exactly 11 points, or exactly 9 points against you, but I would guess that at least 95% of my winning trades runs on from where I close and run on from where I'm stopped by at least 2 points, if not a lot more.

A coin toss entry is a ridiculous idea any way - if the market in question is going in a clear identifiable direction, why toss a coin. It seems a lazy gamblers sort of strategy to me.

 

[Liquid validity]

A coin toss entry is a ridiculous idea any way - if the market in question is going in a clear identifiable direction, why toss a coin. It seems a lazy gamblers sort of strategy to me.

Exactly.
If you trade discretionary, it is retarded to flip a coin.
It is a very useful excersise in trade management all the same.

Where a "coin toss" comes into its own is with automated trading.
Why?
Because automation is dumb f**k retarded, so random entry is often no worse,
or in most cases better than an apparently more complex entry strategy based
on loads of crap that works no better.
Its how and where you get out that decides your PnL...

Simon Kerr talks to David Harding - The Hedge Fund Journal
Go to the bottom of the above link.
Read the absolute last paragraph.
That may put randomness in perspective, then again it may not
The rest of the interview is quite interesting as well...

 

[x4x]

I honestly don't understand why people want to flip a coin when all you have to do is wait for the market to show a direction, then follow it.

 

[b2b2]

I honestly don't understand why people want to flip a coin when all you have to do is wait for the market to show a direction, then follow it.

gambling aka poor money management and risk management

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I honestly don't understand why people want to flip a coin when all you have to do is wait for the market to show a direction, then follow it.

1 minute chart

:clap:

 

[cointoss]

wow.. i didnt expect people will discuss about this.

anyway..

update for you all. 0.01 lot was hit with stop loss.

now i flipped the coin and it shows me to buy again. ive entered 0.02 now
btw, changed the demo account because i opened the standard instead mini. refer 1st post for latest read-only password. cheers everyone


new read-only password here :

login : 10258344
password : sy8l6ud (read-only password)

 

[cointoss]

0.02 hit with stop loss again,

now entered 0.04 buy position again

 

[D70]

OF course, the spread is a cost and will always be there no matter what strategy or what method you use - most liquid markets are only one spread, but whatever it is, it should easily be absorbed anyway.

It will happen, but not often that the market moves in your favour by exactly 11 points, or exactly 9 points against you, but I would guess that at least 95% of my winning trades runs on from where I close and run on from where I'm stopped by at least 2 points, if not a lot more.

A coin toss entry is a ridiculous idea any way - if the market in question is going in a clear identifiable direction, why toss a coin. It seems a lazy gamblers sort of strategy to me.

I can only assume that you are a billionaire.

 

[the hare]

This thread is a source of considerable amusement to me...

 

[Hoggums]

Can't wait for....

327.68 hit with stop loss again,

now entered 655.36 buy position again

 

[x4x]

I can only assume that you are a billionaire.

I assume you find it difficult to identify a clear direction - I would advise opening your eyes.

 

[cointoss]

update,

yesterday position is hit with stoploss. flipped coin and it still shows me to buy. entered 0.08 buy