EASY-MONEY by cointoss

[cointoss]

Login : 10257810
Investor : 6xl8gfv (read only password)

platform ibfx.com.au
lot size : nano
starting capital :$1000
leverage 1:400

Strategy :

trade eur/usd only

When to enter : - yup.. this is not a joke. i only enter trade based on coin toss. marked my coin one side is buy and another is sell

for example : you toss a coin at certain time of every trading day (monday until friday), if the coin shows u buy. you follow it. if result is sell, just follow it.

take profit : 50 pips
stop loss 50 pips

use martingale strategy.

0.01
0.02
0.04
0.08
0.16
0.32
0.64
1.28
2.56

which means, i will enter a position after a coin toss.

the reason why eur/usd is because market dont really manipulated by broker and it is most traded pair as well

if i have chances of 9 times getting hit with stoploss, total drawdown is only $255.50 (-25.5%)

but it is a coin toss, guess what are the chances will hit the stoploss for 9 consecutive times?

if i hit the takeprofit, the next day will go back betting on 0.01 lot. only trade once a day!

0.01 x 50 pips = 0.5
0.02 x 50 pips = 1
0.04 x 50 pips = 2
0.08 x 50 pips = 4
0.16 x 50 pips = 8
0.32 x 50 pips = 16
0.64 x 50 pips = 32
1.28 x 50 pips = 64
2.56 x 50 pips = 128

total $255.5

percentage : 25.5%


stay tuned for the result. thx everyone for reading

 

[the hare]

I also trade by tossing coins. I don't know how long you've been doing this, but I've been doing it for well over 10 years, tens of thousands of live trades, and 10's of millions of simulated trades.

9 consecutive losers will be hit, and probably within the next year.

 

[trendie]

on the 9th consecutive loss, your accumulated losses are (TWICE 2.56 - 1).

If you have made the loss on the 9th trade, your loss on the 9th trade is 256, plus the accumulated losses on the preceding 8.

Surely thats 512 - 1 = 511??
It is Friday, so forgive my poor arithmetic, but isnt that the true accumulated exposure?

 

[wackypete2]

The point of this is...?

Peter

 

[the hare]

The point of this is...?

Peter

probably lulz.

Its a pity because there's a lot of very valuable lessons to be learned from random systems. Having said that the zoo is not the place to be letting cats out of bags :cheesy:

 

[wackypete2]

on the 9th consecutive loss, your accumulated losses are (TWICE 2.56 - 1).

If you have made the loss on the 9th trade, your loss on the 9th trade is 256, plus the accumulated losses on the preceding 8.

Surely thats 512 - 1 = 511??
It is Friday, so forgive my poor arithmetic, but isnt that the true accumulated exposure?

His 9th trade is $2.56 * 50 pips = $128.00
Total loss = ($128 *2) -$0.50 =$255.50

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

probably lulz.

Its a pity because there's a lot of very valuable lessons to be learned from random systems. Having said that the zoo is not the place to be letting cats out of bags :cheesy:

There's a lesson to be learned using martingale also, but probably not the one he envisions.

Peter

 

[scholfield]

my friend tried random entry trading once! lol
He lost

 

[R.Charnock]

Should be interesting, but it might take a few hundred years and lots of blown accounts before we can draw any conclusions.

 

[trendie]

His 9th trade is $2.56 * 50 pips = $128.00
Total loss = ($128 *2) -$0.50 =$255.50

Peter

I stand corrected.
It will take a tad longer for him to totally blow his account.

 

[DionysusToast]

I also trade by tossing coins. I don't know how long you've been doing this, but I've been doing it for well over 10 years, tens of thousands of live trades, and 10's of millions of simulated trades.

9 consecutive losers will be hit, and probably within the next year.

10's of millions of simulated trades?

Shurely a SIM trade is a live forward test, right? Backtest ain;t SIM...

You've actually done this 10's of millions of times?

Did you get callouses?

What a to$$er!!!

 

[DionysusToast]

probably lulz.

Its a pity because there's a lot of very valuable lessons to be learned from random systems. Having said that the zoo is not the place to be letting cats out of bags :cheesy:

Can't do it on 'the zoo' ?

So have to go to city bulls with the other to$$ers?

What you will learn with random entry is the impact the spread has on trading. :smart:

 

[the hare]

What you will learn with random entry is the impact the spread has on trading. :smart:

Indeed, that is one of the many things you might learn..

Don't worry, no cats will be let out of bags

 

[DionysusToast]

I'm calling the RSPCA...

First it was hamsters in the post, now this....

Some zoo...

 

[piggybridges]

What you will learn with random entry is the impact the spread has on trading. :smart:

correct.

Now You've let the 'cat' out of the bag.
Anyone dissapointed???

 

[wackypete2]

Can't do it on 'the zoo' ?

So have to go to city bulls with the other to$$ers?

What you will learn with random entry is the impact the spread has on trading. :smart:

Only if you are a short term trader. How much impact does the spread have on a position trader holding for 1000 pips and maybe only take 3-4 trades a year?

Peter

 

[DionysusToast]

Only if you are a short term trader. How much impact does the spread have on a position trader holding for 1000 pips and maybe only take 3-4 trades a year?

Peter

Well - if you are a ******, it has the same effect of the green on the roulette in a casino. The toss had no edge and so over time - even with 1000 pip target (which you will hit as often as you will lose), you will lose the spread. It'd be like that little river that carved out the Grand Canyon.

There's a random entry case well discussed on the forums. What was it - enter at random & trail the stop, right? This will make money - but only in a market that trends more often that it doesn't. The 'bet' effectively moves from choosing direction to betting on an overall premise that the market trends more often than it doesn't.

You are still betting on certain conditions existing in the market just that it 'appears' random. Nothing wrong with it but it is not proof of randomness making money, just proof of trends making money if you trade a trend following system.

 

[wackypete2]

Yes, of course the spread will always be a negative percentage against you. But if you are taking trades with 50 pips TP/SL, or less, then you'd be concerned whether the spread is 1 pip or 3 pips because it makes a huge difference in the negative expectation in percentage terms. However if you routinely take 1000 TP/SL trades then certainly a 1 pip or 3 pip spread should not really be a concern.

I would expect if you trade a completely random entry system with a 10 pip TP/SL you could never win. The spread is just too large to overcome. Same system with much larger targets would give a better chance at coming out ahead.

Peter

 

[DionysusToast]

Hmmmmm not sure I agree Pete.

If you trade random entry and

Target 10 ticks, stop 10 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread
Target 100 ticks, stop 10 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread
Target 48848920 ticks, stop 100 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread
Target 1ticks, stop 100000 ticks - you breakeven MINUS the spread

Doesn't matter how you change it - you will still breakeven on the trades but lose the spread on top.

If you change to a trailing stop, then what happens is you will make money if the market mostly trends. Although not quite that simple (you need to be aligned with the overall volatility), the trailing stop makes it a trend following system.

I think The Hare has already fessed up on what his to$$ing involves to an extent. I think when he says random entry, a lot of people presume he has an equally unsophisticated exit strategy. I would doubt that because he's already been in discussions here about the feeling of being 'engaged' to the market and how you somehow feel more able to read the action once in a trade.

Still - he's not willing to feed the monkeys right now, although he may have to do that as penance when the RSPCA turn up at his house about those bagged cats.

 

[the hare]

I think when he says random entry, a lot of people presume he has an equally unsophisticated exit strategy..

They would be very wrong