Wirral, I got to read your last post because Scose had quoted it (I do not have him on ignore, see).
Look mate - if you're 58 years old you should know better. You copied and pasted somebody else's analysis and doctored it (numerous times for consistency) so as to make it appear that you had written it yourself. According to Scose you are also offering places on paid courses, which leads me to the conclusion that you were trying to make yourself appear more knowledgable (a point you refute) and articulate (one which you cannot) than you actually are in order to make your offer more appealing.
'Fess up and admit that you told porkies to make yourself sound more like a professional analyst than you are.
I have already said that I dumped some text from Ashran (omitting charts) on the first part of my post as a quick and easy way of getting some information about the pairs Correlation indices onto here by way of providing some help and understanding to the discussion. It was lazy and wrong to do it that way - particularly as most of the posts on here are people just waiting to jump down each others throats, rather than willing to talk about trading. As I said, I walked right into that one. I never said that it was my own text and as so many people here get the same email updates from Ashran (including that one), that should be obvious. The sentiment however of the quote is not unique to anyone in particular - thats why I used it as part of a post.
Had the discussion continued about Trading and Fundamentals, then I would have continued to elaborate. If I use some text verbatim in the future as part of a wider issue, then as a result of this particular excursion, I shall most definitely attribute it. I am not trying to flog my courses here. They are mentioned in my bio simply because I have to explain that I am a Vendor member, not a private member.
Just in case there is a small chance that someone is actually interested in discussing trading rather that the side show and as I don't trade usually on Fridays, then I will elaborate further. It might be helpful if replies move the discussion on with reference to the subject matter. As to what people think about my own experience on the subject, I'm sure they will each come to their own personal conclusion as has been evident so far - its really not that important.
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Here is my deeper take on the Current fundamentals surrounding the eur/usd and the gbp/usd.
I personally think the origins of the current Financial Crisis can be traced back to late 1973 when the US and therefore the World came off the Gold Standard, defined and continued as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 as the War was coming to an end. The situation came up as a result of the then Oil crisis when the US was forced to decouple the Dollar from the Gold standard after allowing the price of Gold to rise. Other Countries had simply pegged their currencies to the Dollar rather than Gold as a convenience and so when the US dropped the Gold Standard, the currency was effectively allowed to float. From that point on bonds were issued on the "credit and good faith" of the Sovereign Government in question rather than pegged to real assets. This began an explosion of paper leading to the current ridiculous mountain we have today.
The current Fundamentals behind the Dollar are a little frightening at the moment because of this huge debt mountain - estimated to be some $9.8 trillion deficit between 2011 and 2020 under Obama’s Government. This guy wants and needs to spend ever more on his new Health reforms etc, but has taken over the reins at precisely the wrong time for his plans. As I stated previously, the truth is that the US levels of debt/GDP ratio are actually akin to those of Greece - which spawned the recent Eurozone crisis.
Taking all of this as a background to the present day, then following the Bank Stress tests last Friday, Moodys have stated that the European Banks and UK Banks are "past their worst" but is clearly afraid to rock the boat and deal with "the Elephant in the room" elsewhere. They were inconclusive regarding US's AAA status, but there are many who believe that the US may actually lose its rating. This would severely knock the US's position as the Reserve Currency of the World which has helped the Dollar through the recession.
There have been so many examples of this where News Traders have been caught in the recent upheaval. Time and time again, horrendous news that should have been very bad for the Dollar had the opposite effect and sent the Dollar up. This is because in times of crisis investors look for a safe haven such as Gold and other commodities and in this case The Reserve Currency - and bought US bonds. Hence the Fundamentals that drove currencies down against the Dollar.
Now though we have a sea change. The Chinese Yuan has recently been allowed to rise against the Dollar for the first time ever. The problem for the Chinese is that they need to keep their Tiger economy going - particularly in lieu of aspirational wage demands etc. They also have all the Dollars in the World (give or take a few!) so how do they juggle this? Well instead of automatically buying US bonds (USD) they are now faced with needing to keep their other big Western Market going as well to a greater degree than before - particularly as the sentiment indicators for the US and the Eurozone/GB are now more skewed in favour of the Eurozone. In other words if the the average American is going to have less money to buy their goods, then they need to look and support other Markets. So they have been buying European and Uk bonds in greater quantities than before creating first a reversal and then an short uptrend ( some 1200 or so points) on the Euro and GBP vs the long term down trend.
The bottom line is it simply suits the Chinese to have a stronger Euro and Sterling right now – and they call the shots. They will probably send the Euro back up to 140/150 or so in the MT against the dollar.
and yes - its all my own work
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