Dow Intraday Charts 9 Feb - 13 Feb

[rustic1]

How do I get a picture near my name?

 

[tradesmart]

RusticKathy - After the big 123 point move on Wednesday, it was a fair bet that yesterday was going to be a consolidation day in a tight range when the market would digest the prior move.

You let the RSI ND/PD tell you how many points you are going to get, but keep an eye on the developing pattern, in this case a triangle, as it obviously gives a clue to the likely outcome……… it’s no good hoping for 35 points if the pattern indicates there are only going to be 10-20 going……(but watch for a breakout……!)……I’d rather attempt to bank a few points at a time than not have any at all…..

IMHO all you can do is trade to the indicators and see where it leads…..

All trading comes with a warning “You could lose 50 + points in a twinkling of an eye” (if you’re not careful!) and we should thank CM for that……..

JSD – yet another ‘trade what you see day’ I guess – plainly at these levels there will be profit takers about, and the bulls may wait for a pullback before they buy in again…I’ve still got some faith in Gordon Gekko’s Dow Comp entry bearing fruit again…….!

How do I get a picture near my name?

Go to 'My User Options' and 'Change (select) Avatar'

 

[rustic1]

Thanks TS

Cute hey!

 

[jsd]

hmmm tradesmart well i saw what happend and short dow @ 10622, short ndx100 @1509, holding both at present ,prices being accepted at lows, 1500 ndx test playing out...


jd

 

[jsd]

closed shorts on both, small long on ndx 100 looks like the bottoms gone in

jd

 

[tradesmart]

holding short from 10727 - not sure we've bottomed yet though 10640 is about the 10min channel lower line.......!?.....looking for some kind of PD poss 'w' pattern to confirm.....always worth waiting.....

 

[One Eyed Shark]

ES volume divergance suggest this could be it for now, no strong buying volume at the moment so out and flat

 

[ChartMan]

I'd go with the ES Div vol too

 

[tradesmart]

it hasn't finished the bottoming pattern yet imho........PD on the 10min chart is always desirable.........

(just a personal preference, mind..... :cheesy: )

ps - what it really wants is a test of 10620 ish - 38.2% fib retracement of the recent big move and recent resistance...

but don't quote me on this....

anyone playing 'spot the triangle' while we're waiting....

 

[ChartMan]

620 is good- hor. res. too... got the triangle ok.Only worth 20, but that's ok...

 

[tradesmart]

Y'all long now?!?.... :cheesy:

Regards, Mystic Meg

edit - all 3 main indexes have PD on 10min charts suggesting some recovery, but might be slow/sideways until the evening session - no dead certs ha...? !

edit 2- closed 2 longs 609/622 @ 638 - (got a Phyllosan tasting evening coming up....! ) - don't know if it's gonna try to form a DB @605 before take off - don't trust Friday 13th.......!!!

 

[mombasa]

looks like that V on the 5 min is abt to come good - here's hoping anyways.

 

[ChartMan]

Pretty easy to catch the bounce down of res1, and the test of res2.TS's call of 620 bottom was just about spot on. Just a reminder to do your homework and carry over the 10 min S/R lines so you know where you're at.....

 

[ChartMan]

You could be forgiven for taking the long at 700, hoping for the breakout off the V bottom, BUT you had to know that Res1 was at 730... + the magic 732...along with the short ND to ensure your exit on failure . That should have prompted a short too...all the way down to 640 and a pause to take in a Bear flag at Res2, with a 20 point width and a target of 570. Having seen the call of 620 bottom by TS and Hor support, It would have been wise to start thinking of Bear flag failure....RSI failing to push down to 20 should have helped persuade you that 570 was not going to happen......and so to cover. The break at 18:07 and 632/5 prompted a long, but was short lived, with another chance of a BO from the thin triangle at 19:16. For not a lot as it happens, as that went nowhere either. With luck, you could have got out, just for break even. Full of promise, but non-delivery at the end of the day.....

 

[tradesmart]

Just a reflection on Friday's action, and the lead in to the big, and somewhat unexpected tank - but it was Friday 13th and with the President's Day holiday today, maybe there weren't too many buyers about.....

The expression "designed to confuse" springs to mind, but it seems to be quite a regular format:-

The index falls immediately the negative (Consumer Sentiment) data is received, but there is a prompt, apparently 'fake' reversal, probably designed to take out the stops of premature shorts - then the index continues in it's intended direction and a tank of over 100 points.......(I'm glad to say, I wasn't a premature short.... )

 

[tradesmart]

The same format in the opposite direction occured last Wednesday, when Mr Greenspan defined the meaning of "patient" (not urgent........! ) and the market liked what it heard......

 

[wellshot]

thanks tradesmart

nicely put.

that fake pull back on greenspan... i wonder how many people closed their longs in panick..[trading the 1 min chart].only to fail in the iron discipline it would take te re enter in such a fast market...the stops would effectively [due to rubbish fills] be very wide .. risky? i "saw" it but in thinking it got away ..i never chase a break out...guess i need to practice iron discipline!!
thanks for your analysis

 

[tonie]

Chartman your analysis is great... do u actually make these trades in real-time...retrospectively it looks simple but prospectively may be not be...!!!!????

tonie