Dow Intraday charts 23/Feb - 27/Feb

[mombasa]

TS - yup - long now at 10,530 on PD.

 

[tradesmart]

Hampy, the PD did work, but only for about a 15 point rise as it was still trending down (same goes for when it’s trending up imho – you might only get 10/15 points down out of ND (‘till it gets to the ‘real’ top, that is))

I cheated to call the bottom at around 525 – drew in new downtrend lines to get the level……

Bgold – for sure we’ve got some more downside to come (with bounces inbetween…..!!)

mom - beware of a retest of the low - seems a bit slow heading north so far.........

 

[mombasa]

TS - thx - I've cut n run

 

[tradesmart]

ah well - deceptively slow takeoff, but thankfully no big pullback, out at 565.........

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Greenspan was speaking today, from 10:00 ET, and the market virtually always rallies when he's talking. Then when he's finished just after 10:30 ET, they obviously think to themselves "that was a load of tosh" and the market drops.

Check it out for yourselves - Greenspan spoke on Wed 11th Feb (market rallied, following day it dropped).

Greenspan spoke Friday 20 Feb (market rallied when he started speaking at 13:00 ET, and then dropped when he stopped and it carried on dropping the following day, ie yesterday).

It's no hard and fast rule, of course, but something to remember.

And, guess what? He's speaking tomorrow too! LOL

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Wednesday - Feb 25, 2004
10:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to testify about U.S. economic policy before the House Budget Committee, in Washington .

 

[tradesmart]

Skims - sometimes I just wish that he'd shut up - he's confusing everyone..........!? :cheesy:

 

[Skimbleshanks]

He can talk as much as he likes ... when I'm long. :cheesy:

And I do hope I'm short when he kicks the bucket. :cheesy:

 

[ChartMan]

You were always short, Skim... :cheesy:
Continued down channel confirmation, but I've moved the resistance line up a tad.... Three days span on divergence suggests we should be close to turning round, so don't go too heavy on the shorts.... until Greenspans shuts up. Nice correlation, Skim.
I guess we should look for a failure to touch support as confirmation of the turnaround.

 

[ChartMan]

TS. Didn't you pick up the support line last night? A straight continuation....
Lower risk long on the divergence as it was confirmed by the 64 bounce. Same for the top... short divergence, but confirmed with the 32 test/ d -top. Into that 15 point PD that TS mentioned- you never know( except with hindsight) what it will give up... Probably screwed by greenspan spouting off... Then another trick divergence that led to a 20 point drawdown... the limit of pain...
Yesterday's suggestion of upside today just a figment of someone's immagination.

 

[anmolway]

Hi skim, I get briefing.com news but it doesn't seem to list the times Mr greenspan speaks. It only has the dates. Could you please highlight which website provides a complete list of the times.

Or is it that other than the FOMC announcements he tends to always speak at 3pmish

Many thanks

 

[Skimbleshanks]

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/02/day/24/daily/index.html

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Been an interesting few days for longer term market direction and the bears ( EW analysts :cheesy: ) seem to have had it their way for the past 4-5 days....

Finding a lot of noise on the 10 min chart so pulled out to 30 mins to try to get a clearer view..........and for me the bulls still rock, yes we are coming up to a critical time but if there is a plan we are most definitely sticking to it, a break of lower trendline / 500 will be significant.

Also backed up by some short term PD on MACD

 

[mombasa]

I think we are due for a retest of 50MA on the daily chart - think the down channel will continue down to 10,450 - then, who knows?

Would be a nice correction before anothe ride up tho

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Mom- If you take a 50 day SMA it sits at 479, and I could just about accept that and keep my bullish optmism.

Using the 50 day EMA and a bounce to 400 gets me running for the bear hat.

 

[anmolway]

thanks skim

 

[mombasa]

one eye - changed to 450 on a second look

 

[tradesmart]

A bit of a reversal at 10610 ish! – a least it confirms the position of the top downtrend channel line and gives a potential Inv H&S….!

More soothing words from Mr Greenspan seem to have put the market in a positive frame of mind, so maybe we’ll see more upside today and a breach of the top down channel line and back into the rising Shark channel……..?!

I’m tempted to see the down channel as a big bull flag with a target of 10700, but maybe the bears see it differently – we’ll find out soon……

 

[tradesmart]

Anyone still in long despite this choppiness....?!

I'm still holding from 575, but rather fear I might have to pull for a 'scratch'.......

I was reckoning on 620 min, but looks a tad optimistic at the mo'......

Seems to be the combined effect of the resistance of the top line of the downtrend channel and the lower line of the Shark channel....

a double whammy...... :|

 

[frugi]

Sure wouldn't want to be on the Lady of Mann if the Dow were the Irish Sea eh...

I'm flat (well apart from a tiny stake in my pet MA system, aptly named"Vince"!)

Reckon something's brewing though - ES has been in a tighly locked groove for too long. Six points either way to the close??

PS U don't look a day over 25

 

[tradesmart]

Ah well, all’s well that ends well – out at 610…..!

35 points for a 4hr hold……..!

I suspected it was going to be marginally bullish today, but I feel like I’ve been gored… !

PS U don't look a day over 25

It’s the cardiovascular stimulation of trading – similar to mountaineering sometimes….(at least an ‘uphill battle’……! :cheesy: )

ps does Frugi rhyme with Budgie?