Dow Intraday charts 17/11 - 21/11

[ChartMan]

Bear flags and things.... I don't think they are in vogue on the 10 min dow nowadays. You know how the characteristics of instruments changes with time..... What is flavour of the day are the trending channels. Get those right, and you can get some safe trading. Whether or not the RSI/CCI trend lines are self fulfilling prophecies, I don't know, but they do hold good. Today's action was locked firmly within the lower channel that I drew last night and the conditions laid out for the break were just touched.
Difficult call now, but you have to look for 9600 support. If this is yet another lower low or bottom, the PD is still holding and into it's 4th day. The expanding triangle over the last 3 days could give us a good move tomorrow. Which way? Until the trend is broken and confirmed, it has to be a bounce off support.

 

[ChartMan]

OK , let's look at the bear flag. They can and do work with the "pole" the wrong way, but you mustn't't jump the gun. Today, unfortunately, had all the trappings of giving an early signal that would have prompted an early short entry. This is where the 3rd peak fails to make resistance.(16:30 , 9683). IF you took that early short, you must close as soon as you see the bounce off support. Bear flags that deliver never falter around support, they drop straight through.... Interesting that bounce came on 64.
So the real 3rd low was at "3" and it didn't drop. So 9680 for a quick long, and out on the ND top across 34 mins.- It looks short on time, but remember the minimum time span is 25 minutes. That last peak failing to follow through and try 32 should have prompted a short...holding into the close for 60 odd points.
You could argue that the pole is the right way round, if you take the move from yesterday's close..... not really relevant, except where you need to derive a target.

 

[sidinuk]

Options expiry today - whipsaw warning is high!

 

[Austin&Liz]

Hi

Is anyone else having a problem logging on to MyTrack this morning? It can't seem to connect to the Server & I don't know if it's a problem with MyTrack or our server - if anyone could come back to us it would be much appreciated!

 

[tradesmart]

Hi A & L - My connection to MyTrack failed late last night and is still down - we'll probably have to wait until the boys get into the office stateside and reboot the server (or something!)

Regards

 

[Austin&Liz]

Hi Tradesmart

Thanks for that info - guess I'll just have to be patient!

 

[lockstock]

A&L,

Hi,

There is a whole thread running on My Track (Off Track).this am.




http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7391

 

[lockstock]

14.14hrs & mine's just come back on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Austin&Liz]

Cheers Lockstock - hadn't seen that but glad I'm not the only one having problems not that it's any real consolation at the moment!

 

[Austin&Liz]

Hi Lockstock

Just tried my connection again & got on finally!!

Thanks for your help

 

[lockstock]

No problem,


It's now whether we can trust the data, & the images we see on the charts????

 

[tradesmart]

You all know that I'm a keen flag spotter, having got embroiled with the failed bear variety yesterday.......

Today I think that I've spotted a 'beer' flag (you know, the type that if it breaks north, makes an addition to the beer money...)

And now that I've spotted it, it seems tinged with failure....!

Long at 9595...........

It could drive you to drink if you took it too seriously.........

 

[rossored]

TS I'm with you on the flag. Got a bad fill and late in though, althought it does look weak, so I've taken profits.

Now i've done that it will fly of course.

 

[tradesmart]

rosso - hope you made a good profit - I'm still in - might see a shandy out of it yet - suspect gains might sell-off later as normal for recent Fridays........

Regards

 

[twiggytwo]

Hi Chartman , just a bit of fun ,do you want to know the poss close price of the Dow tonight from my Staircase Indicator (IF IT WORKS) ?
Regards Twiglet

 

[Lard42]

Hi Tradesmart

I was with you on the bear flag yesterday and went in only a few point higher than you. Didn't want post because of the inevitable kiss of death that it would provide.

My system indicated that the break up would fail, although I did sweat it a bit, was glad to see the divergance come to play. Still short, hoping for a good move down :cheesy: . Although seems to be a bit reluctant today. Will have to wait and see

Cheers

Lard

 

[tradesmart]

Hi Lard,

Glad your short came good yesterday despite the flag failure, and it might tank again this evening - seems very unstable - closed my long at 9640 a bit earlier - thought I might see 9660, but it wasn't to be.....!

Good Luck

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Whipsaw city today, think I will have paid more in commission to IB than I have made, are we going to have one final rally or is the top in for the day?

 

[tradesmart]

OES - well, we know the answer now and the futures have whanged up to an optomistic 9650ish!

We saw a bear flag yesterday with a sting in the tail north before delivering; today it's bull flags with a sting in the tail south....!!!!!!

I suspect a US MM's plot to take out stops - or is that too cynical?

ps - will again look forward to CM's comments on the subject..

 

[ChartMan]

Yes, Twiggy... Although it's a bit late now.... Post it anyway, I'll trust you.