Friday 20th August 2004
All markets gap down although less than yesterday.
9:36 Gaps closed on ES, YM and Indu - now back above 100 ema
9:46 TRADE ENTRY: Long at 10036 (10038 YM) on move back up off 100 ema but risky as still no clear direction or taking out of yesterday's late swing highs and lows. Moves up but needs to take out 10050 level with conviction now. And it fails to do so on first attempt, then peeps over but cannot get away and heads straight down again. Going for a hat-trick of losing first trades today so really nervous about this one.
10:05 Has another run up and takes out HOD but only by 1 tick with possible ND (could count as three peak ND if you go back to yesterday - not sure how to treat this). Drops swiftly. One more run up stopped dead at 10050 and down it comes. And again. I just don't know if I should still be in this or not. All the way down to entry and 100 ema and another bounce which goes to HOD again and stalls, then breaks out as ES takes out yesterday's HOD.
Question: Was the triple peak ND at 10:10 a good exit, taking one of its peaks from yesterday? If so, it would have been best to exit here for +14 or so and re-enter on the 100 ema bounce.
10:35 Strong move up to new highs but then reverses very quickly. Next significant recent high is 10083 so a bull flag here would be good with a T1 on the next move up of that recent high. But the flag isn't holding and the retracement just keeps coming down. This is horrible price action for the long position. And price back to 10050 level. What a magnet. Really need it to bounce soon now as it has given back more than two thirds of its peak profit.
11:04 All the way back to 100 ema - and drops below - and trade virtually back at entry. That's a shocker - it has just dropped all the way back down on a single move up. From 30+ in profit. I've no idea what could have given an exit as it looked perfectly poised to keep on up or at least have a try at going higher. Ugly.
11:20 Starts another run up. Gets above 100 ema and 10050 level but I suspect this will be a nightmare lower high/right shoulder formation. Stalls around 10055 then pushes up to 10060. It must run to the HOD at 10068 now. No, it has failed the second move up and is coming back down. Looks like a head and shoulders. Back at 10050 (!!) and through to the downside. Right at the 100 ema again.
11:47 Triangle breaks to the downside, below 100 ema. Long looks completely doomed now. And into loss. But bounces back up - fake out or return move? Pauses for thought then continues up to resistance on top of triangle where it stops again (but back above 100 ema/10050 levels). Looks like this will knock it down again. Jumping all over the place. But fails to break out. And then back down below 100 ema and then back up above! Jeez. This is a tough tough ride. Stops again at 10050 and just cannot break this upper resistance line. Objectively I would expect the move up to the recent highs at some stage today but right now it's just not happening for the longs.
12:06 OK - here it break up but this time it looks like a fake to the upside (although there was some real volume on the breakout). Nope, straight back down again (to 10050). Then it does break up convincingly. Again, T1 looks to be at the recent high (10083).
12:15 Stalls at HOD. Let's see if we can get a flag this time, again predicting at move to mid 10080's. But no, it's dropping away quickly again. Then stabilises. Flag forms but it appears to break to the downside. Maybe HOD will hold and push it all the way down again. The fact that we are moving into Friday lunchtime could upset the long applecart as a big move is probably less likely and another pullback thus favoured. Unless it goes quickly, hits the recent high then they pack up shop for the weekend.
12:42 Breaks out of flag but no upside follow through.
12:51 Breaks to upside but stalls at HOD. Then moves on up.
12:55 Right, it's Friday evening, I'm on holiday and I'm closing at my T1 for +44 which gives me a very satisfactory +100 points for what often felt like a really tough week. Hopefully I closed too soon (i.e. no divergence exit yet), but today's not a day for me to be greedy.
Will post chart after close.
I think its just unfamiliarity with the abreviations which seem to be used here very freely. Jargon and abreviations are great when your familiar with them but duanting to a novice. 
