Dow Intraday charts 13/10 - 17/10

[ChartMan]

Nice move. It's a times like this that I sometimes wish I'd shout my mouth off and predict a big move up. Still, on balance, I think it's preferable to offer a balanced viewpoint, like China W, and let others figure out what the move might be. I don't know what it is, whether it's luck , intuition or just plain experience that helps me get it right ( sometimes).Whatever. The day looked flakey but ended up breaking channel resistance, just.
Now what? S/R and channel rules say down.BUT is that an SR switch on CCI? The triangle on RSI hasn't failed or delivered. Is there room for more in RSI? There certainly is on CCI, 200 being achieved in recent highs. Horizontal short term resistance went today, which is less significant in my opinion, except that 9800 went...
I'm biased, admittedly, but 9900 looks entirely reasonable. As ever, tomorrow will tell.

 

[china white]

Skim, many thx - I think the prob will b solved now!

lads/lasses - sorry for this whole chart size discussion and my daft Qs! reminds me the sort of chats junior traders have with IT support on the floor.... just goes to prove the adage that traders' IT skills have not changed since 1920ies.... Sorry!

 

[ChartMan]

No time for a long report. The chart is annotated and you should be able to figure it from there.
Major points. Bear flag failed big time at the open. I was thrown by the RSI formation that I would normally associate with a good break out, with the slope change.That broke down at 16:20 . Aha I thought, a "dip n fly" triangle break, but that didn't happen either. Well, actually it did, sort of, but not how I expect them to happen. Far too much time delay. They normally go off in a few minutes, not an hour.
Check RSI strengthen the 3 sections of the Bull Flag.
Your exit should have been just after the third peak, and worth a hold right into the close, waiting for 9800 to fail....but didn't.
Not a lot of points, but a nice ride up. Close at HOD could = more tomorrow. Nice steady move today should mean less sideways action tomorrow. SR for today was 9732 and 9764 from yesterday. It's no surprise that when 64 went, it took off.

 

[ChartMan]

CW, I didn't find ES vol too helpful today on that bottom at 12:10. However, CCI on the DOW went lower than low, but price held support. More importantly, it was at the magic 32. I've long since given up on tick / trin. Too much for my addled brain. I'd like to go down the Skim rout ( and others that are trying) of price and vol only. Trouble is I'm so set in my ways, I couldn't face the learning curve. Taking ES vol as a second confirmation at bottoms where there is clear divergence in volume is more than adequate for my simple needs. I recognise it is an art and a beautiful skill, but it's not for me.

 

[china white]

CM - completely agree - there r quite a few bits and bobs round, and I too find it hard to watch all those things..... Even more importantly, I do think that say a 70% accurate trading methodology based on X number of signals, is safer for our brains than an 80% accurate one based on 2X signals.... Still I find it hard to trade as an individual basing only on price and vol. Obviously as a pro on the floor who knows WHICH volume is WHOSE it is quite a different story....

 

[Bill]

Interesting point about price/volume analysis.

Maybe Skim could be persuaded to post an EOD price/vol analysis on here aswell.....?


Bill

 

[ChartMan]

The trend took a knock today with the figures at 7pm.Should I ignore the big dip in RSI? CCI is still holding the RS Switch from yesterday, so I've no reason to say other than we are still in the channel. See my comments on the 1 min charts.

 

[Bill]

I've got a question directed at anyone who has a view on the matter.

I feel that support and resistance [or lack of it in some cases] played a significant role in todays action on the Dow and would like to understand better how to find where these levels are likely to be.

Before the start I usually draw on my chart any channels I feel may be significant but very little else. Today the 9810 level provided significant S&R whereas 9800 did not put up much of a fight. It was crossed 4 times without breaking step which surprised me and caused me one bad trade [amply recovered later in the day].

So back to the subject. What levels are significant? Here are a few suggestions, delete as applicable.

Yesterdays close?
Yesterdays open?
Yearly high/low?
What about monthly and weekly high/low?
S&P previous day high/low? [noticed 1043 was hit today and caused a bounce]

Say anything you like. Am I barking up the wrong tree [or just barking].

Are there any web addresses I should look at?

All constructive contributions gratefully received.

Bill

PS Magic No's info already noted

 

[ChartMan]

Easy entry off yesterday's support at 9780.... and a track upto 9832 where T1 was clearly going to fail... You can see that we had an ND top, and the magic 32 test that failed. Now you can see that the triangle apex coincided with the support found at 9810. Should you have gone for a reversal at the ND top? Tough call....but on balance yes. Reason? We know that an ND top is a close. Added to that our expectation of T1 and the fact that there was no break through 32 should have persuaded us that it was safe. Worst case stop loss at 9850, realistic stop loss at 9835 ish. Taking the short would have turned out a good trade. The next entry would have been really hard, unless you were minded to short the 9810 failure... Up until 19:24, 9810 looked as if it was going to hold.The dip to 9763 and subsequent rise on news has been documented before... the recovery to status quo. In this case the dashed continuation line of the downtrend.
Not what I had expected yesterday... the net result seems to be 50 points lower than expectation.
If anyone is unsure about their trading style, in particular from a 1 min chart, there is an excellent thread running about ES and 5/10 min trading entitled " Skim, What do you think about this"

 

[bgold]

CM, thank you once again. Having followed (and dipped in/out market at admittedly a small loss), it does help to get your daily review. Very educational. Thanks also for PM reply.

Today I managed to get short at around 3pm and square 20pts lower. Too bad that I then gave my gains+ back in several small trades (eg didnot follow CM's discipline) but failed to get involved at the right moments (eg long before 6pm - kept fighting the up trend - and short after 6pm ).
After 5pm, I clearly identified the ND Tops and my chart showed a continuation of lower tops in RSI. Meanwhile DOW bounced from 6-7:15 in channel between 9810-9825. And guess what? Just as I get briefly distracted (reading kids a bedstories) the market breaks down. And I just couldn't get involved anymore? Why? As they say, it's between the ears, isn't?

So, take it from me that
1. if I hadnot put my girls to bed, the market had continued its range trading(?), and
2. I still need to acquire many more skills to sense sentiment change as well as improve concentration to sit out the session.

CM/CW, would you have any recommendations? Or is it just lot's of practice?
Thanks & goodnight.

 

[Quercus]

Many thanks for everyones advice on this and other threads - I'm learning lots. Can anyone help me as to what platform to use to trade the dow as I'm currently using D4F with their dodgy charts and iffy pricing! Better to do this off thread so feel free to PM me anyone. Sorry about the time difference I'm in NZ!

 

[ChartMan]

Quercus . You need Sierra Charts + a data feed from MyTrack. Sierra.com and mytrack.com
You could try finspreads.com as a platform..... none of the SB companies has very good charting packages.

Bgold . It's down to experience. I can tell you for a fact that you need 100% concentration. 95% is no good, as you have found out putting the kids to bed. I had the same problem trying to run my business and trade as well. It just ended in me making ( suffering) some appaling mistakes and subsequent losses. Now, I have come to terms with that. Either you don't , or you close a trade at the point where you have to do something else, and walk away with whatever you have. Chasing what you missed, or a loss that came about through being away from the screen is the worst thing you could have done. Next time, turn it all off and walk away until tomorrow. Fresh mind , fresh start, clean sheet.

Bill S&R is ( can be) very subjective. This is why we all have different ideas.You must be aware of the primary( current channel) and you need to follow through yesterday's SR values. Finding that S/R is at 9810 and not 9800 is one of life's mysteries! Taking care at 32 and 64 is always tricky. I always try to find one other reason to support an idea or position, be it ND, RSI strength, ES Volume, targets etc. Knowledge and skill in the interpretation of price action at any given moment in time is a balance of historic interpretation, current action and some guesswork. This is why it is so important to do your homework and keep in mind where the action was yesterday. It may have no relevance in today's action, it may be pivotal. You will never know untill you arrive there.

 

[picker]

slight pull back before we rise

Chartman, yes an ascending triangle but expect a possible slight pull back before the continued rise!! Happy trading.

 

[Bill]

CM thanks for the reply.

Just a couple of observations. This does not specifacally need a response [unless you want to give one]. Don't want to burden you with having to write lengthy replies in addition to your daily analysis.

I take on board what you say about S&R and can sort of see why the first long was an "Easy entry off yesterday's support at 9780" as you say. The fact is that this went totally over my head, was it really so obvious? Am I that thick? [don't answer that] .

Whilst 9780 provided support at 15:30 when we get to 19:50ish the support is nowhere to be seen, blown away by the bear flag target. Bit of res on the way up though.

Getting this right real time is so difficult...

Bill

 

[ChartMan]

Bill It's only obvious if you were looking for a long entry. If you were loking to go short somewhere, you'd have probably missed the clues. Hence why people say go in with an open mind. I find it is easier to sit back and wait for a top or bottom opportunity, hence I was looking for a bottom around 9780.....
The reason 9780 didn't provide support at 19:50 was because the market was in free fall, but hey, it was only 15 points off. In the scale of things, that was support. You can't say SR is going to be +/- 1 point , there has to be an "area" where you can expect it. 32 and 64 crops up a lot as you know. One day it might me 35/36, another 28/29. That's close enough. This is an art, not a science and you have to make allowances.

 

[Quercus]

Chartman
Thanks for the help and all the notes. I'll look those guys up and take it from there!
In the meantime, happy trading
Quercus

 

[ChartMan]

tripple bottom at 9730... long at 40 break, stop at 29....

 

[ChartMan]

stop moved to 9750/ 1045 ES

 

[ChartMan]

news spike?

 

[oatman]

Dunno, but it left me standing, didn't arf motor :cheesy: