Dow Intraday charts 08/Mar - 12/Mar

[mombasa]

Good dpot on the 60 min TS - I'm long from 10,460 on the PD. Been shorting on 100 MA bounces up till now.

 

[tradesmart]

Mom, the above post was sent about ½ hour before the time it registered on T2W – odd…! Chart looks quite different now……

Closed the 468 long at 490 when it stalled just above the 100ma; now flat - this may want to test 420, seems very weak…..anyway, will see what happens…..

Good Luck

 

[mombasa]

TS - I closed for a couple of points 'cos was heading home and it all lookd very weak - lesson here is don't go looking to reverse on divergence when its trending.

 

[tradesmart]

Mom, glad that you made a profit :cheesy: - a difficult day - I was expecting a decent bounce that would stick earlier, but plainly another 'short all day' job.......

easy with hindsight.....

edit:- have taken a small long at 435 to hold for a day or so in case this proves to be a "significant low" (breakeven stop)

750 here we come....!!....(I can 'wishful think' with the best of 'em... )

 

[bgold]

Top and bottom pickers become cotton pickers!!! That's is/was slogan in the Chicago pit.
After a boost of confidence yesterday, ego is back in box, having picked the bottom 2x and top 1x. Tight stops kept damage within reason but trading plan stipulates quit after 3x losers.

Now, in terms of elliott waves SPX should find bottom at these levels 1135-37 and produce at least a strong countertrend rally wave (iv) targetting 1151 and on DOW charts I do see PD is RSI and on CCI (150).
High time to follow CM's rules and try to go long once again upon breach or confirmation of crossing of 100ema, which is happening as I write this. Having seen dow cross 100ema about 6times , i'll wait for confirmation.

 

[ChartMan]

Coming off a bottom looking for a 100MA cross, you should wait for either a pullback or HH+HL. That happened just after 20:44- too late to act on.
I haven't commented on this for a long long time, but it looks like a case of too much too quick, in relation to recent movements. So, we should go up. Divergence all day in RSI, but then that can take 3 days to come good... CCI outrageously oversold. When was the last time it made -300?

 

[ChartMan]

Nothing but a short all the way down, with every pullback just touching the 100MA without any conviction of a break.... until the close.

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
FWIW here's a couple of thoughts.

The 10400 'ish support looks kinda key; if this goes then maybe a retest of 10k is on?
Today there was a test of T5.
Also, ND1 and the breech of T6 on the RSI seem to suggest a move south?

Then again maybe the news will mess it all up again

Cheers,
Neil

 

[bgold]

all depends on timeframe!
I would agree with CM that on the 10min charts it looks a bit oversold. PD in RSI and CCI may point to a bounce sometime soon.

 

[tradesmart]

Latest attempt at channel lines; a slightly dubious fit, but might have some relevance………..

After falling over 200 points in two sessions, maybe we’re due a decent bounce..........

However, we don't seem to have a solid bottoming pattern, so will be watching for a possible retest of 420 before any serious recovery (pure speculation of course........ )

 

[mombasa]

5 min showing a nice dbl bottom with divergence - unless it turns into a h&s - not sure u can have an h&s at the bottom of a trend tho ...

 

[bracke]

ChartMan

I would be obliged if you could tell me what the Commodity Channel Index is and it's relevance to the DOW. Thank you

Regards

bracke

 

[ChartMan]

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/commodity_channel_index.htm

I don't use it very much, some do.....

 

[bracke]

ChartMan

Thank you for your reply and the link.

It looks very similar to MACD and Bollinger Bands.

It occurs to me that there are as many indicators/ indicator combinations as analysts!

Perhaps you should design one yourself, or maybe you have already.

Regards

bracke

 

[tradesmart]

Mini inv H & S forming just above the 100ma on the 1min chart with a target of 480....?!

Nasdaq Comp seems to lead the way up and down these days..

ps double-bottom at 420 - poss target 525?

edit - some Mini inv H & S...!......2mins after post, the r/shoulder dropped off........

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Triangle in the process of forming on the 1 min anyone........?

 

[tradesmart]

Yeh OES....flat topped at 460 ish/ lower line linking today's lows 420/430........?...will see how it pans out.....would assume a break to the upside, but too early for certainties..

edit - as soon as you speculate on the geometry, it does something different....!? retest of 420 now.....it really doesn't trust that level.....

 

[tradesmart]

Triangle development…!…….as we’re at an apparent bottom, I normally associate this type of triangle with a break to the upside, but as usual, trading what I see……

 

[mombasa]

Triangle more obvious on 5 min - no divergence and since its a descending tri, I'm expecting it to break to the downside.

Right, everybody, go long now

 

[tradesmart]

Mom - simultaneous posts/divergence of views.........LOL..!