Thursday 9th September 2004
The fouth 60 something range day on the trot. Happy days. Not. Anyway, here's how it went for me.
9:50 back at 100 ema after early move up but just 10 mins to economic numbers release. Then drops below.
10:08 Drifts down mildly after numbers without any significant volume towards yesterdays low. More numbers at 10:30 so may leave it alone whilst it remains so uncertain as to direction. Still hasn't made it to 20 points either side of 100 ema.
10:26 Strong bounce up to 100 ema ahead of numbers but still no numbers. If we don't get some direction soon I'm going to look at fading moves away from ema instead of pullbacks to it. Up through 100 ema on news. Then straight back down and after a few more wiggles back to LOD, then takes out LOD/yesterday's LOD but still no volume. 300 level next.
10:48 Breaks 20 below 100 ema for the first time since about this time yesterday. Then springs up again. Fails at 300 and drops. I guess the evidence is that we are in a downtrend here but it doesn't feel very convincing to me.
11:00 Back above 300 but drops sharply off 305 level (earlier support) and with some volume this time. Now we're going down for real but I missed entry short as I was waiting for it to get closer to the 100 ema and it turned so quickly. I was very reluctant to chase in case it was another flip flop move.
11:28 Continues to move down nicely with new lows. Can't believe I've waited so long for the market to start moving and then completely missed the entry. Lower volume on this drop and first PD on CCI.
11:47 New LOD but triple PD on CCI so first good exit around 10274 if I was short (+20-25). Then again it could just be a bear flag before another move down. Sadly, it's just academic to me. Even clearer PD at 12:00 (volume divergence on ES too).
12:11 DJ back to its 100 ema as ES pulls above. Now I have a dilemma - look to get in late on a short or stay clear because of the triple divergence (I got burned entering short after a triple PD on Monday).
12:16 Decide to stay out having failed to grab the earlier points - but it is charging back down. Not much volume this time and prices a bit jumpy. Then roars back up. And down as 100 ema holds a second time in rapid succession. Boy!
12:33 Third upside attempt on the 100 ema. And fails again. Forming triangle. Which breaks to downside. Well, I've had enough opportunities to get short! Must have lost my nerve. But wait, again it springs back up. This is messy. 5th attempt at 100 ema. Breaks above the other 4 highs this time. OK - this time the up move might be for real. Nice to see it take out 100 ema +20 for clear signal to look for longs. But ugly ugly reversal bars before it hits 300 level. Maybe that was just a big tease.
13:15 TRADE ENTRY: Long at 10292 after consolidation above 100 ema. A bit premature as it hasn't taken out 300 yet. Moves up to 300 and, predictably, stalls with first ND - not a good sign. Futures all look pretty strong though. Now needs to take out 305 (earlier S/R) and push hard up wards. Nope, 305 sends it crashing back on first attempt, with some volume too. Has another go and gets through with some decent volume but now heavily O/B. Ugly reversal down then another push up that falls short of earlier highs and drops even more quickly.Need some consolidation here to preserve the long.
13:47 Another push up fails to trouble last highs. Stalls again right at 305 level. Making me nervous here. And dropping. 100 ema needs to hold it or this long is dead. And into loss as it cuts straight through ema. Arrgghhh!
14:06 Pulls back to 100 ema from below but looks like a big ugly bear flag before a drop down to new LOD. Yep, down it comes. Oh boy, this is horrible.
14:21 Possible TLB to the upside (on price and indicators) although volume not great (but then it wasn't coming down). Needs to start taking out some swing highs. Back towards 300 and above 100 ema but not holding. Interesting that DJ and YM lagged both ES and NQ in up move as they came close to their earlier highs (equivalent to 310 level on DJ). And down they all come - with YM leading the way.
14:40 Possible PD off low (but really clutching at straws here). Moves back above 100 ema. This time it needs to hold. YM/DJ definitely weaker than ES/NQ which are moving up nicely and have both taken out 13:26 highs and hit new HODs. YM/DJ do not want to seem to go up. Last up, first down, every time.
15:00 YM and DJ very volatile as 13:36 swing high approached. It's like they are being pulled up, kicking and screaming, by the ES/NQ and will bolt back down on any slight excuse.
15:22 And down they crash below 100 ema without even taking out the 13:26 high, let alone the early HOD.
15:35 Bounces off support and up to 100 ema once again. Less than 30 minutes left in another 60 something point range day (so far) so I'm going to cut this if it starts dropping hard again.
14:47 TRADE EXIT: -2. What a joke.
-2 from 1
-20 for September so far (6 trading days)
I cannot seem to buy a winning trade at the moment. I think I've had as many losers in the six days of September as in the previous 6 trading weeks. And I know I missed a twenty pointer or so this morning but I've had just one decent winner in the month so far. I haven't changed anything significantly about the way I trade so assume it's just down to a tough market right now. Pain in the backside though.
