Dow Intraday charts 07/Feb - 11/Feb

Missed the break to the upside right off the pivot.

10:17 1) L 10714. New HOD and stops to b/e. Then pulls back.
10:21 EXIT: B/e
[Alternative hypothetical exits: Trailing stop = B/e. Target at +6 hit, +12 not (average +2 from 3).]

10:55 2) S 10697. Nope. Going no where.
10:56 EXIT: -5. I was anticipating momentum rather than waiting for it to develop.
[Alternative hypothetical exits: Trailing stop = -5. Target at +6 not hit, +12 not (average -5 from 3).]

Drifting drifting. Slowly upwards but never felt fast enough to trade. Until I missed the explosion up just before 1:30 but I didn't see a decent entry.

13:46 3) L 10737. Just in case we actually get some follow through rather than one random spike. Stop to b/e at HOD. Charts lagging again - not very helpful. Stalls at 750 level and slams down again. Heavy resistance here looks likely to kill trade with three failed attempts to push through. No one ready to but over 750 yet. Flag should give T1 of about 770 to make my 30 points but I'm not optimistic. Just like yesterday the Dow will not follow through while the nasdaq and russell have no such reservations. And down she slides.
14:33 EXIT: B/e. Just give me a break here.
[Alternative hypothetical exits: Trailing stop = +7. Target at +6 hit, +12 hit (average +6 from 3).]

-5 from 3
-8 for the day after comms.
+87 for February so far after comms. (8 trading days)

Hypothetical alternative exits:
Using +6/+12/+30 targets = +3 average
Using swing high/low trailing stop = +2

It has been painful last couple of days actually getting into some good trades that seem certain to follow through only to have them keel over and run out of steam. If you haven't caught the first thrust there has been no further trending action. But that's just the way it is sometimes.

The challenge with periods like this is to preserve capital and wait for more favourable conditions. As I mentioned above, that means not trying to anticipate trends but waiting for clear action - something I struggle with.
 

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thanks tradertony
i mentioned my method of entry exit is elliott wave..most traders will say you can't make $ using elliott; and if only because the waves need to complete, the patterns need to have formed Before the count is countable, so to speak!
Fine, so look for chart patterns. these DO NOT RELY ON INDICATORS but rely on price action THE best measure for entry/exit in the long run. indicators will guide, re assure, etc. the ones you use are esoteric and i suggest of little real use to you. in the end they nearly all are trying to say the samr thing [ momentum increasing or slowing] since they are all [mostly] based on, yes, you guessed it, PRICE ACTION averaging relative to time [taken] etc
please have another look at the macd or the [alleged] leading indicator , RSI. Apart from the stochastic and the macd, everything else is bollox. Sorry but it's true. utter utter bollox. keep it simple. 1 indicator. the macd gives you 2 moving averages for the price of 1, as well..saves cluttering up your chart.
ok, so don't use elliott...chart patterns, when correctly identified, WORK. thats all we need to know!!!!!!
i repeat, chart patterns WORK...THAT'S ALL WE NEED TO KNOW!
go to www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/fallingwedge.html
this will show you in an instant why [with indicators confirming..look at my posts yesterday] a big UP day
the trend you were looking to identify was already in place [all but] the night before, so it would be a good idea to look for longs [yesterday] hence my earlier posts.
it took me 2 years to assimulate all the patterns...then i realised trading the ones i recognise with certainty was the way to go
then i spent another 2 years learning elliott to detremine when a pattern was likely to be for real, and not.
traders are always, for instance, seeing triangles at the top of a long wave up[down] and declaring big lifts are in the offing. they nearly always fail as they are either the bginnings of an expanded flat correction or an extension in wave A of an ending fifith diagonal . [yeah right. whatever!!!!]
be lucky, and stick to little and often, i suggest. trying to fil an empty bag with a handful of beans take time, paytience, humility, and an overriding belief that you'll succeed in losing far less beans this way than attempting to pile them in in one rush.
 

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Wellshot, your last post contains real gems, particularly this:-

It took me 2 years to assimulate all the patterns...then i realised trading the ones i recognise with certainty was the way to go...

There is a big clue here.

Your comments about indicators are spot on too, most are bollo, and you only need them as a secondary guide.....
 
Wellshot, much much appreciated , and I must also say To cultivate kindness is a valuable part of the business of life.
 
Excellent insights Wellshot.

I increasingly agree about indicators and no longer trade from them. I still keep averages as a quick visual on trend strength but increasingly view price bars for all decisions. The breakthrough for me was looking at so many indicators until I realised they all say the same thing if you fiddle with the settings. Divergence for slowing momentum seems to be about the only thing of possible value but is not currently part of my plan.
 
CCI on support and ES vol divergent so a long from here , stop at just under 700....
 
Out for an easy ton..... :cool:

Well done that man, and well done to Mystic Meg who is currently leading the Dow Comp.... :cheesy:

But unfortunately it's not over yet........ :confused:

The big (4hr) picture shows no sign of a 'top' yet on RSI or CCI, and the rising pattern of higher lows and higher highs goes on; so very likely there will be a test of resistance at 10875 ish imho.......
 

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Chartman

Can you tell me where you get your volume data from. is it set up in sierra chart?

Orky
 
If you want Dow volume you have to get it from the Dow future (YM) symbol Q`H in Sierra if you're using MyTrack for data.
Because the Dow future is not traded in nearly as much size as the S&P future (ES) some people prefer to look at ES volume as a proxy for the Dow. Symbol ES`H in Sierra.

Did you get your lines sorted orky?
 
Retest of highs on the cards? (Pretty please or my Grail long will be unhappy :()

Edit Grr it doesn't want to crawl back into the long up channel again, at least for the moment.

PS Wellshot I'm loving your gap analysis, in fact your charts in general. Nice one.
 

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I'm using ES volume...stop moved up to 800.... getting boring so time for an elderly cat nap :)
 
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