Dow Index
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fudgestain
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I have the holy grail.. the Dow is a zero sum game, the trend merely a decorative motif.
But I'm not the enemy of the trend; if its your guiding star and if you think it works for you, it works, period. So let the trend be your friend.. and may your material riches grow, Chartman.
But I'm not the enemy of the trend; if its your guiding star and if you think it works for you, it works, period. So let the trend be your friend.. and may your material riches grow, Chartman.
Hi FS,
The system I'm using for UK stocks now (WIlders Reaction Trend System) basically trades in the noise band of a stock. You don't make huge gains just a few points here and there but you do get a lot of wins compared to losers. However, that's not as sexy as chasing trends and going for big wins is it? I'm really suprised that "Noise trading" isn't more popular.
The system I'm using for UK stocks now (WIlders Reaction Trend System) basically trades in the noise band of a stock. You don't make huge gains just a few points here and there but you do get a lot of wins compared to losers. However, that's not as sexy as chasing trends and going for big wins is it? I'm really suprised that "Noise trading" isn't more popular.
fudgestain
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Hi Helenqu, what you say is particularly interesting.
If I take yesterday, the number of net points available was in the lower scale - 191 for all moves over the first hour and a half of the Dow.. this excludes moves of 5 points or less and also has 5 points deducted from each move fot the dealing cost. Now the number of net points available over the first hour and half can exceed 600. You can even get days in a row at 350 to 500 points for this one and half hour period. Without calculating exactly and sampling entire sessions one can suggest that the net points available over an entire Dow session average say 1300 points.
This reduces to peanuts the 400 trend points over days Chartman crows about in his post above - no offence whatsoever meant to him of course; the trend fixation absorbs almost everyone, guru, professional and amateur. Long may it continue for them - thats what they see; thats what they want!
If I take yesterday, the number of net points available was in the lower scale - 191 for all moves over the first hour and a half of the Dow.. this excludes moves of 5 points or less and also has 5 points deducted from each move fot the dealing cost. Now the number of net points available over the first hour and half can exceed 600. You can even get days in a row at 350 to 500 points for this one and half hour period. Without calculating exactly and sampling entire sessions one can suggest that the net points available over an entire Dow session average say 1300 points.
This reduces to peanuts the 400 trend points over days Chartman crows about in his post above - no offence whatsoever meant to him of course; the trend fixation absorbs almost everyone, guru, professional and amateur. Long may it continue for them - thats what they see; thats what they want!
Trouble is, it's easy with UK stocks to get that wobbling so you can get your profit with little risk, it's much less easy on indices. I've looked at it on SMI and ESTX futures but the risk is too high for my poor little account to stand comfortably so for now it's confined to my SBs 
fudgestain
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Again, Helenqu, a very sage insight, when you refer to "wobbling" as you put it.
Well the Dow is an index which can be 'cracked'; you can exploit both the large and small moves .. up and down.
As already pointed out the net points available on the Dow each day are richly abundant .. rather like standing outside a great orchard of large ripe fruit inside an impenetrable net fence with nowhere but nowhere to get in.
Far better that your poor little account should become a great big fat overstuffed swaggering self-important 'cornucopiac' moneybag :cheesy: .
Well the Dow is an index which can be 'cracked'; you can exploit both the large and small moves .. up and down.
As already pointed out the net points available on the Dow each day are richly abundant .. rather like standing outside a great orchard of large ripe fruit inside an impenetrable net fence with nowhere but nowhere to get in.
Far better that your poor little account
should become a great big fat overstuffed swaggering self-important 'cornucopiac' moneybag :cheesy: .Fudgestain,
I have been reading your posts with some interest, as I agree with many thing's u have said, I have had to read your posts a few times to understand all ..........but thats just me.
I too dont pay to much attention to trends, I also dont post much as the way I trade appears ''out of the ordinary'' compared to most.......this has taken years of work & study, basically I read the market day to day & take advantage of intraday moves.
many of the things u have said r quite refreshing, as they fit my own understandings.........but one thing I cant quite get my head round........& Please, Please forgive me if I have misunderstood!!:
u refer to the fact that u have found your 'holy grail'.........fair play to u for this, BUT, I cant understand why u keep mentioning this!
if there is a reason or I have missed the point, please say. but it seems u just keep dangling the carrot. It is great when people find their 'holy grail'........but then they should make a choice to enlighten people or keep quiet.........as a little information can be 'dangerous & frustrating' for those seeking it.
again forgive me if I have missed the point, but I do like to be honest & this one thing keeps sticking in my mind, I hope u can clear this up .
Jay
I have been reading your posts with some interest, as I agree with many thing's u have said, I have had to read your posts a few times to understand all ..........but thats just me.
I too dont pay to much attention to trends, I also dont post much as the way I trade appears ''out of the ordinary'' compared to most.......this has taken years of work & study, basically I read the market day to day & take advantage of intraday moves.
many of the things u have said r quite refreshing, as they fit my own understandings.........but one thing I cant quite get my head round........& Please, Please forgive me if I have misunderstood!!:
u refer to the fact that u have found your 'holy grail'.........fair play to u for this, BUT, I cant understand why u keep mentioning this!
if there is a reason or I have missed the point, please say. but it seems u just keep dangling the carrot. It is great when people find their 'holy grail'........but then they should make a choice to enlighten people or keep quiet.........as a little information can be 'dangerous & frustrating' for those seeking it.
again forgive me if I have missed the point, but I do like to be honest & this one thing keeps sticking in my mind, I hope u can clear this up .
Jay
delboy trotter
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One vote for JayGE.
It seems to be a regular occurrence on this board lately, where we have new members come along and talk in a convoluted way. Saying a lot and at the same time saying nothing. If you have a secret strategy for beating the markets, then please keep it to yourself and do not come on this board and boast about how great you are. If you want to share you're strategies with the rest of us commoners, then fine. If it is a secret that you got from a friend and you have promised not to divulge it, then why bother mentioning it at all. It's not clever or impressive.
Does anyone on this board really think that they have a strategy that is so successful that it would affect the markets and would have to remain a "secret"?
Get real!!!
dbt
It seems to be a regular occurrence on this board lately, where we have new members come along and talk in a convoluted way. Saying a lot and at the same time saying nothing. If you have a secret strategy for beating the markets, then please keep it to yourself and do not come on this board and boast about how great you are. If you want to share you're strategies with the rest of us commoners, then fine. If it is a secret that you got from a friend and you have promised not to divulge it, then why bother mentioning it at all. It's not clever or impressive.
Does anyone on this board really think that they have a strategy that is so successful that it would affect the markets and would have to remain a "secret"?
Get real!!!
dbt
fudgestain
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JayGE and delboy trotter.
Don't believe I do keep on mentioning my possession of the 'holy grail'. Skimbleshanks first used the term in a post replying to me.
This thread is to discuss an aspect of trading strategies and was started by me in the quiet surrounds of the Contemplating Trading Strategies forum. Also I wanted to get away from the dogfights in this forum.
Alas this and another strategies thread I started has been moved here and sure enough the pack dogs have arrived.
Unless staked in the thousands (or millions), why should a strategy that is so successful affect the markets delboy trotter? You GET REAL chum!
Don't believe I do keep on mentioning my possession of the 'holy grail'. Skimbleshanks first used the term in a post replying to me.
This thread is to discuss an aspect of trading strategies and was started by me in the quiet surrounds of the Contemplating Trading Strategies forum. Also I wanted to get away from the dogfights in this forum.
Alas this and another strategies thread I started has been moved here and sure enough the pack dogs have arrived.
Unless staked in the thousands (or millions), why should a strategy that is so successful affect the markets delboy trotter? You GET REAL chum!
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A number of good points have been brought up here , let me chip in if I may :
1) There is most definitely an undercurrent of jealousy , fear and ego on this and every other financial BB. This is not strange and this board is no worse than any other .
Human nature is such , and in the finance world , these traits are amplified more than in the real world. you can't change human nature
2) What can be do though is to encourage debate and counter debate - from vigourous debate can we learn more .
people can come and make whatever claim they want but it needs to be backed up with evidence of some sort otherwise it is hearsay and only that.
people will no doubt counter claims ( with good evidence hopefully ) which they feel are dubious and I think most of the board will want this - so they can make up their own mind as to what are the facts.
1) There is most definitely an undercurrent of jealousy , fear and ego on this and every other financial BB. This is not strange and this board is no worse than any other .
Human nature is such , and in the finance world , these traits are amplified more than in the real world. you can't change human nature
2) What can be do though is to encourage debate and counter debate - from vigourous debate can we learn more .
people can come and make whatever claim they want but it needs to be backed up with evidence of some sort otherwise it is hearsay and only that.
people will no doubt counter claims ( with good evidence hopefully ) which they feel are dubious and I think most of the board will want this - so they can make up their own mind as to what are the facts.
Fudgestain
again what I said has been taken out of context & the point missed, I have had a negative vote & been labeled a ''pack dog'' for making an honest enquiry.
this is why I do not post on this website often & am beginning to regret this last one.
my question was asked because of a genuine reason & lack of understanding of the point u were trying to make, as i said 'I agree' with a lot of the points u made, but wanted clarication on the obvious strategy point u keep making...........this is no way intended as an insult..........just a question!......u r probably unaware of how some of your comments came across to some people ( me anyway) as I often make 'comments' that r misunderstood, but I am humble enough to accept that & clarify things when people ask me.
I find it a shame that u have considered this as an attack, it was not meant as one.
I believe if people open discussions & make statements ( nothing wrong with this) .......they should be at least willing to 'catch a few tomatoes' or answer genuine questions.
guess this is just my perspective, but I think the more enlightened we are , the more patient we should be with others & their questions...after all isn't this how we all learn at the end of the day & ' the only silly question is the one that isn't asked'
If u feel u do not wish to answer my initial question, I will understand, but still hope u can. I also hope we can exchange opinions without insult.
regards
Jay
again what I said has been taken out of context & the point missed, I have had a negative vote & been labeled a ''pack dog'' for making an honest enquiry.
this is why I do not post on this website often & am beginning to regret this last one.
my question was asked because of a genuine reason & lack of understanding of the point u were trying to make, as i said 'I agree' with a lot of the points u made, but wanted clarication on the obvious strategy point u keep making...........this is no way intended as an insult..........just a question!......u r probably unaware of how some of your comments came across to some people ( me anyway) as I often make 'comments' that r misunderstood, but I am humble enough to accept that & clarify things when people ask me.
I find it a shame that u have considered this as an attack, it was not meant as one.
I believe if people open discussions & make statements ( nothing wrong with this) .......they should be at least willing to 'catch a few tomatoes' or answer genuine questions.
guess this is just my perspective, but I think the more enlightened we are , the more patient we should be with others & their questions...after all isn't this how we all learn at the end of the day & ' the only silly question is the one that isn't asked'
If u feel u do not wish to answer my initial question, I will understand, but still hope u can. I also hope we can exchange opinions without insult.
regards
Jay
fudgestain
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JayGE, with respect, you accused me of "dangling a carrot". And why should I (or anyone) be willing to catch a few tomatoes .. please! If some one wants to have a 'go' at me .. then if I choose I can and will give them both barrels - back. As it happens, like many other studious or serious players, I will discuss various aspects of trading strategies and disclose a lot of things I do; but I don't serve up the "holy grail".
I don't seek to know anyone else's own private system. Sure if they want to disclose all or part of it .. well its a free country. But I have no intention of revealing the "holy grail" .. save that I have already given the baseline answer: the Dow is a zero sum game. Let me say again that the term "holy grail" comes from Skimbleshanks - not from me!
There is a lot of "noise" on financial BB's. My advice to the level-headed curious: make you own contribution to a discussion and don't tell me or others what they can and can't say .. obvious manners of course. One of greatest pieces of nonsense - happens all the time - comes when someone demands that you back up what you say. By all means ask a question.. let the person asked decide if he wants to answer or not.
Best practice is to let contributors always decide to what extent, if at all, they want to back up what they say. Hell, you can have a feeling or an opinion without writing a treatise about it .. bottom line: life is too short to be jacking around bickering.
I don't seek to know anyone else's own private system. Sure if they want to disclose all or part of it .. well its a free country. But I have no intention of revealing the "holy grail" .. save that I have already given the baseline answer: the Dow is a zero sum game. Let me say again that the term "holy grail" comes from Skimbleshanks - not from me!
There is a lot of "noise" on financial BB's. My advice to the level-headed curious: make you own contribution to a discussion and don't tell me or others what they can and can't say .. obvious manners of course. One of greatest pieces of nonsense - happens all the time - comes when someone demands that you back up what you say. By all means ask a question.. let the person asked decide if he wants to answer or not.
Best practice is to let contributors always decide to what extent, if at all, they want to back up what they say. Hell, you can have a feeling or an opinion without writing a treatise about it .. bottom line: life is too short to be jacking around bickering.
* One of greatest pieces of nonsense - happens all the time - comes when someone demands that you back up what you say. By all means ask a question.. let the person asked decide if he wants to answer or not. *
Actually it's called making good sense .
If I say to all - come on my course and you will for sure make 10 x your capital in a month , and I offer not one shred of evidence to back this up . people will rightly question my claim , and if I chose not to answer or give anything like a remotely honest reply , then they would be right not to take me seriously.
Give me 1 reason what's wrong with this ?
* Best practice is to let contributors always decide to what extent, if at all, they want to back up what they say. Hell, you can have a feeling or an opinion without writing a treatise about it .. bottom line: life is too short to be jacking around bickering *
And by the same token - you can back or not back up what you say , as long as you are willing to let others do the same - why cannot questions be asked of one's claims , I don't see anything wrong with that . surely you won't deny others the same laws of conversation as you would have ?
If it is a feeling or view about the market - why not say so ! I think very few would want to hear a treatise . a gut feel about market direction is a very valid reason , been done for years .
This is not directed at your system, which you have a right not to disclose , but at your comments highlighted.
Actually it's called making good sense .
If I say to all - come on my course and you will for sure make 10 x your capital in a month , and I offer not one shred of evidence to back this up . people will rightly question my claim , and if I chose not to answer or give anything like a remotely honest reply , then they would be right not to take me seriously.
Give me 1 reason what's wrong with this ?
* Best practice is to let contributors always decide to what extent, if at all, they want to back up what they say. Hell, you can have a feeling or an opinion without writing a treatise about it .. bottom line: life is too short to be jacking around bickering *
And by the same token - you can back or not back up what you say , as long as you are willing to let others do the same - why cannot questions be asked of one's claims , I don't see anything wrong with that . surely you won't deny others the same laws of conversation as you would have ?
If it is a feeling or view about the market - why not say so ! I think very few would want to hear a treatise . a gut feel about market direction is a very valid reason , been done for years .
This is not directed at your system, which you have a right not to disclose , but at your comments highlighted.
delboy trotter
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"I'm surprised to find anyone who might travel a remotely similar road to myself in life - at any time"
"But I have no intention of revealing the "holy grail" .. save that I have already given the baseline answer: the Dow is a zero sum game."
Humility is not one of your strong points is it Fudgie?
dbt
"But I have no intention of revealing the "holy grail" .. save that I have already given the baseline answer: the Dow is a zero sum game."
Humility is not one of your strong points is it Fudgie?
dbt
fudgestain
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Research by Delboy trotter .. on the way to the "holy grail" and learning so fast. Sweet.
fudgestain
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mma, you digress.
Paying to go on some idiot course claiming some sort of profitable outcome .. certainly you want back-up or evidence; please be sensible!
"..why cannot questions be asked.. ", you say. Now where did I say you cannot? Please, lets move on, eh?
Do you have anything to add to actual subject of this thread?
Paying to go on some idiot course claiming some sort of profitable outcome .. certainly you want back-up or evidence; please be sensible!
"..why cannot questions be asked.. ", you say. Now where did I say you cannot? Please, lets move on, eh?
Do you have anything to add to actual subject of this thread?
Fudgestain
yes I did say ''dangling a carrot''. & as this is how it appeared to come across, but I also said 'if I misunderstood'' ( as we all can sometimes) please forgive me.
I am not asking for claims to back up your system , nor do I want to know the details of your system, I work to my own strategy which I am happy with. what I was referring to was the way what u were saying appears to come across.
I put up the post because I would imagine there r many people searching these boards for info to help with their trading, so they can have a better quality of life for 'them & theirs'! & why shouldn't they. If u have found your '' holy grail'' I am pleased for u, but snippets of info like u posted could prove quite destructive for others searching for theirs. & as I said people who r more enlightened should have more patience & humility for those still searching.
I was just wanting u to clarify certain points, I was not 'having a go' !
I sometimes say things that are misunderstood & I am grateful when somebody points this out, who-ever it may be........then I know others understand me.
yes I know life is short, & I didn't join this site to bicker, just wanted a response to what I thought was a genuine & fair question.........I thought this was what open discussion boards were all about
Jay
yes I did say ''dangling a carrot''. & as this is how it appeared to come across, but I also said 'if I misunderstood'' ( as we all can sometimes) please forgive me.
I am not asking for claims to back up your system , nor do I want to know the details of your system, I work to my own strategy which I am happy with. what I was referring to was the way what u were saying appears to come across.
I put up the post because I would imagine there r many people searching these boards for info to help with their trading, so they can have a better quality of life for 'them & theirs'! & why shouldn't they. If u have found your '' holy grail'' I am pleased for u, but snippets of info like u posted could prove quite destructive for others searching for theirs. & as I said people who r more enlightened should have more patience & humility for those still searching.
I was just wanting u to clarify certain points, I was not 'having a go' !
I sometimes say things that are misunderstood & I am grateful when somebody points this out, who-ever it may be........then I know others understand me.
yes I know life is short, & I didn't join this site to bicker, just wanted a response to what I thought was a genuine & fair question.........I thought this was what open discussion boards were all about
Jay
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