Dow 2009

[N Rothschild]

Short from 9050 open target

 

[arabianights]

just blew a bit trying to work out how to do a guaranteed stop properly and will have to brave CMC Markets customer service to see what I can get back.

done the same as you genics but without a guaranteed stop on a better spread betting provider

 

[N Rothschild]

shouldnt need a guaranteed stop if you shorted the futures on the spread bet, as the markets will re-open sunday and stop you out sunday night/monday morning, it wont gap, only the cash market actually gaps. the pre market futures action is the "gap"

oh and i switched from cmc there ****, use ig now so the above would apply

 

[arabianights]

futures can gap surely... although I'm happy enough as much more likely to gap in my favour I'd have thought.

 

[N Rothschild]

i dont think they can, as you cant put in any orders untill globex re-opens on sunday night. i may be wrong tho..yeh i think we have some good downside potential here, ran into a major trend line, double top and overbought with thin volume. im targeting 8000 over the next week or 2

 

[arabianights]

sure but globex must have an opening auction, no? I'll settle for 8500

 

[Atilla]

Short from 9050 open target

Good call Genics... Patients paid off.

I reckon bears are testing the bulls. I think we have more rises to come but still prefer to sit it out for the first few days.

First trading day of 2009... Nice one. :cheers:

 

[KUTERO]

Break the chain..Open the road..
Party for Mr.Obama

 

[sullystocks]

Hi folks - New to forum and trading. Currently 9027 short on Dow. Do you think this is a good trade or could it stop me out when market opens Sunday night?

 

[N Rothschild]

for all those bottom pickers out there, the bottom on the 2001-2002 recesion took about a year before heading north again..so i wouldnt get to carried away with the idea we are suddenly going to rally back to where we were only after a month or 2 at these levels.

 

[N Rothschild]

Hi folks - New to forum and trading. Currently 9027 short on Dow. Do you think this is a good trade or could it stop me out when market opens Sunday night?

Should be a good trade (famous last words)

 

[Atilla]

Hi folks - New to forum and trading. Currently 9027 short on Dow. Do you think this is a good trade or could it stop me out when market opens Sunday night?

I have it testing the highs further. Bulls have got to carry this surge forward.

We've had two tests of 9000 since the lows and this third attemp has breached that level. IMO Look at price action and ignore the indicators for the time being - which can drag along for some time at extended overbought / oversold levels.

Good luck.

 

[francisfinley]

cool, yes no signs of slowing this little run, need to look for the big kahuna where everyone jumps off, obviously 9000 would be it. will wait to see on the other side... looking for a sell opportunity.

Still waiting for a sell opportunity.

Fridays drop was last minute profit taking, it occurred in the last 5 minutes. Not in yet.

"R1 @ 9065
R2 @ 9160"
spot on pivots on that post Atilla! Where did you get those from?

 

[N Rothschild]

this is just my opinion but this rally has been low volume and i think its short covering from people who were expecting the market to have fallen already and are cutting there losses..lets see what happens monday when the volume picks up again

 

[N Rothschild]

--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
($50 X S&P 500 INDEX) OPEN INTEREST: 2,276,969
COMMITMENTS
459,826 225,195 22,483 1567113 1878419 2049422 2126097 227,547 150,872

CHANGES FROM 12/16/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,537,575)
-119,568 -90,323 -55,206 -1360330 -1252059 -1535104 -1397588 -2,471 -139,987

not the easiest to read but total figures are 2,049,422 to the long side, 2,126,097 to the short

commitment of traders from just before xmass for the S&P, weighted on the short side..as i said i think we are just shaking out a few shorts at the moment who expected the markets to be lower by now

 

[N Rothschild]

Futures positions for the start of December 2008

BANK BANK LONG SHORT OPEN
DATE COMMODITY TYPE COUNT FUTURES % FUTURES % INTEREST


12/02/08 CBT 2-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES U.S. 5 5,458 1.1 29,128 5.9 496,148
NON U.S. 26 42,554 8.6 43,698 8.8
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
31 48,012 9.7 72,826 14.7

12/02/08 CBT 10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES U.S. 3 8,257 0.7 13,189 1.2 1,120,868
NON U.S. 26 56,593 5.0 47,278 4.2
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
29 64,850 5.8 60,467 5.4

12/02/08 CBT 5-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES U.S. 4 18,883 1.7 20,079 1.9 1,080,985
NON U.S. 23 94,738 8.8 19,912 1.8


Compared with almost a year ago,

BANK BANK LONG SHORT OPEN
DATE COMMODITY TYPE COUNT FUTURES % FUTURES % INTEREST
01/08/08 CBT 2-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES U.S. 3 33,730 3.3 22,841 2.2 1,036,600
NON U.S. 42 71,834 6.9 83,593 8.1
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
45 105,564 10.2 106,434 10.3

01/08/08 CBT 10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES U.S. 6 46,327 2.0 20,045 0.9 2,290,428
NON U.S. 47 87,432 3.8 224,889 9.8
---- --------- ---- --------- ----
53 133,759 5.8 244,934 10.7

01/08/08 CBT 5-YEAR U.S. TREASURY NOTES U.S. 6 36,420 1.9 41,542 2.2 1,890,947
NON U.S. 37 178,818 9.5 88,489 4.7
---- --------- ---- --------- ----


quite a drop in positions with in the notes from US banks, its all foreign banks buying the notes now, and if us banks arn't buying up treasury's..what does that say

urgg ****in format

 

[wallstreet1928]

i like your quote from Rothschild Mr Genics............

so how did you get your hands on that data, care to share the source with me please?

thanks

 

[Bloodhound]

Long @ 922.70
1st target 928
2nd target 930

KJ

 

[wallstreet1928]

and your stop loss is.....you should always provide a stop loss my friend!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Apologies - 920