Dow 2006

[mark twain uk]

richb,

I read somewhere that trading should be boring, if you get excited about it then you are overtrading. Open smaller positions and try not to risk more than 2% of your trading pot on the position. If you are risking more than that you could be wiped out in a week by an up spike and become poorb. I am short too, but can afford a move of 100 points against me without losing much sleep. I would feel silly, but it would not be the end of the world.

Back to your question: where is the dow heading? It could go either way. Some people think that it's due a drop, others think that it's got a bit more to go before it turns. How much higher? How long is a piece of string? A rise of 100 points in one day is quite common and that could take it over the 11,100 level, but a drop of 100 points is quite common too and we could go below 10,900.

 

[Morris]

Reckon the shorts have been sucked in by the move below 11k, now trapped, could see a really powerful move up as they are forced to cover.

But don't care either way myself.

 

[solentsurfer]

i wish it would just get on with it and drop.

you may be interested in that the futures look like setting up an Oops trade... (gaps open above/below prior high/low, and then reverses to that high/low..

so if it opens above 11,013 and then reverses down to that level, then a fairly reliable short is on the cards..

FC

As long as it doesn't go 30/40 points or more above yesterdays high, I'll be looking for a move back down to at least that point and possibly the support around 10970, but then again......

 

[leovirgo]

1. It is only 70 points up since Monday.
2. Bulls are winning for the moment.

Show me some more bull powers.. otherwise it is a rather weak top. For my shorts, I need to see how it close today

 

[macbonzo]

Dow jumped agian this morning hitting new highs at 11027,still short after getting caught out yesterday any thoughts on the drop we were expecting yesterday, if this baby keeps moving up, I'm in trouble. I shall have to learn not to keep guessing where the top is - sold at 10970! its worked fantastic for me over the last 2 weeks, where is the dow heading today? any thoughts would be much appreciated. :idea:

Trading indices is an unforgiving game. Ultimately discipline has to override conviction. Mark Twain gives some pretty useful advice. Whatever you do, stay in the game, stop trying to hit home runs all the time. Plan your trade in terms of risks/reward and remember that there are opportunities all the time. You are only looking for a few of them.

In terms of the Dow, yesterday we did not really get much of a sell off despite AA being weak. Today DD looks pretty weak, but we really need some volume on the downside.

 

[dc2000]

IMO we are in for a drop today but not from this level I would be happy to see 11078 for a short position but wouldnt want it to go much above 11119

 

[FetteredChinos]

ah, the old 5's eh DC..

how do you trade genesis on a weekly basis, rather than daily? there are usually only 4.5 weeks to a month...

i would be interested to see how/when you combine the weeks..

pm if you prefer to keep it secret..

thanks.

fc

 

[Racer]

(MarketWatch) -- DuPont warned that fourth-quarter earnings would fall short of expectations due to operation disruptions from hurricane's Katrina and Rita, as well as weaker-than-anticipated performances in a number of its businesses.Full story

 

[FetteredChinos]

looks like we got an Oops trade on the sell side....

11,013 broken..

 

[FetteredChinos]

now looking like distribution action, ready for a decline soon...

unless of course it decides to rocket asap

 

[solentsurfer]

Not risking it, could rocket either way at the moment - beer time methinks! :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

Spoken like a true surfer, If the waves aint big enough go for a beer

 

[Slapshot]

Resistance so far at 11020, negative divergances appearing also...

 

[mark twain uk]

my tea leaves have organised in a southward direction

 

[solentsurfer]

Spoken like a true surfer, If the waves aint big enough go for a beer

 

[Slapshot]

RSI ND still showing on the 15, 30 min & 1hour charts although the 100ema is holding firm and has been since the 3rd Jan. Question is, when will it run out of steam......

 

[CJIA]

now

 

[mark twain uk]

now

"Reuters

At exactly 20:31 UK time the US market turned, to the relief of a large number of people with short positions. After extensive research, we can exclusively reveal that in line with the chaos theory (the one with the butterfly wings and the hurricane) it was all caused by a certain CJIA who called "NOW" on the T2W forum."

 

[CJIA]

lol
it still needs a bit more persusion though just added another lot to push it down.
cjia

 

[kriesau]

November trade deficit report due tomorrow !