crystalballs
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My balls are crystal. What did i say.
counter_violent
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BAT SONAR now
counter_violent
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barjon said:
Ever thought of scalping ? lol
Lightning McQueen
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DOW DOWN said:
Hi bid
you've got rols all bitter and twisted again! and dont forget that I know that the BAT Sonar aint that great moving forward in realtime im still following those signals :cheesy:
serve your sentence or you will get banned for life
Don
rols
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don_h said:Hi bid
you've got rols all bitter and twisted again! and dont forget that I know that the BAT Sonar aint that great moving forward in realtime im still following those signals :cheesy:
serve your sentence or you will get banned for life
Don
Hi Don
You spreadbetters have a different perception of reality therefore I forgive you calling me bitter and twisted when in fact I am only exhibiting facetious irony.
The truth be known is that posters like BAT make the small and imperfect world of trading all that much more bearable by forcing us not to take ourselves or the markets too seriously.
Heaven help us if all these boards consisted of was endless debates about moving averages and fibonacci retracements!
Lightning McQueen
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rols said:
Hi rols
yes I suppose some spread betters do have different perceptions, I hope I have.
I was reading the thread Trading Day by Day" by Chick Goslin and I think I missed most of the fun with the brief return of BATTY, Barjon being on the ball deleting and banning
For the record the BAT sonar was stopped out today losing 200 points on the dow
I was thinking of changing my nick to The Black Swan in honour of his memory
Regards
The Black Swan
Racer
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That data got the media scratching their heads!
"The report as a whole is softer than expected,"
the equities market liked the report because it offered some hope the Fed could ease up on its monetary-policy tightening.
On a less positive note for the outlook on interest rates, average hourly earnings increased 0.5% to $16.61, more than the 0.3% forecast by economists. Earnings are up 3.8% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year gain since August 2001
"The report as a whole is softer than expected,"
the equities market liked the report because it offered some hope the Fed could ease up on its monetary-policy tightening.
On a less positive note for the outlook on interest rates, average hourly earnings increased 0.5% to $16.61, more than the 0.3% forecast by economists. Earnings are up 3.8% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year gain since August 2001
DepthTangent
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I feel partially responsible for the mania that followed BAT, as I was the one who suggested he call the system the BAT SONAR. I didn't realise how much it would stick I think BAT was/is a genius, I know I slated him at first, but then I got to know him more !
I hope I didnt upset kriesau to much with my previous signature, I aint seen him post today. Come on kriesau its only a little philosophical fun to help pass the trading day.
I think BAT was/is a genius, I know I slated him at first, but then I got to know him more !I hope I didnt upset kriesau to much with my previous signature, I aint seen him post today. Come on kriesau its only a little philosophical fun to help pass the trading day.
DepthTangent said:I feel partially responsible for the mania that followed BAT, as I was the one who suggested he call the system the BAT SONAR. I didn't realise how much it would stick
I hope I didnt upset kriesau to much with my previous signature, I aint seen him post today. Come on kriesau its only a little philosophical fun to help pass the trading day.
You certainly did DT and i'm glad to see your takin full responsibility. I hope you got in first with registering the name tho. This could be huge. Or at least i hope Battys doin the right thing and negotiating a percentage
Pat494
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I got an email from that BAT person forecasting a drop of 3,000 points in 1 hour on Monday !!
Something also about putting in stops every 50 points ??
I guess it's a wind-up of some sort ?? or is he NUTS ??
Plenty egg on honourable face probably by Tuesday morning though.
Something also about putting in stops every 50 points ??
I guess it's a wind-up of some sort ?? or is he NUTS ??
Plenty egg on honourable face probably by Tuesday morning though.
LOL - Why would I have been 'upset' about some BS you posted on the board ? (I didn't see you post anything yesterday either so should I postulate that you might have been 'upset' by my prior response). It's not my style to try and patronize people either !DepthTangent said:
Interested to see whether Jerry's prediction of 11650 on the Dow is achieved this week. He is already 70% the way there !
"Hi Racer, i am talking about a run to 11,650 my upside target...get ready" - posted premarket Thursday after the Dow had closed at 11400.
LOL - Pat, I received three since he has spammed a number of other T2W threads.Pat494 said:I got an email from that BAT person forecasting a drop of 3,000 points in 1 hour on Monday !!
Something also about putting in stops every 50 points ??
I guess it's a wind-up of some sort ?? or is he NUTS ??
Plenty egg on honourable face probably by Tuesday morning though.
Looks like he has been deleted by the various moderators concerned - some wierd posters about lately !
Bullish !
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Are we there yet?
That's the question that will dominate Wall Street's thinking next week as investors look for the Federal Reserve to shed light on when it intends to stop raising interest rates. The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and is expected to nudge interest rates up another quarter percentage point to 5 percent, which would be its 16th hike since June 2004.
But paramount to Wall Street is whether the statement that follows the Fed meeting will give any hints of when interest rates may stop rising. U.S. interest-rate futures on Friday signaled about a 30 percent chance of a June rate hike that could follow the widely expected increase next week. Any language that suggests the Fed is done raising interest rates is poised to propel U.S. stocks higher next week, putting the Dow Jones industrial average in sight of a break above its January 14, 2000, intraday record high at 11,750.28, according to analysts. Expectations that the Fed could end its nearly two-year campaign of rate increases with just one more hike at its May meeting have underpinned the stock market's steady climb. On Friday, U.S. stocks rallied, with the Dow registering its fifth straight week of gains. The catalyst on Friday was the government's report showing slower-than-expected job growth in April, which suggested the Fed may have reason to pause after raising interest rates for almost two years. For the week, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.9 percent, while the broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.9 percent.
On Thursday, the day after the FOMC meets on interest rates, two Fed officials will speak at a payments industry conference in Chicago: On Friday, two closely watched economic indicators are on tap: the March U.S. international trade deficit and the University of Michigan's preliminary May reading on its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. trade gap is expected to have widened to $67 billion in March from $65.74 billion in February, according to economists polled by Reuters. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May is expected to slip to 86.1 from 87.4, the Reuters poll showed.
Wall Street's mood also got a lift from first-quarter corporate profits, which were stronger than expected and encompassed a varied range of sectors, including materials and manufacturing industries. That robust round of earnings news helped outweigh worries about crude oil prices, which raced up to a record $75.35 a barrel on April 21. But if tension over Iran's nuclear program were to escalate in the coming week, any subsequent spike in crude oil prices could spoil Wall Street's party, analysts said.
"I'm relatively optimistic. I think there's a good chance of the Dow breaking its record high, absent anything happening with Iran or any international incident where the price of oil takes off," said Scott Vergin, portfolio manager at Thrivent Financial. "Oil is the wild card." U.S. crude oil futures rebounded on Friday after two days of heavy losses. Crude for June delivery (CLM6) settled at $70.19 per barrel, up 25 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Besides preoccupation with the Fed, investors will sift through another batch of quarterly earnings in the coming week. They will be watching to see if consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remained healthy in the face of rising gasoline prices.
Companies scheduled to report quarterly results next week, include retailers J.C. Penney Co, Kohl's Corp.and Federated Department Stores Inc, the parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's. On the technology front, communications equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc. will post its quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday. About 70 percent of the 429 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported first-quarter earnings so far have beaten analysts' estimates, compared with 66 percent a year ago, according to Reuters.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Are we there yet?
That's the question that will dominate Wall Street's thinking next week as investors look for the Federal Reserve to shed light on when it intends to stop raising interest rates. The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and is expected to nudge interest rates up another quarter percentage point to 5 percent, which would be its 16th hike since June 2004.
But paramount to Wall Street is whether the statement that follows the Fed meeting will give any hints of when interest rates may stop rising. U.S. interest-rate futures on Friday signaled about a 30 percent chance of a June rate hike that could follow the widely expected increase next week. Any language that suggests the Fed is done raising interest rates is poised to propel U.S. stocks higher next week, putting the Dow Jones industrial average in sight of a break above its January 14, 2000, intraday record high at 11,750.28, according to analysts. Expectations that the Fed could end its nearly two-year campaign of rate increases with just one more hike at its May meeting have underpinned the stock market's steady climb. On Friday, U.S. stocks rallied, with the Dow registering its fifth straight week of gains. The catalyst on Friday was the government's report showing slower-than-expected job growth in April, which suggested the Fed may have reason to pause after raising interest rates for almost two years. For the week, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.9 percent, while the broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.9 percent.
On Thursday, the day after the FOMC meets on interest rates, two Fed officials will speak at a payments industry conference in Chicago: On Friday, two closely watched economic indicators are on tap: the March U.S. international trade deficit and the University of Michigan's preliminary May reading on its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. trade gap is expected to have widened to $67 billion in March from $65.74 billion in February, according to economists polled by Reuters. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May is expected to slip to 86.1 from 87.4, the Reuters poll showed.
Wall Street's mood also got a lift from first-quarter corporate profits, which were stronger than expected and encompassed a varied range of sectors, including materials and manufacturing industries. That robust round of earnings news helped outweigh worries about crude oil prices, which raced up to a record $75.35 a barrel on April 21. But if tension over Iran's nuclear program were to escalate in the coming week, any subsequent spike in crude oil prices could spoil Wall Street's party, analysts said.
"I'm relatively optimistic. I think there's a good chance of the Dow breaking its record high, absent anything happening with Iran or any international incident where the price of oil takes off," said Scott Vergin, portfolio manager at Thrivent Financial. "Oil is the wild card." U.S. crude oil futures rebounded on Friday after two days of heavy losses. Crude for June delivery (CLM6) settled at $70.19 per barrel, up 25 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Besides preoccupation with the Fed, investors will sift through another batch of quarterly earnings in the coming week. They will be watching to see if consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remained healthy in the face of rising gasoline prices.
Companies scheduled to report quarterly results next week, include retailers J.C. Penney Co, Kohl's Corp.and Federated Department Stores Inc, the parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's. On the technology front, communications equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc. will post its quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday. About 70 percent of the 429 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported first-quarter earnings so far have beaten analysts' estimates, compared with 66 percent a year ago, according to Reuters.
Bearish !
In 1972, P/Es were almost 18, the market was approaching and exceeding new highs, volatility was low, and the market was in the first half of a secular bear market ...what happened next is now history--if it happens again, it won't surprise the old sages ! The P/E ratio just kept dropping. Prices went all over the board but the P/E ratio continued to decline. A classic secular cycle. Could we see a repeat? Another market high on the way to lower valuations in the future? Absolutely! Why would anyone think we are any smarter now than we were then?
Secular bear markets have never ended when the markets got to average P/E ratios. They have always overshot in the past. Could it be different this time? Want to bet your portfolio? For a clue as to why the market could be going down look at today's employment action. April's gain of 138,000 was the smallest since last October, and the back months were revised down. We've now had three consecutive months of downward revisions to the previous month's gains. Gains over the last three months have averaged 179,000, compared with 218,000 for the previous three-month period. Average hours and average wages were up. Average weekly earnings were up 0.8% for the month, and 4.1% for the year. This was the strongest monthly gain in 9 years. This combination of weakening employment gains and rising wage pressures presents a sharp challenge for the Fed. It's likely that the anticipated trajectory of policy won't be as clear as the markets would like in the coming weeks and months, so every twitch in the data will have to be read with unusual care.
Today the market read it to mean the Fed is going to pause and soared on the news. Bernanke is telling us that he expects the economy to slow down in the latter half of the year. Now we get data that seems to indicate he may be right. So, if the economy is going to slow, why is that good for stocks? Plain and simple, it isn't. We are watching the housing market slow down. Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. on Friday said signed contracts for its homes fell 29% in its second quarter and that home deliveries for the year will be 20% lower than expected as the slowing housing market takes hold. March sales of homes were good, but anecdotal evidence shows prices are weaker, and inventories of unsold homes are rising rapidly in many markets.
Gas and energy prices are affecting consumer confidence. Eventually, that should affect consumer spending, but April sales at Wal-Mart and other retailers were up. Maybe the reason is that home-equity borrowing is still going strong. The Washington Post writes, "A greater proportion of mortgage refinancers tapped their home equity for cash in the first three months of this year than in any other quarter in the past 15 years, according to an analysis released yesterday. About 88% of people refinancing their homes took out loans for at least 5% more than their original balances, according to the latest quarterly review of loans owned by Freddie Mac, a government-backed home mortgage company. However, more than half took loans at higher interest rates than they previously paid. In years past, refinancers chased lower rates."
Call me a bear, but I believe we are going to get a chance to buy this market at a much lower level than today's close.
(John Maudlin Summary)
In 1972, P/Es were almost 18, the market was approaching and exceeding new highs, volatility was low, and the market was in the first half of a secular bear market ...what happened next is now history--if it happens again, it won't surprise the old sages ! The P/E ratio just kept dropping. Prices went all over the board but the P/E ratio continued to decline. A classic secular cycle. Could we see a repeat? Another market high on the way to lower valuations in the future? Absolutely! Why would anyone think we are any smarter now than we were then?
Secular bear markets have never ended when the markets got to average P/E ratios. They have always overshot in the past. Could it be different this time? Want to bet your portfolio? For a clue as to why the market could be going down look at today's employment action. April's gain of 138,000 was the smallest since last October, and the back months were revised down. We've now had three consecutive months of downward revisions to the previous month's gains. Gains over the last three months have averaged 179,000, compared with 218,000 for the previous three-month period. Average hours and average wages were up. Average weekly earnings were up 0.8% for the month, and 4.1% for the year. This was the strongest monthly gain in 9 years. This combination of weakening employment gains and rising wage pressures presents a sharp challenge for the Fed. It's likely that the anticipated trajectory of policy won't be as clear as the markets would like in the coming weeks and months, so every twitch in the data will have to be read with unusual care.
Today the market read it to mean the Fed is going to pause and soared on the news. Bernanke is telling us that he expects the economy to slow down in the latter half of the year. Now we get data that seems to indicate he may be right. So, if the economy is going to slow, why is that good for stocks? Plain and simple, it isn't. We are watching the housing market slow down. Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. on Friday said signed contracts for its homes fell 29% in its second quarter and that home deliveries for the year will be 20% lower than expected as the slowing housing market takes hold. March sales of homes were good, but anecdotal evidence shows prices are weaker, and inventories of unsold homes are rising rapidly in many markets.
Gas and energy prices are affecting consumer confidence. Eventually, that should affect consumer spending, but April sales at Wal-Mart and other retailers were up. Maybe the reason is that home-equity borrowing is still going strong. The Washington Post writes, "A greater proportion of mortgage refinancers tapped their home equity for cash in the first three months of this year than in any other quarter in the past 15 years, according to an analysis released yesterday. About 88% of people refinancing their homes took out loans for at least 5% more than their original balances, according to the latest quarterly review of loans owned by Freddie Mac, a government-backed home mortgage company. However, more than half took loans at higher interest rates than they previously paid. In years past, refinancers chased lower rates."
Call me a bear, but I believe we are going to get a chance to buy this market at a much lower level than today's close.
(John Maudlin Summary)