Dow 2006

All a bit quiet today.

Seems that participants feel yesterdays fall was overdone. Market seems to be in no man's land at the moment. Every day seems to be different but the one question remains about how many more interest rate hikes remain.

Crude is selling off a little but reamains high. I feel that we may see, a move into treasuries soon. With a yield of 4.80 it is bound to draw in some money.

I was long on the S&P earlier on but am out the market now. Very tight range over the last couple of hours. Lets see where we go after lunch.
 
I feel the market is still well oncourse for a crack at the record high. I was not disturbed by yesterdays little shakeout, and managed a few pips out if it too. Rally till May, then a nice spot perched on a big rock waiting for the salmon to come up stream is my analysis. Still, always keep a flexible mind and let the market speak to you, but dont let that mental flexibility turn into rigamortis !
 
macbonzo said:
All a bit quiet today.

Seems that participants feel yesterdays fall was overdone. Market seems to be in no man's land at the moment. Every day seems to be different but the one question remains about how many more interest rate hikes remain.

Crude is selling off a little but reamains high. I feel that we may see, a move into treasuries soon. With a yield of 4.80 it is bound to draw in some money.

I was long on the S&P earlier on but am out the market now. Very tight range over the last couple of hours. Lets see where we go after lunch.
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At this stage it looks corporate earnings and the relative optimism on the economy is still driving the market. From here on in expect some volatility both upside and downside when potentially market moving data is released. Just closed a long on the Dow at 11225. Unsure how the day will finish. Like you say once lunch is out of the way there could be some movement. Be interested to hear your or anybody's thoughts on the next 3 hours...
 
I actually took it short 10 minutes ago for a few points. What perturbs me at the moment is the price of Crude ($66.50). It is almost, as if, the market is looking for an excuse to really push this one up.

You have no idea how right you are about being open minded. Getting the S&P back above 1298 was important, but, you know what?, we could easily give back all these gains in a couple of hours.
 
The internals are very strong today, but I really don't think we can push any higher. At the moment that equity market is ignoring the bond market. I see this afternoon as backing and filling between 11210 and 11240. But beware, it is more than possible that we could see a 50 point sell off.
 
macbonzo said:
The internals are very strong today, but I really don't think we can push any higher. At the moment that equity market is ignoring the bond market. I see this afternoon as backing and filling between 11210 and 11240. But beware, it is more than possible that we could see a 50 point sell off.
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Agree, a sell off is more likely then a further push north. Will stay out but if inflation nerves strike and a late sell off occurs I'll be around to pick up some points. Overall I'm pleased with today's bounce back though.
 
htp80 said:
Agree, a sell off is more likely then a further push north. Will stay out but if inflation nerves strike and a late sell off occurs I'll be around to pick up some points. Overall I'm pleased with today's bounce back though.
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You should be pleased. You've had a good day. Don't muck it up and try to be too smart. With trading it is so easy to do this. Wait until tomorrow.

I know that I sound like a creaking door but the two things that I watch closely are Nymex Crude (66.70) and the yield on the 10 year treasury bond (4.81%). Both of these are negatives for equities - particularly oil. Now my feeling is that we will see a sell off in crude and a shift into bonds, however, that has yet to happen. So at the moment I am looking very closely at the 11180 - 11220 area on the Dow. I know you are more of a bull, but watch the oil price carefully.

Good luck
 
Thanks for your thoughts yesterday....where do you see Crude going today bearing in mind May Crude closed at it's highest level since early Feb?
 
htp80 said:
Thanks for your thoughts yesterday....where do you see Crude going today bearing in mind May Crude closed at it's highest level since early Feb?
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One of the factors, which I believe may be keeping Crude high is the fact that AMEX (exchange) is launching a asset backed ETF in Crude next week. We have seen that when the same has been done with gold it has meant fairly large amounts of gold have to be bought to back the ETF, and I suspect the same may be happening now.

Iran has just rejected a UN Security Council demand to cease the production of uranium, so I guess that will keep Crude fairly strong.

You should be aware that we have a huge amount going on tomorrow (month end, quarter end, Japanese fiscal year end, PMI, Factory orders) so we may get a tight (inside) day.

I still believe Crude will come off, but until it does, I will remain wary. Thus far I looking to buy weakness.
 
right, that'll be me long until the end-of month markup is complete..

i'd be surprised if we didnt rally 300+ from here to hit the all time high..before the april tax deadline in the US
 
FetteredChinos said:
short scratched for -10.

looking for a long above 11240
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Been long since open and will hope to take advantage of a possible late afternoon sell off ahead of tomorrows busy data day. Good luck on the rest of the day.
 
closed out at 11247. I'm not sure of it will have the energy for a bit to get back up there towards 11260+?
 
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