Does technical analysis work or not?

[dbphoenix]

It all boils down to speed of flow at the end of the day, it also has much to do with recognizing where the trapped traders are sweating their nads off, you can see it in the general flow, the trap is set, bosh !! they or we are sucked into the vortex in the blink of an eye.

That's what TA is, the study of price movement.

Db

 

[Oscar Reed]

Is there a technical trapped trader indicator?

 

[dbphoenix]

Is there a technical trapped trader indicator?

An indicator? No. But watch what The Money does to the lost during NFP reports.

Painful.

Db

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Is there a technical trapped trader indicator?

There's more than one. Pick any indicator you like, use it, and place trade. I guarantee within 10 minutes, if not quicker, you are trapped.

People just don't get it this is normal market behaviour.

 

[IFeelFree]

Does technical analysis work or not?

From the point of view of conventional statistics, technical analysis should work poorly, if at all, because financial series are pretty close to being "random walks." However, this does not reflect the possibility that astute traders might be able to glean indications of price direction from patterns that are not reflected in purely statistical considerations. In other words, it might be possible to profit from technical analysis, but it's not easy.

Alternatively, quantitative analysis uses advanced models or algorithms to search databases for patterns, and implement automated trades. Such algorithms have the potential to greatly outperform standard technical analysis. This explains the superior performance of the better quantitative hedge funds, such as Renaissance Technologies, whose worst year from 2001 through 2013, saw a 21 percent gain, after subtracting fees. (In 2008, they gained 98.2%).

Therefore, for those traders who have the resources, and sufficient mathematical knowledge, quantitative analysis is an attractive alternative. Approaches based on trend following or mean reversion are possible for individual traders. I'm currently implementing a sophisticated mean reversion algorithm using statistical arbitrage, and after 8 months of live trading, I'm on track for a 50% yearly return.

 

[babyjake1961]

Am I a nervous trader ? f@ck yea I am & anybody who knows the real damage that can be done with the sudden prospect of huge draw-down should be too !

I'm not nervous for a tiny bit. Firstly, I only trade small amounts of capital that I can easily afford to lose. Secondly, I have fully automated bots doing this job for me. So all in all, I sleep like a baby.

If I traded my bread money and had to do it manually, I would not be able to think of anything else in life.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

If I hold my trade for 10 days I am guaranteed 61% interest return on the money I put up (assuming no change in the rates). That's not counting when the trade goes my way and I sell for more profit. For people who understand the business, they will have profit coming out of their ears.

Trading is about seeking money and not about indicators.

 

[babyjake1961]

Well the position pays 6.187% daily interest on the margin I put up. Hence size is interesting to me. It means I get paid without needing to trade.

What's your margin? Broker? Size? Nothing is clear to me.

 

[darktone]

If it opens like that I would say the bank is responsible. I don't see why you or I would be responsible.

If it doesn't open like that, it is still the bank that is responsible because they set the prices.

Of course the word bank I use is a synonym for whoever is running the market. I don't think I would be too far wrong to believe a bank is behind the business.

Really? It could open like that for any reason. Some fleshbag coulda taken out the primo line that supplies the world and prices go spaz. Theres no knowing.

As your LP. What do I know? Not much.. But I do understand that its a giant game of f**kyou, and the market is full o psychologically unaware folks that like to think they know something. So after giving you the tools, I can sit here patiently, like fido, with pockets deeper than you can imagine.

Annnd when you get a little bit silly. Ill say thank you very much.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

What's your margin? Broker? Size? Nothing is clear to me.

Whatever I put in I get paid. Obviously I put in the right amount according to risk and according to the price I want. Just because something pays doesn't mean it's at the right price.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Really? It could open like that for any reason. Some fleshbag coulda taken out the primo line that supplies the world and prices go spaz. Theres no knowing.

Yes, it can if you don't understand the business. They will never run the price against their own inventory like that. They always face the right direction, although not counting spikes.

All events short of earthquakes are known in advance. Inventories are set up accordingly.

 

[darktone]

Well, I stated multiple times that TA/EA doesn't work and gave the reason for it. So if trader joe is not making profit from TA/EA, all I can say is yeah, I know.

I can suggest to trader joe to reduce size, then at least he won't lose so much. Running a small position to a big profit would be a perfectly logical and comparatively safe trading strategy.

Just cos you stat it doesnt make it so Joe. In the example I gave the EA is profitable, in a number of market conditions, but its rendered unprofitable by the trader and hitting the stop button when the EA draws down, and hitting the go button after the EA shows a paper profit.
In other words, the EA, despite being robust and generally profitable, is still subject to the traders psychological weakness.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Just cos you stat it doesnt make it so Joe. In the example I gave the EA is profitable, in a number of market conditions, but its rendered unprofitable by the trader and hitting the stop button when the EA draws down, and hitting the go button after the EA shows a paper profit.
In other words, the EA, despite being robust and generally profitable, is still subject to the traders psychological weakness.

If it works then I don't know what your problems is.

If it doesn't produce an aggregate profit then no matter what you say, it doesn't work.

 

[darktone]

Is there a technical trapped trader indicator?

Yes Oz. You need my gold indicator. You might have to wait for a bit tho mate. Is dam busy over here! :cheesy:

 

[darktone]

Ya know...Im really gutted that piphoe deleted his earlier lol. Cos it really made me LOL!

 

[darktone]

I'm not nervous for a tiny bit. Firstly, I only trade small amounts of capital that I can easily afford to lose. Secondly, I have fully automated bots doing this job for me. So all in all, I sleep like a baby.

If I traded my bread money and had to do it manually, I would not be able to think of anything else in life.

Do you use stops?

 

[darktone]

If I hold my trade for 10 days I am guaranteed 61% interest return on the money I put up (assuming no change in the rates). That's not counting when the trade goes my way and I sell for more profit. For people who understand the business, they will have profit coming out of their ears.

Trading is about seeking money and not about indicators.

Trading is 10% about seeking value and 90% about managing your psychological sh!t. Think youre trading the market? utuh! Take a look in the mirror. Thats your biggest enemy.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Trading is 10% about seeking value and 90% about managing your psychological sh!t. Think youre trading the market? utuh! Take a look in the mirror. Thats your biggest enemy.

You are projecting. I don't have trouble knowing who is taking my money when it happens. I don't suffer from pushing the on off button.

If they are loading up, so would I. If they put their money in, that becomes serious business. Trading is everything about seeking value. Value adds to your safety. No psychology required.

 

[babyjake1961]

Do you use stops?

Yessir. Dynamic ones.

 

[tomorton]

TA works. But making a profit from it is something most people can't do.