DJ Pivot Points

[rossored]

Okay, so a bit of an odd day yesterday, what with spread prices dropping to 8700-ish levels at one point...

The PP worked well most of the day at the 9100 level, as did R1 at 9150, reversing sharply off this price after the news spike and never looking back. Good support around the 9080 level, near to S1, but we never got near the other levels again.

Mondays levels :

PP - 9084 : Good support here at the 9060-9080 level, but already today I see Dow futures have fallen just a fraction past this.

R1 - 9134 : Again, got to be looking to 9150 for this.

S1 - 9020 : Well you could take this as two levels - the obvious one at 9000, and 9020 itself has also offered a bit of action in the previous few days, so I shall be keeping an eye on both on Monday, assuming they're still relevant by the open...

R2 - 9198 : Still got to be 9200 hasnt it?

S2 - 8970 : A bit of support at this level on the 27th and the 30th June, so again, one to watch perhaps for Monday's market.

 

[rossored]

Big opening gap on the Dow yesterday, as we all know.

R1 (9134/9150) obviously showed good support at the open, only pipping below the level momentarily before establishing it as support and off we went to the moon

R2 offered only minor resistance at 9200, pretty much straight through, a bounce on the other side establishing support (?) and on to the highs of the day. That was pretty much it, with the 9020 area showing more influence througout the rest of the day.

Todays levels (for those of you who are still following, and havent downloaded the Excel PP calculator... )

PP - 9184 : At the time of writing, Dow futures are in the 9220 level, so I think it's fair to say we might get back here this afternoon, depending on the news at 2000hrs. But is 9184 realistic? Could well be, given the flag that formed at 9180-ish yesterday, so maybe one to watch.

R1 - 9294 : Cant see anything huge at this level myself, so I'd probably plump for 9300?

S1 - 9106 : 9100, no contest

R2 - 9372 : Nearest level is 9350 of course....if we get here everyone will be ranting about a new bull market again, then changing their minds as soon as it drops 100 points tomorrow...

S2 - 8996 : Got to be major support at 9000.

Don't forget of course about 9150 support, and 9045/9050 if we fall that far back.

 

[rossored]

Well, an interesting day imo :

First off, 9180 proved indeed that it was a level to watch, providing good support throughout most of the later part of the day. However, none of the other levels came close again, as we were pretty much range bound most of the day, still trading pretty much in this fairly tight consolidation pattern from yesterday, with a drop from it at the beginning and a hike from it at the end of the day. Maybe someone else can tell me if that means anything significant?

Wednesdays levels :

PP - 9207 : Must be 9200? Also 9180 and 9220 perhaps based on todays action.

R1 - 9252 : 9250 has shown some minor res over the past few days, so probably one to watch for tomorrow.

S1 - 9178 : 9180, wouldn't you say?

R2 - 9281 : Again nothing significant here imo : perhaps we should go with a Chartman 9264? That or 9300 anyway

S2 - 9133 : I'm the eternal bull (ask anyone in the chatroom about that!)so I hope we don't fall back tomorrow but if we do it's more likely to be 9100 than 9130.

And of course 9150 again, and wouldnt 9350 be nice (unless you're short!) Of course, if you note all of these on your charts you'll have more lines than most of the brat pack had in the 80's...

 

[rossored]

Fairly good day yesterday - action around 9180, 9200 and 9220, not to mention a good test of support at 9100 and resistance a couple of times at 9150.

Today's levels :

PP - 9163 : No prizes for guessing what I think this means. 9150. Although it is of course rather close to CM's magic 9164...

R1 - 9222 : Still no prizes for 9220.

S1 - 9096 : Or 9100

R2 - 9289 : 9300? What do you think?

S2 - 9037 : 9045/9050 support most likely. Or the CM 9032?


In addition to these levels, I have decided to add a little something today. I've been reading Mark Douglas' book "Trading in the Zone", which deals a lot with randomness, uncertain outcomes, probability etc. So the image below is, believe it or not, a random "chart" of the Dow that I drew on Tuesday night before Wednesday's open.

I would like to stress that althought it bears striking similarities to another daily chart posted here on T2W, it is in no way meant as a p***-take of that trader, as I am in no doubt that he could trade me under the table any day of the week. It is, however, his postings that have "inspired" me (if you can call it that) to post this and the following chart. So Tom, if you're reading this (unlikely!) please don't take offence.

So, this chart I drew on Tuesday night in about a minute with the aid of MS Paint and some guesswork. As I say, it's just a random chart to see how often it is miles out etc. If you don't believe that it was drawn pre-market, please feel free to ask in the chatroom for confirmation...they all love me in there

 

[rossored]

And just to bring us smack up to date, and no doubt open myself up to some serious ridicule and / or slating of my personality, here is today random chart.

 

[rossored]

I don't know about the rest of you, but I found yesterday pretty difficult. Couldn't get a feel for the market all day - kept waiting for the PD to deliver, kept looking at the levels expecting some support - but none came. Obviously we opened just beneath the PP at 9150, 9100 offered a bit of support but eventually failed and the faithful 9000 level saved us bulls in the end.

Pre market I can see we've crept up a little from the 9025 close, so perhaps as CM says we'll see a recovery today.

Todays levels are :

PP - 9060 : Pretty close to a natural s/r level so lets leave it as it is for today.

R1 - 9124 : Again, close enough to 9100 not to worry about it.

S1 - 8972 : Odds on for 8945-8960 support that we can see from 1st July.

R2 - 9212 : Again, pretty near to the 9200 mark. Don't forget about 9220 which has offered some resistance over the past few days. Will we get back to this level today? Answer on a postcard please....

S2 - 8908 : Tough one this ....8900-ish?


Once again, I've attached another random chart. I shan't bother commenting on yesterdays "chart" because it's just an exercise to see how close it comes to the mark on average.

 

[rossored]

Good morning all,

A good day on Friday if you were following the pivots. A long entry at 9060 would have stood you in good stead from the open, and if you were on the button flipping it at 9150 resistance would have worked out well for the day. Also a bit of action around the 9100 level, so all in all not bad.

Todays levels :

PP - 9101 : Clearly got to be 9100 again.

R1 - 9166 : Pre-market we're already at the 9152 level as I write, to it's going to be this level thats probably critical at the open. Of course, there's always a Chartman 9164 to think about.

S1 - 9055 : News excepted, I dont think personally we'll fall back today, if the Inv H&S comes off we should be looking towards 9250-9300 in fact.

R2 - 9212 : A couple of levels at this point - 9180, 9200 and of course 9220 have all offered some resistance over the past few days.

S2 - 8990 : 9000, clearly, but if we did fall back it would probably be a safer bet to wait for 8990 confirmation before going short.

What are the general feelings towards my charts? I've had a couple of people say they thought I was taking the p*** out of Sunseeker but I assure you this is not the case. I have the utmost respect for him posting his charts on T2W whether they turn out to be right or wrong. If someone can suggest an alternative method of demonstrating "randomness" then I will be happy to adopt it. In the meantime, here's todays chart - OK its not totally random, there's a little bit of thought gone into it, but I think I've made it clear that I'm not actually prediciting anything, because I don't have that sort of knowledge.

Personally, I thought Fridays "chart" wasn't too far off the mark, with the exception of the last dip and rally...

 

[rossored]

Someone has just pointed out to me Tom H's post regarding the path for the day.....blatant plagiarism, I say! Tom, you'll be hearing from my lawyers!!! :cheesy:

LOL!

 

[rossored]

Right, I won't have time to do this in the morning so I thought I'd better do it now...

H&S didnt quite make target, fell short by about 20-30 points imo. Good action around the 9220 mark and a fairly good long entry at this point if you took it, but you had to be quick, as usual. Other than that, it held at the highs most of the day until the sudden breakdown which was once again attributed to fat fingers on the exchange, although who knows if this is the truth. Sadly, 9220 was the only level that offered anything substantial today.

Tuesday levels :

PP - 9194 : This same level keeps coming up. 9180 doesnt seem to be offering much lately, so I'd place my bets on 9220 again and 9200.

R1 - 9261 : Some good action around the 260 level, so watch this area. Dont forget the Chartman 64, we had a bounce around 9164 this evening/afternoon.

S1 - 9109 : 9100 isnt it?

R2 - 9346 : Cant be anything other than 9350.

S2 - 9042 : 9045/9050 support again.


I'll try and post a chart in the morning for those of you who are interested.

 

[rossored]

Had it not been for the nasty spike down at close of play yesterday, that chart was actually looking quite promising :cheesy: Anyway, here's todays:

 

[ColinRiche]

Anyone got calcs for....

S3
R3
S0.5
S1.5
S2.5
R0.5
R1.5
R2.5