I have tried John Paul's method closely and I agree with the discussion here. Some of his performance cannot be repeated. For example, today (Mar 23, 2009) I did not get any trading signal (the E-mini 500 continues to go up, his method requires us to wait for a pullback to 786.5) but he amazingly got a trade signal at 10:10 am. So, I am not sure whether we need to tweak the method for a "special" strong day like today ?
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If you need a chart of the day please email me and i will send it to you. There was a data feed problem today on some servers. You are free to email me for clarification. [email protected]
today's chart
Actually here is today's chart as proof. Data feeds are out of my control.
Actually here is today's chart as proof. Data feeds are out of my control.
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evergreen3
Junior member
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In retrospect I see the trade, but I too didn't get filled and I had my order in right away. Not a good trade to miss! I didn't think I had data 
feed issues but I must have been affected.
feed issues but I must have been affected.I did get a few emails on this today, and ninja trader had an upgrade to a new version, or build. that may have also caused it. I only took the 4 pts as i do not trail. Some daytradetowin clients did trail a stop for more points.
I use both Ninja Trader (not yet upgraded for latest update) with Interactive Brokers feed and eSignal with another charting program and both match TheCow's chart exactly. Makes me want to hold off upgrading Ninja Trader, unless perhaps Zen Fire was the problem.
WOW, I use PFGBEST and TradeNavigator which uses Genisis as a feed. I also was not filled. I realize to compare exactly with Mr.Paul we'd all have to use Ninja and Zenfire. He can't help data platform differences. I'm hoping these avg. out over time, but if not, maybe I should switch? For the record I was filled today at 810.50. Stopped out with a 5pts.loss at 805.5 with the low being 805.25. Wouldn't have been stopped on the 6pts, and it just hit the 2pts. profit target. Not complaining, is what it is, but i do believe the performance page should reflect the loss if the 5pts.stop is to be maintained on that page.
Went back and checked my trades for last week. Mr.Paul lists two trades on the 18th. I got the first one. Was not filled on the second. Not insinuating that Mr.Paul wasn't. I have seen this before. Once again, not Mr. Pauls problem, but i'm amazed and disappointed at the difference in providers.
I trade 4 up and 6 loss and today is a winner although it is a little scary. I think with the current market playing 4 to 6 is a better choice. Also, when I look at John Paul's performance this month, his winner is mostly 2&4 so why don't we just play 4 then. Any comment ?
SystematicTrader
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Just wanted to check in about John Paul's system. I did some extensive backtesting and I'm impressed with the results. I'm watching it in real time right now. Of course, the 6 point stop is large, but given the volatility in this market, smaller stops would just get hit too often. What's important is the win/loss ratio which is high enough to make the system a winner (I haven't finished the actual calculation yet).
I like his scalping method as well - I just happen to like scalping and his method is a nice addition to my own.
Support is good too. This is one of the few vendors out there who's honest and has something of value to offer traders.
I like his scalping method as well - I just happen to like scalping and his method is a nice addition to my own.
Support is good too. This is one of the few vendors out there who's honest and has something of value to offer traders.
Hey SystematicTrader, it's nice to hear some good feedback about JP's ATO methodology. I've been contemplating buying his course and leasing the software, but feel the 5-6 pt stop seems too large, considering the risk/reward ratio. You'd need at least 75% success just to break even. However, the results show it's greater than this and so makes it a viable trading method. So im in a bit of a conundrum trying to make a decision. What would be interesting to know with your backtesting is, how often do trades come close to the original stop before ultimatley hitting the profit target(s)? If this doesn't happen that often it might be possible to use a tighter stop...Just thinking out loud here
Your help would be greatly appreciated. Cheers
Futures Trader 501
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I used the InfinityAT platform and I was filled at 786.50 less than 2 seconds and took 2 points profit in less than a minute. As for the Ninja, my broker told me those who have not upgraded their Ninja were off by couple of points. I
Futures Trader 501
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I truly believe that the a person should decide where to place their stop loss. If John placed his stopped at 6pts, why should he included 5 pts stop when he actually placed his stop at 6pts?
pedro01
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Here's the problem.
When he gets stopped out - he shows a 5 point stop loss.
When a trade moves 5 points against him & comes back, he says he had a 6 point stop loss.
He's either really good at reading the market & deciding how to set his stop loss or he's putting in his results after the event.
rgsharp
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Of course they should, but if you are selling a system based on a "Performance History",
then this right clearly doesn't apply. Purchasors (prospective or otherwise) expect to get what they pay for.
Pedro has covered this point very well in his last post, enough said.
pedro01
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Plus - remember that there is an automated system that trades this methodology for lease at $197 per month. I am fairly sure that system won't be able to make discretionary decisions on the 5 or 6 month stop loss.
pedro01
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Note the disclaimer from his site:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
:whistling
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
:whistling
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