Day Trading Is Not Dead...

Splitlink said:
Everyone is his own man, DT. We must all know that this is a jungle and not trust anyone. I get along very well without orderflow and I intend to trade in much the same way as I have always done while I am able to do it. This orderflow business isn't new but, lately, it has taken a lot of interest on these threads. I believe that it is the continual search for a new type of trading by those who have not found their way, yet. After a while, orderflow will become old hat and something else will come along.

When you get to my age you'll be questioning whatever that "something" is. You'll see! :D
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Well - I am guilty for pushing order flow down people's throats here.

For many, it may be a fad amongst many fads.

In my opinion, it is a seperate and distinct dimension, very different from the charts and that is it's value.

We hear a lot on here about 'confluence' but it is normally used in the context of confluence of price derived data. I believe confluence makes more sense when dealing with confluence of unrelated factors.
 
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DionysusToast said:
I hear you, Spy.

BTW - I wasn't calling your views 'simplistic' but that of anyone that says "it's manipulated, so it can't be useful"

Anything that's worth manipulating MUST be useful.
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I notice that you do not deny that it is manipulated

Of course, it's worth manipulating---to the manipulator
 
DionysusToast said:
And also - to anyone that can follow the manipulator. Hence the value.
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But you must admit that we are not meant to follow it. If everyone could follow it then there would be no advantage to the manipulator, or you.

I must say that I don't follow your line of argument.

My opinion is that if we know that something is manipulated, we have to re-manipulate it and we are nowhere near big enough to do that, so I would leave it alone.

I would say that about trading, in general, if I was a continual loser. People should face the facts.
 
DionysusToast said:
I hear you, Spy.

BTW - I wasn't calling your views 'simplistic' but that of anyone that says "it's manipulated, so it can't be useful"

Anything that's worth manipulating MUST be useful.
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No probs at all...I like using T&S because you can pick up what's likely going on at a certain level, before it shows up on a completed candlestick. I haven't yet seen any value in trying to make inferences from what i see in the DOM/L2, outside of looking at very obvious stuff which shows up from time to time - perhaps as you say the fact that it is manipulated by large players looking to take $$$ off new/ignorant traders makes it worth studying, i just find using the information embedded in what has actually traded and what i can actually see unfolding on the chart enough to get by on.

as long as we're making $$$, each to his own i guess.....
 
Splitlink said:
But you must admit that we are not meant to follow it. If everyone could follow it then there would be no advantage to the manipulator, or you.

I must say that I don't follow your line of argument.

My opinion is that if we know that something is manipulated, we have to re-manipulate it and we are nowhere near big enough to do that, so I would leave it alone.

I would say that about trading, in general, if I was a continual loser. People should face the facts.
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You are approaching this from a theoretical point of view. A physics professor could tell Tiger Woods his swing was not correct from a scientific point of view but it is very likely that the guy in the white coat gets a lot less action on & off the course than Tiger.

You can tie yourself up with logic about why it should and shouldn't work. The fact is it's a bit like poker. I dare say that if 90% of members here sat down with a professional poker player, they'd lose their shirts. The few that really bothered to learn the game, when to play, when to fold might not be able to win the pro's pot but they'd be able to stand their own. Of course, if everyone learnt about the statistics of poker and everyone learnt the ideosynchrasies of each others method of playing, then it may well be a fairly boring game BUT you'd still end up with people that were better than others purely because of aptitude.

So it is with order book spoofing. Most people are just too lazy to learn this stuff. Even after learning it, you need to experience it and most people are too lazy to do that too - they'd rather just jump in after hearing what is involved.

Now - in terms of the games played - they aren't just playing other order book readers, they are playing short term chart players. If all it takes is a nudge a 4 or 5 ticks to break through to a new high where a bunch of stop orders are sitting, then that is going to happen. Shorts will exit, breakout traders will get in and their buy orders are being filled against the sell orders of the person that caused the breakout. Now - if you know this game and see it happen enough times, you get a feel for when they've done enough pushing and gotten all they are going to get. At that point, there will be more interest in the opposite direction. This is something you ONLY see when using DOM/T&S.

There is also the fact that you do not have to play the manipulation. You need to be aware of it so that you know when it ISN'T happening too.

As for 'facing the facts' - I am not sure what facts you are expecting people to face. Is it a fact that I am just speaking nonsense and that you should only be looking at charts because every dimension outside of charts can't be valuable ?
 
Hey, DT, I am not accusing you of speaking nonsense. I am stating that you are admitting that manipulation of orderflow data does occurr, Nothing nosensical about that. You have the choice of using manipulated data, as well as the rest of us. At least, we know about it. There are many manipulated things in this life that we do not know about, to our cost.
 
Splitlink said:
But you must admit that we are not meant to follow it. If everyone could follow it then there would be no advantage to the manipulator, or you.

I must say that I don't follow your line of argument.

My opinion is that if we know that something is manipulated, we have to re-manipulate it and we are nowhere near big enough to do that, so I would leave it alone.

I would say that about trading, in general, if I was a continual loser. People should face the facts.
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If a retail trader can beat the big boys who can afford the best brain and computer power available, then he must be an exceptional trader. Otherwise all this big players would've been wasting lot of money trying to play the markets (usually they don't like wasting their money).

IMO A reasonable way for an average retail trader to make money from Level 2 would be to write a book about it, or try to teach paying customers.

PS Hope I don't sound too pessimistic - somehow the idea of beating the big boys at their game appeals to me, although it's quite unrealistic.
 
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tar said:
The real question is if u pay : spread , slippage , commissions can you really make it daytrading ?
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Absolutely, just don't overtrade. There should be at least one good opportunity on average every day across the markets
 
tar said:
The real question is if u pay : spread , slippage , commissions can you really make it daytrading ?
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Daytrading, yes, provided that means close your trade every day and trade no more than four times a day. I have lost three trades and got it back, or made a smallish loss on the forth but it's better to get it right first time, of course. :)

To be honest, I am not doing very well at present, and after a week of poor trading my account is still where it was ten days ago. But, on the other hand, I shall be able to take money out for Christmas. There is a difference between being a pensioner and being a person hoping to make a killing. One does have a different point of view.

The other part of daytrading, scalping, may have a different answer to your question.
 
Splitlink said:
Daytrading, yes, provided that means close your trade every day and trade no more than four times a day. I have lost three trades and got it back, or made a smallish loss on the forth but it's better to get it right first time, of course. :)

To be honest, I am not doing very well at present, and after a week of poor trading my account is still where it was ten days ago. But, on the other hand, I shall be able to take money out for Christmas. There is a difference between being a pensioner and being a person hoping to make a killing. One does have a different point of view.

The other part of daytrading, scalping, may have a different answer to your question.
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Then we should separate scalping from daytrading for a few times a day ...
 
tar said:
Then we should separate scalping from daytrading for a few times a day ...
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There is a real difference. After all, I have made more than thirty points in one morning trade (Footsie) quite often. Scalpers do not wait that long. I have read that they do hundreds of trades per day. That is a lot of spreads and slippage!. My mind boggles at that, but that is the life they have chosen!
 
Splitlink said:
There is a real difference. After all, I have made more than thirty points in one morning trade (Footsie) quite often. Scalpers do not wait that long. I have read that they do hundreds of trades per day. That is a lot of spreads and slippage!. My mind boggles at that, but that is the life they have chosen!
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Some might call 30 points a scalp :)
I suppose the true term for scalping is 1-10 ticks per trade but it can also be defined in time. For example, I often scalp the ES for about 2 pts out of it's 16-10pt daily range - I usually prefer if these trades are no longer than 1 min long to around 10mins long, sometimes you only need 10 seconds or so.
 
SanMiguel said:
Some might call 30 points a scalp :)
I suppose the true term for scalping is 1-10 ticks per trade but it can also be defined in time. For example, I often scalp the ES for about 2 pts out of it's 16-10pt daily range - I usually prefer if these trades are no longer than 1 min long to around 10mins long.
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Which shows that everything is relative to the person. If I stay in a trade for only 10 minutes it's usually because I've changed my mind about the trade.
 
bedsit said:
If a retail trader can beat the big boys who can afford the best brain and computer power available, then he must be an exceptional trader. Otherwise all this big players would've been wasting lot of money trying to play the markets (usually they don't like wasting their money).

IMO A reasonable way for an average retail trader to make money from Level 2 would be to write a book about it, or try to teach paying customers.

PS Hope I don't sound too pessimistic - somehow the idea of beating the big boys at their game appeals to me, although it's quite unrealistic.
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You aren't in competition with anyone. You are not attempting to beat anyone.

The market is an auction which is slightly rigged at times for short periods, as are most auctions.

At any point in time, there is a wrong side and a right side of the market. All you are doing when trading is attempting to be on the right side. The fact is that some people use order flow in attempting to be on the right side and some don't. Those that use order flow/order books are no more attempting to beat 'them' than anyone else.

If you see this as a battle between them and you with 'them' being all powerful forces, then you are giving yourself a considerable mental handicap.
 
To me scalping is very immediate - an entry where you can see price flowing in one direction immediately or you are out. It is not something or really could do with the kind of connection and commission structures I have.

To me day trading is holding a position for minutes to hours and not being as precise on the entry point as a scalper.

Day trading means being able to have a cup of tea in the middle of a trade and not having to keep a slop bucket by your desk.
 
Splitlink said:
But you must admit that we are not meant to follow it. If everyone could follow it then there would be no advantage to the manipulator, or you.

I must say that I don't follow your line of argument.

My opinion is that if we know that something is manipulated, we have to re-manipulate it and we are nowhere near big enough to do that, so I would leave it alone.

I would say that about trading, in general, if I was a continual loser. People should face the facts.
Click to expand...

Plus you have to take account of the fact that when operating in the scalping arena, you are competing against High Frequency Trading / Algorithmic trading entities..who can see and execute trades against L2 / DOM in advance of it being visible to other market participants...
 
Prawnsandwich said:
Plus you have to take account of the fact that when operating in the scalping arena, you are competing against High Frequency Trading / Algorithmic trading entities..who can see and execute trades against L2 / DOM in advance of it being visible to other market participants...
Click to expand...

This thread is beginning to lose me now. :D

I'm beginning to feel my age.
 
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