Day traders making 50+% returns per month lets talk money managment

[SpiritBeing]

Hi All

Im new to T2W and if you have a quick flick at my profile you will see a little of my background.

I wanted to know if any serious traders out there can or is making 50%+average(minimum) on their money each month?

I have recently got my DT strategy effective enough to quit my job and trade for a living. I use a formula of Moving Averages, Chart Patterns, Breakouts, Swings, and Trends. My average daily statistics are detailed below.....these are figures based on me paper trading for well over 30 days!

I trade futures. I trade 4 charts 95% of the time but play a few extra instruments on the rare occassion.

The 4 charts I trade are, CL, GC, eur/usd(futures), gbp/usd(futures)

Average number of trades: 18
Average Loss(including slippage and comms): -8pips
Average Win(minus slippage and comms): +30pips
Average Win Ratio: 33%

Maximum Adverse excursion: -100pips
Daily Maximum loss cut-off: -120pips

Maximum Loss per Trade: -12pips
roughly 33% of my losing trades are trades that ended up losing only a few pips since my approach intergrades a stop-loss that moves to flat after a certain positive percentage move and a timed exit. This is why my average loss is less than my maximum loss.


I want to talk serious money management arrangement with guys who can generate exceptional returns. Im sure I will have a people who think my trading targets are way too ambitious but im only taking what the market gives me.

I was wondering if the market gives people similar returns to other traders?

I look forward to hearing from serious guys only.

Regards

SpiritBeing

 

[Ted1983]

Hi All

I wanted to know if any serious traders out there can or is making 50%+average(minimum) on their money each month?

No

 

[arabianights]

I make double digits most months gross, but then I have to withdraw ****loads to pay for ****. My net geometic average is still over 100% a year.

How do I manage that? Very simple: By earning the spread and trading news. Both strategies are ludicrously profitable; what they're NOT is scalable. I haven't hit a brick wall yet with regard to that but it ain't that far away.

 

[Hoggums]

30 whole days of paper trading! Sheeze you da man !!

Go live - I bet you don't make 10% of that 50% per month you claim.

 

[tomorton]

I've never seen so many percentages in one place. It's like a migration.

 

[Splitlink]

Hi All

I have recently got my DT strategy effective enough to quit my job and trade for a living. Regards

SpiritBeing

Silly lad! I hope you are single.

 

[SpiritBeing]

Silly lad! I hope you are single.

LOL....i thought this may be the reaction.....

Like is said this is simply what the market gives me.

Marty schwartz made 25% per per month for 10years solid and could have made a much higher percentage if he compounded!...so deal with that!

 

[SpiritBeing]

30 whole days of paper trading! Sheeze you da man !!

Go live - I bet you don't make 10% of that 50% per month you claim.

Why bet against me....you have nothing to gain by doing so?

Anyways like i said to the other guy who thinks im crazy...im only taking what the market gives me.

If you asked how and what i do then you could gain a better understanding, rahter than just dismissing it!

A CLOSED MIND IS A MIND WASTED!

There are famous traders who generate huge returns on a regular basis...the only difference between them and everyone else is what they believe....Only time will tell

 

[SpiritBeing]

Let me give you an example of the way i trade to better explain the understanding of my approach.
Attached is an intraday chart of Gold(1min) chart 08th Feb 2011.



I work on chart patterns and then use a breakout strategy to enter trades. Once im in a trade, If it behaves well at the start i leave the trade to run on the long-term MA. As you can see im not hiding or claiming any amazing secrets. With simple money management and you can generate big returns with moderate risk.

From the intra-day gold chart above you can see the MAs i use. From this you can see my strategy catches 2 major moves from the long term MA. Now I will not get into the specifics of my strategy but if you read my original post and the figures i talked about, i will simply go through some figures to help tally my claims.

I dummy traded this chart and took these trades!!

The 2 major swings: From entry to exit price the two major swings gave me +35 and +118 respectively.

Daily end result: I take roughly 5 trades per day, per chart i trade. On this chart i took 6 trades on this particular day. They came in this fashion... -12, +35, -2, +118, -12, -2.

Now many people can say that im lieing about how many losers i got but you will have to take my word for it! Im very selective about my trades...however anyone who has half a brain can see that there are blatant patterns and trends that formed in the above chart. (THIS OCCURS REGULARLY AND ROBUSTLY ACROSS ALL TRADABLE INSTRUMENT some better than other!) I simply punt each breakout and eventually a few win.

Now this was a good day for this chart, and don’t get me wrong i do have big drawdowns!

Now i trade 4 charts at the same time so when you accumulate their loses it can pull me deep.

I risk 10pips MAX per trade but with slippage and cost this goes up to -12pips.

I risk 0.6% MAX per trade($20,000 account, 1contract 1pip = $10) a summary of my negative expectation is below.

(18trades for the day, 6Win, 8Lose outright, 4Lose transaction costs)

Worst case scenario: Take 20 trades in a day and lose out right. My loss for the day would be -12%. However i have a cut off point to stop trading at -6% to -7% for the day. An example of my loses are below, and lets assume my loses come first during the trading day.

-12, -12, -2, -12, -2, -12, -12, -2, -12, -2,, -12, -12 (12losing trades in a row equates to -5.2% or -104 pips)

Now this means i only need an average of +18 pips on my 6 winners to break even for the day!!!!!

As you can see from the Gold chart in the above example the swings that happen intraday greatly exceed that of 20pips. Now i get major fluctuation in results(obviously any strategy will have a standard deviation and therefore a negative skew) so like i said i lose 66% of the time but managed correctly you can win big.

For example i considered trading at 1% per trade but found that due to the monetary drawdown the risk level was unacceptable and i would struggle to stick to my strategy at 1% per trade, but 0.5% is fine.

I often have 15 straight losers and it doesn’t bother me one bit. The losing streak I listed above is very rare and i have a lot less outright losers, however i have accounted for worst case scenario.

DOES THIS HELP OR DO YOU LOT THINK IM STILL CRAZY????

 

[trendie]

"Now this means i only need an average of +18 pips on my 6 winners to break even for the day!!!!!"
..... "i said i lose 66% of the time but" ......

in your example, you're assuming your losing streak will be followed by a winning streak of 6 straight wins. (this would be equivalent to saying because you flipped 9 heads, the next 9 must be consecutive tails to make the average 50/50 )

given that your win-ratio is 33%, the probability to get 6 straight wins is remote, although not impossible.

with an average 8 pip loss, and 30 pip win, and a 33% win-ratio, your notional returns over a 3-trade set is -8, -8, +30 = +14. about 5 pips per trade.

in order to get your 104 pips back, you would need "on average" 21 trades to get your example losses back.

still, all that said, am curious to find out more about your method. good luck with it.

"DOES THIS HELP OR DO YOU LOT THINK IM STILL CRAZY????"
Perish the thought.

 

[SpiritBeing]

"Now this means i only need an average of +18 pips on my 6 winners to break even for the day!!!!!"
..... "i said i lose 66% of the time but" ......

in your example, you're assuming your losing streak will be followed by a winning streak of 6 straight wins. (this would be equivalent to saying because you flipped 9 heads, the next 9 must be consecutive tails to make the average 50/50 )

given that your win-ratio is 33%, the probability to get 6 straight wins is remote, although not impossible.

with an average 8 pip loss, and 30 pip win, and a 33% win-ratio, your notional returns over a 3-trade set is -8, -8, +30 = +14. about 5 pips per trade.

in order to get your 104 pips back, you would need "on average" 21 trades to get your example losses back.

still, all that said, am curious to find out more about your method. good luck with it.

"DOES THIS HELP OR DO YOU LOT THINK IM STILL CRAZY????"
Perish the thought.

NO NO NO......

IM NOT ASSUMING THE NEXT 6 TRADES WILL WORK!

Im my trading i have a strategy that gives me winning and losing trades. I win on average 33% of the time and in the example i stated that my losing trades come first to find the average negative excursion i will run into on a daily basis....

Thats why i go on to say that sometimes my loses are worse than this but 90% of the time its not as bad as in the example.....BUT you must know your absolute worst case scenario and average worst case scenarios so that as your loses fall ouside your average then you must have a cut off point and mine is -6 to -7%.

In general my winners could come in the morning or evening...im not there to judge, just participate! But one thing is for sure...i will keep hitting winners!!!!!

PEOPLE OFTEN FORGET THAT AT ANY MOMENT IN TIME...NO MATTER WHAT STRATEGY YOU USE OR WHAT DIRECTION YOU PLAY...IN THE NOW YOU HAVE A 50% CHNACE OF BEING CORRECT! NO MATTER IF YOUR A BULL OR BEAR.

The last comment was for those who im guessing will say....how do you know you will keep winning!

 

[Masquerade]

50%/month? Not very good, 50% is a bad day for me.

 

[tomorton]

Come on now folks. Don't you realise that making 50% once or twice, in a day or a month, is within every trader's reach. Especially if you're talking about 50% of some paper rather than 50% of real money that will be hard to replace.

Successful trading isn't about a big win or even a big year.

 

[Masquerade]

I think Trader Dante is best qualified to comment here.

 

[SpiritBeing]

50%/month? Not very good, 50% is a bad day for me.

 

[DashRiprock]

wats funny is that like on other blogs here people are saying 50% it total balls because thats whet everyone else says on the internet

:/

right strategy + right trader + right account size = 50% per month on average is possible

the people that do this generally dont go on websites, that sall.

as well there are people who obviously dont understand probability theory (or practice).

 

[SpiritBeing]

Come on now folks. Don't you realise that making 50% once or twice, in a day or a month, is within every trader's reach. Especially if you're talking about 50% of some paper rather than 50% of real money that will be hard to replace.

Successful trading isn't about a big win or even a big year.

LOL...i have been studying markets and trading for 6 years and i have made and lost money so im not some guy with pipe dreams!...i know what is real and not

 

[SpiritBeing]

wats funny is that like on other blogs here people are saying 50% it total balls because thats whet everyone else says on the internet

:/

right strategy + right trader + right account size = 50% per month on average is possible

the people that do this generally dont go on websites, that sall.

as well there are people who obviously dont understand probability theory (or practice).

THANK YOU

I have often stopped myself posting because i would rather focus on my strategies...I have one now and wanted to talk to people of similar mould....instead i get haters who have to be taught that the impossible is possible....

 

[DashRiprock]

I use a formula of Moving Averages, Chart Patterns, Breakouts, Swings, and Trends.

of everyone i know that does numbers like 50% there screens are always always always numbers and words (headlins). most;y no graphs ever.

50% every month on a graph system practised over 30 days probably wont work.

sorry.

 

[SpiritBeing]

of everyone i know that does numbers like 50% there screens are always always always numbers and words (headlins). most;y no graphs ever.

50% every month on a graph system practised over 30 days probably wont work.

sorry.

Its not a system...its my strategy that i trade.

Its not mechanical...its a setup