Dax Daily by robinho

[r0b1nh0pkr]

thanks. I´m still short with the stop 9764. The ORR (opportunity-risk relationship) is not the best for targeting the 9660, but i decided to deal with it.

If you want, feel free to share your trading journal for the dax here.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

seems like the dax feels very comfortable in my target area 1, which i´ve shared two days ago. Could someone please tell him to leave 😀

 

[postman]

Got to agreed with u. Great chart for discussion ... exited at 9708

Hi Royguo,
Just wondered which part you agreed with.
The bit where he said he shorted too early (ie made the wrong trade based on his chart).
The bit where he said he failed to follow his own strategy " i´m looking for big moves and thats not what i´ve done yesterday."
The bit where he said dont use eliott wave theory "trust another method then elliott waves"
The bit where he said he thinks its going down "So, i expect that the b8 is still running and the triangle is still my main option"
The bit where he said it could go up "the possibility to raise up to 161,8% of the wave a"
or the bit where he says it could stay flat, "Another thing i need to point out now is, that this could be an expanded flat".

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

2nd short 9752 SL 9764

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

postman...i´ve descriped all options that are possible right now, until the dax breaks the MoB.
And I´ve decriped, what went wrong for me yesterday.
What is your problem or what is your question?

 

[postman]

postman...i´ve descriped all options that are possible right now, until the dax breaks the MoB.
And I´ve decriped, what went wrong for me yesterday.
What is your problem or what is your question?

My question is what value does this chart provide if your analysis of it is the market could go up, could go down or could stay where it is.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

have you made experience with elliott-waves yet?
In my opinion, this is the only strategy, that gives you clear targets and stops. The rules of elliott has never been broken yet in any chart, which is not able to fake by a small amount of persons.
Remember for example what i´ve said about the S&P as you all were short. I said, if it breaks the 1877,4, we will see an uptrend.
Right now, i might lose a few points if my strategy fails and the dax breaks the MoB, but i summary, if I make a review of a whole month, i´m really good. And in addition, I only might lose right now because i made a fault that i really need to confess, but nobody trades perfect.

Actually, we are in a b of an upper cycle b. This might be the hardest part that is possible for elliott-wave traders. Something like a worst-case, we have so many possibilitys how a b might look like. But if you want more information, i recommend you to read the book about elliott waves from robert prechter and a.j. frost.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

the elliott wave strategy is very hard to learn, and in a wave b or wave 4, you feel often like you try to catch smoke, but in all other scenarios, this strategy might be the best.

 

[postman]

Actually, we are in a b of an upper cycle b. This might be the hardest part that is possible for elliott-wave traders. Something like a worst-case, we have so many possibilitys how a b might look like. But if you want more information, i recommend you to read the book about elliott waves from robert prechter and a.j. frost.

This one?

http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471988499.html

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Guys, i have deleted my stop. There is another alternative, i´ve just seen right now:

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

This one?

http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471988499.html

I think so, in german the cover looks different, but i think it is the same.

closed my 2nd position at 9735 (+17)

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

If you start trying elliott-wave, feel free to share your analyses in my threads and i will try to help you getting better with that. It is really unbelievable difficult to make flawless EW analyses, but i can promise, you will enjoy this method if you have made experiences with that.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Closed 2nd position at 9741 (-23)
I will prepare the targets for wave E and upload the screen in a few minutes

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

its getting very interesting to see what happens if the dax touches the 9765 area. This could not only be the MoB for an unfinished wave D7, it could be the end of the triangle as well.

The E7 has already reached the minimum target too, what means, the downmove with target 94XX could start!

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

short 9746.

<- out at entry, too early

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

next try 9751, this time, i´ll stay in. SL 9758

maybe the c8 is done now, maybe we´ve just seen the first wave of the c (1:c)
first confirmation for short is the 9735, second - and way more important - the 9720

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

It seems like we are done with long now. We might have a leading diagonal in the 1min chart.
A leading diagonal is always a sign for a beginning of a strong trend. Now we need a correction until we finally see a big down move.
The stop at 9758 is placed well, because this is the MoB for the downtrend. The wave 5 hasn´t reached the line, but this happens mostly in LDs.
A confirmation for the LD would be another low under 9737, better under the red line at 9726. Otherwise, we just could be in another corrective pattern as well.

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

we are very close to a decision now:

 

[12WBT]

we are very close to a decision now:

Robbie think it would much be safer if we waited until Monday.
What do you think?

 

[r0b1nh0pkr]

Difficult to answer.
There are three options i see right now:
1) We get a squeeze, maybe with the us start with target area 9770 - 9780.
This would finish the b6 and after that, and we are targeting the 94XX. Higher targets at 98XX would be unfortunately possible too. The wave E is allowed to hurt the channel
2) The Dax falls under the red line, the b6 is already done and we are moving to the 94XX
3) The Dax falls under the red line and we are still in the D7 with an expanding flat. Target around 9660, MoB 9641
Actually flat could be the best option, as you can see, we need more information than we have right now