[Darwin] CLN by CabedoClenow

[CabedoClenow]

February2025 is over! I am happy to share CLN Darwin's achievements and results so far.

1. 3 new investors allocated capital to CLN last month. Thank you for your confidence! The results in terms of performance have not been good in recent months. Seeing new investors join the strategy makes us feel doubly proud because it indicates that they have understood the investment philosophy. Thank you!
2. CLN continue participating in DarwinIA GOLD in March. Total DarwinIA allocation is 115.000 €.

CLN's return was -3.87%, compared to the SPY ETF's (S&P 500) return of -1.27%.
US equities markets fell in February as investors focused on the uncertainties surrounding the US President’s tariff proposals, the global response, and the widening geopolitical stance between the US, Europe and China. In the other hand, European equity markets have had an outstanding performance.

The dollar index decreased by approximately 1.7% month-to-date, primarily due to weak economic data and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff implementation.

The U.S. labor market showed moderation in January, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 143,000 and the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.0%. Inflation surprised on the upside in January, with the headline CPI rising by 0.5% month-over-month and the core CPI increasing by 0.4%. Year-over-year, the headline CPI reached 3%, and the core CPI rose to 3.3%.

The U.S. economy exhibited signs of slowing, with the Flash Composite PMI in February dropping to 50.4, the lowest in 17 months, and the Flash Services PMI falling to a 25-month low of 49.7.
Consumer confidence also declined significantly, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index falling by 7.0 points to 98.3 in February. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed a drop to 64.7, the lowest since November 2023, driven by concerns over President Trump's tariff plans affecting household purchasing power. Short-term inflation expectations surged to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, while long-term expectations rose to 3.5%, the highest since 1995.

In the eurozone, inflation rose to 2.5% in January, driven by energy costs, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.7%. However, concerns persist over trade tariffs from the Trump administration and potential EU retaliatory measures.

Our investment system remains in RISK ON mode, although it has not been able to capitalize on opportunities to improve its accumulated returns. At the beginning of February, PayPal was removed from the portfolio with slight losses, followed by Disney with slight gains. PayPal was replaced by another financial sector company, Citi, and Disney by Boeing. But, the month's results were influenced by the earnings reports of Amazon and Walmart. Despite strong financial results, the market has priced in a weakening of their sales forecasts for the coming months. Amazon, with a decline of over 10%, was removed from the portfolio and was replaced by Visa.

We are entering in March with a portfolio's composition of the strongest stocks in Consumer Defensive, Financials and Industrial sectors:

Happy Trading!

 

[CabedoClenow]

March 2025 is over! I am happy to share CLN Darwin's achievements and results so far.

1. 2 new investors allocated capital to CLN last month. Thank you for your confidence! Seeing new investors join the strategy makes us feel doubly proud because it indicates that they have understood the investment philosophy. Thank you! Good inverstors invest when drawdowns come...
2. The Darwin CLN turns 2 years old since its start on Darwinex.

CLN's return was -6.70%, compared to the SPY ETF's (S&P 500) return of -5.31%.
Global trade is currently facing significant challenges due to tariff threats and geopolitical tensions among major economies like the US, Europe, and China. In March, US stock markets were notably volatile, driven by political uncertainty from tariff threats by the US president and the global reaction to these policies. Survey data from the US reveals increasing concerns among consumers and businesses about inflation and supply chain disruptions.

In contrast, Europe is showing signs of growth, supported by commitments to boost defense spending and the removal of the debt brake in Germany, which has fostered optimism in European markets. European stock markets have outperformed their US counterparts, with the STOXX 600 index performing better than US indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.

In the bond market, Treasury yield curves steepened in March due to inflation worries and promises of increased defense spending in Europe. Bond market volatility is expected to continue, especially in Europe, as markets adjust to the implications of significant increases in government debt and potentially higher long-term borrowing costs.

The dollar index declined in March due to weakening economic data and uncertainty over the implementation of tariffs in the US. The US labor market showed signs of moderation in February, with non-farm payrolls increasing and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. Inflation eased to 2.8% in February from 3% in January.

Our investment system remains in RISK ON mode even though SP500 fall below the 200d SMA. During the month of March, there has been significant turnover in the portfolio due to the sharp decline the market experienced in just one month. This led to a situation where, as the stop-loss orders for the stocks that started the month of March were triggered, other stocks with positive momentum from the gains of previous months entered the portfolio though these also corrected sharply. At the beginning of the month, Boeing exited, and Netflix and Meta entered. Mid-month, Walmart, Citi, and Meta were removed, making way for stocks from more defensive sectors like Gilead Sciences, 3M, and Abbott Laboratories. By the end of the month, Netflix exited, giving way to Abbvie.

We are entering in April with a portfolio's composition of the strongest stocks concentrated in Health Care, Financials and Industrial sectors:

Happy trading!