Daily News & Market Analysis from FXTimes

[FXTimes]

EUR/USD: Trading The FOMC Minutes

The Euro (EUR) rose against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, increasing the price of EURUSD to more than 1.1040 ahead of the some key economic events that are scheduled later in the New York session. The technical bias remains bullish because of a Higher High and Higher Low in the recent wave on daily chart.
Technical Analysis
As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 1.1047. A hurdle may be noted near 1.1053, the 61.8% fib level ahead of 1.1126, the 50% fib level and then 1.1213, the swing high of the last major upside rally as demonstrated in the following daily chart.

On the downside, the pair is likely to find a support near 1.1000, the psychological number ahead of 1.0955, the 76.4% fib level and then 1.0807, the swing low of the last major downside dip. The technical biar will remain bullish as long as the 1.0807 support area is intact.
FOMC Minutes
The Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today during the New York evening session. Investors will be eyeing the FOMC minutes very closely for clues about the increase in Fed’s benchmark interest rate. A hawkish stance regarding interest rate hike would incite strong selling pressure in the price of gold and vice versa. Not to mention, the release of FOMC minutes will follow the US Inflation News.
Trade Idea
Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, selling the EURUSD around current levels appears to be a good strategy if we get a bearish pin bar or bearish engulfing candle on four-hour timeframe following the release of FOMC minutes.

 

[FXTimes]

EUR/USD Rallies As Fed Officials Look Reluctant About Rate Hike

US news were far from supporting a September rate hike, with July CPI missing expectations and a concerned FED. Inflation in the country rose 0.1% against previous 0.3%, whilst the annual rate edged steady at 0.2%.
Later on in the day, the Minutes from the latest FED meeting showed that policymakers are still concerned about lagging inflation, and a stronger dollar.
Additionally, most of the FOMC members agreed that “the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point.” All in one, chances for a September rate hike have reduced, and the USD is paying the price, sharply lower across the board.
In Europe, and following a teleconference call, the European Stability Mechanism board agreed the program for the €86bn bailout package to Greece. Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that “The program for the coming three years goes with strict conditions aiming at setting right public finances and administration and dealing with the economy and problems in the financial sector”.
The EUR/USD pair posted a daily low of 1.1017 right after the release of the US inflation readings, from where the bounce began, and accelerated with the release of the US Central Bank Minutes. The pair soared up to 1.1127, finding short term selling interest around a key Fibonacci resistance, the 23.6% retracement of the bullish August run between 1.0847 and 1.1213, at 1.1130.

The 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are losing their upward strength near overbought levels, but that the price stands above its moving averages, with the 100 SMA acting as immediate support around 1.1080.
In the 4 hours chart, the price has accelerated above its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators head higher after crossing their mid-lines towards the upside, supporting some additional gains, in the case the pair breaks above the 1.1130 resistance.

 

[FXTimes]

EURCAD - Euro Poised for Continued Strength

Key Points
• Euro managed to gain bids against the Canadian Dollar and might continue to trade higher moving ahead
• German Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland registered no change in July 2015, whereas the market was expecting it to decrease by 0.1%.
• In terms of the yearly change, the German PPI decreased by 1.3%, less than the market expected.
• EURCAD cleared a major bearish trend line recently, opening the doors for more upsides.

Technical Analysis
The Euro climbed higher recently against the Canadian Dollar, and managed to clear a major bearish trend line on the hourly chart. There were a few retest attempts for the highlighted trend line and buyers successfully managed to hold the downside. The pair is currently trading near 1.4618 where it is facing resistance.

However, the chances of it breaking higher is more, as the pair is above the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages. The hourly RSI is around is the overbought levels, which is a signal of a short-term correction.

On the upside, a break above the last high of 1.4618 might call for more gains moving ahead.

German PPI
Earlier during the London session, the Producer Price Index, which measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The forecast was lined up for a decrease of 0.1% in July 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was better than the forecast, as the German PPI posted no change in July.
In terms of the yearly change, the German PPI fell 1.3% in July 2015, compared to the same month a year ago, which was lower compared to what the market expected.

Overall, the outcome was better, and helped the Euro to gain bids. The EURCAD pair might get some help and could trade above the previous high of 1.4618.

Trade Idea
We can attempt a buy trade if the EURCAD corrects lower in three waves towards the broken trend line support area.


- The FXTimes Team

 

[FXTimes]

CADJPY Trend Overwhelmingly Negative

Key Points
• Canadian Dollar remained under pressure against most majors including the Japanese Yen.
• In Japan, the Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI posted a disappointing reading and came in at 51.9.
• Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI missed the forecast, but it was higher compared with the last reading.
• CADJPY cleared an important support trend line and remained under the bearish pressure.

Technical Analysis
The CADJPY pair faced a lot of selling pressure lately, which ignited a downside move. There was a major bullish trend line on the 4-hours chart, which was breached to open the doors for more gains in the near term. The pair is now way below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages (SMA), which means more losses are possible.

If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from 95.39-93.72.

A break below the last low of 93.72 might be take the pair towards the next swing area of 93.50.

Japanese Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI
Earlier during the Asian session, the Japanese Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI, which gives an early snapshot of the health of manufacturing sector and considered as a significant indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Japan was published. The forecast was lined up for a rise from 51.2 to 52.1 in August 2015. However, the outcome missed the mark, as it came in at 51.9, but we cannot deny the fact that it was still on the higher side.

Commenting on the report, an economist at Markit, Amy Brownbill, stated “Latest survey data indicated a further improvement in operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. New order growth accelerated to the second fastest this year so far, while production increased at a similar pace to July’s five-month record”.

Trade Idea
We can attempt a sell trade if the CADJPY corrects higher in three waves towards the 94.00 resistance area.

- The FXTimes Team

 

[FXTimes]

EUR/USD Hits The Seven-Week High Level

The EUR/USD pair reached a fresh 7-week high of 1.1242 late Thursday, as the greenback continued its recent downtrend following Wednesday’s dovish FOMC Minutes.
The pair ended the day well above the 1.1200 figure, maintaining a clear short term bullish bias.
Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the 20 SMA has extended sharply above the 100 and 200 SMAs, and continues heading north below the current price, whilst the technical indicators are now consolidating near overbought levels.

In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are heading strongly higher above their mid-lines as the pair continues to advance, with the pair about to challenge 1.1243, June 30th daily high. A steady advance beyond it should see the pair continue advancing on Friday, eyeing the 1.1400/10 price zone for the next week.

 

[FXTimes]

CHFJPY - Next Leg Lower Underway

Key Points
• Swiss Franc traded lower against the Japanese Yen, as the latter one got weakened recently.
• Japanese Leading Economic Index released by the Cabinet Office increased from the last revised reading of 106 to 160.5 in June 2015.
• Japanese Coincident Index was also released, which posted a rise from the last revised reading of 111.3 to 112.3 in June 2015.

Technical Analysis
The Swiss Franc after completing a consolidation pattern moved lower and traded towards the 127.40-20 support area against the Japanese Yen. There was an expanding triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart of the CHFJPY pair, which was cleared by sellers to take the pair lower.

The pair traded as low as 127.34 where it found buyers. It is currently correcting higher and facing a resistance around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 129.03 high to 127.34 low. Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is also around the mentioned Fib level, waiting to act as a hurdle. Any additional gains could take the pair towards the broken triangle area, which can be seen as the next barrier.

If the CHFJPY pair moves lower from the current levels, then the last low of 127.34 might be tested. A break below it might call for more losses in the near term.

Japanese Leading Economic Index
Earlier during the Asian session, there were a couple of releases in Japan. The first one was the Leading Economic Index, which is an economic indicator that consists of 12 indexes such as account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators released by the Cabinet Office. The outcome was above the expectation, as it rose to 106.5 from the last revised reading of 106 in June 2015.
Similarly, the Coincident Index rose to 112.3 from the last revised reading of 111.3.

Trade Idea
We can attempt a sell trade if the CHFJPY trades closer to the 100 SMA (4H).

- The FXTimes Team

 

[FXTimes]

EURJPY – Euro Eyeing New High Vs Japanese Yen

Key Points
• The Euro traded higher against the Japanese yen, and looks set for more gains moving ahead.
• There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which is acting as a support area.
• The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat posted an increase of 0.2% in June 2016, which was in line with the forecast.
• The Euro Area Trade Balance released by the Eurostat posted a trade surplus of €24.5B, less than the forecast of €25.2B.

Technical Analysis
The Euro recently gained traction against the Japanese yen and traded above the 118.00 level, but later found offers. However, it remains in an uptrend, as there is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which is providing support to the pair.

The pair is currently finding bids near the trend line support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 116.68 low to 118.41 high.

If the EURJPY pair bounces from the current levels, then there are chances of more gains in the near term.

Euro Zone CPI
Earlier today, the Euro Zone CPI, which captures the changes in the price of goods and services was released by the Eurostat. The market was expecting a rise of 0.2% in June 2016, compared with the previous month, and the result was in line with the forecast.

The report stated that “In June 2016, negative annual rates were observed in thirteen Member States. The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (-2.0%), Bulgaria (-1.9%) and Croatia (-1.2%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Belgium (1.8%), Sweden (1.2%) and Malta (1.0%). Compared with May 2016, annual inflation fell in two Member States, remained stable in eight and rose in seventeen“.

Overall, the Euro may continue to gain bids against the Japanese yen, and could break the 118.00 resistance area.

- The FXTimes Team

 

[FXTimes]

GBPJPY – Can British Pound Sustain Gains Versus Yen?

Key Points
• The British Pound after a decline towards the 137.75 level against the Japanese yen found support and recovered.
• There was a contracting triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart of GBPJPY, which was broken recently by the bulls.
• Today in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index was released for the month of July 2016.
• The result was disappointing, as there was a decline of 0.9% in the index compared with the previous month.

Technical Analysis
The British Pound after a slide against the Japanese yen towards the 137.75 level found support to trade higher once again. The GBPJPY pair traded higher and during the upside move broke a contracting triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart.

However, the pair is currently struggling to clear the 21 hourly simple moving average, which is acting as a resistance.

On the downside, the 139.80 level can be considered as a support area for the buyers.

Rightmove House Price Index
Today in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index, which provides a sample of residential property prices was released. The market was not expecting any decline in July 2016, compared with the last increase of 0.8%.
However, the result was different, as there was a decrease of 0.9% in July 2016, compared with the previous month.

 

[FXTimes]

EURUSD – Euro Setting Up For More Losses

Key Points
• The Euro remained in a downtrend against the US Dollar, and looks set for more losses.
• There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which is acting as a hurdle for the bulls.
• Today in the Euro Zone, the Current Account was released by European Central Bank.
• The result was above the forecast, as there was a surplus of €30.8B, more than the forecast of €24.9B in May 2016.

Technical Analysis
The Euro traded lower against the US Dollar recently, and tested the 1.0980 support level. The EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend and currently following a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart.

The pair is also below the 21 hourly simple moving average, which is a bearish sign. In short, there are many negative signs for the pair and may push it further down.

A break and close below the recent low of 1.0978 may call for a move towards the 1.0950 level.

 

[FXTimes]

USDCHF To Extend Its Upside Move?

Key Points
• The US Dollar slowly and steadily moved higher against the Swiss Franc after trading as low as 0.9765.
• There are a couple of bullish trend lines formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, providing support to the USD buyers.
• In the US today, the Initial Jobless Claims was released by the US Department of Labor.
• The result was above the forecast, as there was a decrease from 254K to 253K, compared with the forecast of 265K.

Technical Analysis
The US Dollar looks like is in an uptrend against the Swiss Franc, as after trading as low as 0.9765 it found bids and traded higher. There are a couple of bullish trend lines formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, acting as a support area.

The pair is also trading around the 21 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above it could ignite more gains in USDCHF.

Buying dips can be considered as long as the pair is above the highlighted trend lines and support area.

 

[FXTimes]

EURJPY – A Look At The Big Picture For Euro

Key Points
• The Euro recovered very well against the Japanese Yen and posted good weekly gains.
• However, the EURJPY pair is facing a major hurdle on the upside in the form of a bearish trend line on the daily chart.
• The German Services PMI was released by the Markit Economics today during the London session.
• The result was positive, as the preliminary reading posted a rise from 53.7 to 54.6 in July 2016.

Technical Analysis
The Euro after trading as low as 109.50 versus the Japanese yen surged higher and gained more than 400 pips. However, the upside may close to an end, as there is a major hurdle on the upside in the form of a bearish trend line on the daily chart.

The pair is also trading around the 21 hourly simple moving average, which is acting as a resistance along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 124.19 high.

On the downside, the 116.50 level can be seen as a major support.

 

[FXTimes]

EURAUD – Euro Poised For More Declines Versus Aussie Dollar

Key Points
• The Euro after a continuous struggle around the 1.4780 against the Aussie dollar failed and traded lower.
• There was a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURAUD pair, which was broken during the downside move.
• The German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group posted a decline from 108.7 to 108.3 in July 2016.
• The German IFO Current Assessment on the other hand, posted a rise from 114.6 to 114.7 in July 2016.

Technical Analysis
The Euro enjoyed solid gains against the Aussie dollar until it found resistance near 1.4780. The EURAUD pair started to trade down, and also broke a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart.

The pair also settled below the 21 hourly simple moving average, which is bearish sign calling for more losses in EURAUD in the short term.

If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it can find sellers near the broken trend line and the 21 hourly SMA. So, one may consider selling with a stop above the 21 hourly SMA.

 

[FXTimes]

USDCAD – US Dollar Poised For Break Versus Canadian Dollar

Key Points
• The US Dollar enjoyed solid gains against the Canadian dollar and looks set for more upsides.
• There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCAD pair, which is acting as a support area.
• On the upside, a break above the 1.3240 level could clear the way for a move towards 1.3300.
• The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released by the Standard & Poor's posted a rise of 5.2% in Mya 2016, less than the forecast of 5.5%.

Technical Analysis
The US Dollar climbed higher this week against the Canadian dollar, and settled above the 1.3200 resistance area. The USDCAD pair is following a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a catalyst for an upside move.

The same trend line is positioned with the 21 hourly simple moving average, suggesting the importance of the trend line support.

On the upside, the US Dollar buyers need to clear the 1.3240 resistance area for a move towards the 1.3300 level. On the other hand, a break below the trend line could ignite a correction towards 1.3150.

 

[FXTimes]

GBPUSD – British Pound Under Bearish Pressure

Key Points
• The British Pound was crushed against the US Dollar and looks set for more losses in the near term.
• There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is acting as a resistance for the pair.
• The UK Gross Domestic Product was released by the National Statistics earlier today.
• The outcome was positive, as the preliminary reading came in at 0.6% in Q2 2016, compared with the forecast of 0.5%.

Technical Analysis
The British Pound traded lower against the US Dollar and tested an important support area of 1.3080, which provided bids. There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is stalling the upside move.

The pair is below the 21 hourly simple moving average, which is a concern for the buyers in the short term.

On the downside, a break below the highlighted support area may call for more losses in the near term.

 

[FXTimes]

AUDNZD – Can Aussie Dollar Continue With Recovery?

Key Points
• The Aussie dollar traded higher against the New Zealand dollar after testing the 1.0570 support area.
• There is a crucial support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDNZD pair, acting as a barrier for more losses.
• Earlier today, the Australian Import Price Index was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
• The outcome was mixed, as there was a decline of 1% in the IMI in Q2 2016, compared with the previous quarter.

Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar after a downside ride against the New Zealand dollar towards the 1.0570 level found support and started to move higher. There was a crucial support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDNZD pair, which prevented the downside move.

The pair surged higher and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0724 high to the 1.0570 low.

On the upside, a successful close above the 21 hourly simple moving average is needed for more gains.

 

[FXTimes]

EURCAD – Euro Remains In An Uptrend

Key Points
• The Euro enjoyed a lot of gains against the Canadian dollar lately, and it looks poised for more gains.
• There is a monster channel pattern formed on the hourly chart of the EURCAD pair, which is acting as a catalyst for the upside move.
• The Spanish Gross Domestic Product released by the National Institute of Statistics posted a rise of 3.2% in Q2 2016, more than the forecast.
• In terms of the quarterly change, there was a rise of 0.7% in Q2 2016, which was in line with the forecast.

Technical Analysis
The Euro continued to surge higher against the Canadian dollar, as it closed above the 1.4600 resistance area. Currently, the EURCAD pair is following a monster channel pattern formed on the hourly chart, which is pushing it higher.

The pair is well above the 21 hourly simple moving average, and looks set for a ride higher in the near term.

On the upside, a break above the channel resistance area could take the pair towards 1.4660-1.4700.

 

[FXTimes]

USDCHF – US Dollar Eyes Further Gains

Key Points
• The US dollar recently surged higher against the Swiss Franc and looks set for more gains.
• There was a crucial bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which was surpassed by the bulls for an upside move.
• Today in Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate was released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO.
• The outcome was positive, as instead of a decline in the index there was no change from -15 in Q3 2016.

Technical Analysis
The US dollar enjoyed a solid recovery against the Swiss Franc after trading as low as 0.9635. There was an upside thrust, as the USDCHF pair moved above a crucial bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart.

The pair looks like set to test the 1.618 extension of the last drop from the 0.9703 high to 0.9633 low where sellers may appear.

Overall, the pair remains in an uptrend and more gains looks feasible in the short term.

 

[FXTimes]

EURUSD – Can Euro Break 21 Hourly SMA?

Key Points
• The Euro is currently consolidating against the US Dollar, and attempting to break the 21 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which the Euro bulls are attempting to break.
• Earlier today, the German Trade Balance was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
• The outcome was a bit disappointing, as there was a trade surplus of €21.7B in June 2016, less than the forecast of €22.1B.

Technical Analysis
The Euro after finding bids near 1.1070 against the US dollar on many occasions gained momentum and trade higher. The Euro bulls are currently attempting to take the EURUSD pair above a contracting triangle pattern formed hourly chart.

Moreover, the 21 hourly simple moving average is also acting as a resistance area for the Euro bulls and preventing an upside ride.

If the bulls succeed in breaking the 21 hourly simple moving average, then more gains are likely in the near term.

 

[FXTimes]

EURUSD – Euro Remains Buy Dips Vs Dollar?

Key Points
• The Euro started a recovery against the US Dollar, and looks set for more gains moving ahead.
• There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which is acting as a support area for the pair.
• Earlier today, the German Gross Domestic Product was released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland.
• There was a rise of 0.4% in the GDP in Q2 2016, compared with the forecast of 0.2%.

Technical Analysis
The Euro recently traded as high as 1.1193 against the US Dollar where it found sellers and corrected lower. However, the downside found support near a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair.

The only thing is that the pair is now below the 21 hourly simple moving average, which may push the pair down once more.

Buying dips remain a good option as long as the pair is above the trend line support area.

 

[FXTimes]

AUDUSD - Aussie Dollar Preparing For New Low Vs USD

Key Points
• The Aussie dollar is under a lot of bearish pressure against the US dollar, may continue to decline
• There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which was broken during the downside move.
• In Australia, the Wage Price Index was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
• The WPI came in at 0.5% in Q2 2016, just as the market expected, but failed to help the Aussie dollar.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar after trading as high as 0.7746 found sellers and moved down. During the downside move, the AUDUSD pair closed below the 21 hourly simple moving average, and a bullish trend line on the hourly chart.

The pair looks like heading towards the 1.236 extension of the last wave from the 0.7636 low to 0.7746 high.

On the upside, the broken trend line may now act as a resistance if the price corrects higher.