Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Analytical British Pound to Australian Dollar Predictions for 2024, 2025 and Beyond

The British pound to Australian dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate, influenced by economic factors in the UK and Australia, is a key focus for traders. This article provides an in-depth analysis of recent trends and analytical British pound to AUD forecasts for 2024, 2025, and beyond, examining factors like monetary policy, inflation, and global trade.

Recent GBP/AUD History

The British pound (GBP) to Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rate has experienced significant fluctuations since 2019, driven by economic factors and global events.

In 2019, the GBP/AUD exchange rate remained relatively stable in a general upward trend, opening around 1.78 and closing at 1.88. While Brexit uncertainty hit the pound, progress in late 2019 helped boost optimism. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar reflected the nation’s relatively strong economic performance.

In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered extreme volatility in global markets. The rate jumped to a high of 2.08 in March as investors dumped AUD. The Bank of England (BoE) rushed to cut interest rates amid a deep economic contraction. However, a sell-off started soon and the pair fell to 1.80 by July. Likewise, a recovery in commodities in the latter half of 2020 helped buoy the Australian dollar, with the pair ending the year at 1.77.

In 2021, the GBP/AUD rate hovered between 1.74 and 1.91. The UK’s faster vaccination rollout and stronger economic recovery pushed the pound higher in the first half of the year. By August, the exchange rate hit a peak of 1.91, supported by the UK’s reopening after lockdowns. In contrast, Australia’s slow vaccine rollout and periodic lockdowns weakened the AUD.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in Trading?

One of the most used technical indicators in trading is the moving average (MA). An MA is a dynamic indicator that traders use to identify price trends and potential trading opportunities in the financial markets. One type of moving average is the EMA. What does the EMA stand for? The acronym refers to an exponential moving average.

In this FXOpen article, we'll explore how it differs from a standard moving average, how to calculate the exponential moving average, and how you can use it in trading.

What Is an EMA in Trading?

So, what does EMA mean? An EMA (exponential moving average) is a moving average that gives more weight to recent market data, making it more responsive to price changes than a simple moving average (SMA). Like other MAs, it’s used by traders to identify trends and potential trading opportunities in various financial markets, including forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies*.

The EMA smooths out fluctuations by calculating the average price over a specific period, but it applies a multiplier that places greater emphasis on recent data. This makes it particularly useful for detecting short-term trends and reacting quickly to sudden market movements. Traders often use different timeframes for EMAs, such as 10, 50, or 200 periods, depending on their trading strategy and the asset they are analysing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80

As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil prices surged by over 8.5% last week — marking the largest increase in 2024, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Although oil prices continued to climb earlier this week, a pullback occurred on Tuesday, causing Brent crude to drop below the $80 level. It appears that market participants expect U.S. authorities to prevent the conflict from worsening ahead of the presidential elections, prompting them to lock in profits from previous long positions based on the technical outlook.

XBR/USD Technical Analysis

Today's analysis of the XBR/USD chart shows that Brent crude is moving within an upward channel (shown in blue) that began in the first half of September.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Hang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% Today

As shown on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), prices have fallen by almost 10% since trading began today, and the session is not over yet.

According to Reuters, bearish sentiment was driven by uncertain statements from Chinese officials regarding economic stimulus measures. This has raised doubts in the stock market about Beijing's ability to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of its most severe downturn since the global pandemic, aiming to achieve 5% growth.

Additionally, the decline may have been accelerated by a cascade of long position closures, which were opened in mid-September when the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) was in an upward trend.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Quasimodo Pattern: Meaning and Trading Rules

The Quasimodo (QM) pattern is no more difficult than the Head and Shoulders. Still, only a few traders know about it, and some even confuse one with the other. However, this is not a reason to avoid this tool in your forex trading strategy. Read the FXOpen article to discover the definition of the Quasimodo pattern and learn how to apply it to a price chart to build your own trading strategy.

What Is QM in Forex?

The Quasimodo is a reversal chart pattern forming at the end of a solid trend. It can be spotted on any timeframe of any asset. It means you can find a Quasimodo on forex, stock, and commodity charts.
Bearish Quasimodo

A bearish QM occurs at the end of an uptrend and signals the formation of a new downtrend. It consists of three peaks (a head in the middle and two shoulders at the sides) and two troughs. The second peak (head) is the highest, and the second trough is the lowest.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Drops to a Two-Week Low

The XAU/USD chart shows that yesterday, the price of gold fell below $2610, a level not seen since 20th September.

Bearish sentiment has been driven by the continued strengthening of the US dollar. According to Trading Economics:

→ This is due to market participants lowering expectations for an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
→ Currently, there is an 89% probability that the Fed will decide on a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Take Hit, Turn Red

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6855 and 0.6830 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.6225.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6900 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6755 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6380 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6145 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6950 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6855 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6800 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6750. A low was formed at 0.6715 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6755 level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Drop Over 3% This Month

An overview of stock market charts since the beginning of the month reveals that while the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) is in positive territory, Microsoft (MSFT) shares have underperformed significantly. The opening price on 1st October was $427.47, but by yesterday's close, it had fallen over 3%.

One of the key drivers behind this bearish sentiment is analysis from Oppenheimer, suggesting that Microsoft's financial performance may be negatively impacted by losses related to OpenAI. Additionally, Oppenheimer downgraded Microsoft's stock rating, a concerning sign ahead of the upcoming third-quarter earnings season.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Analytical Silver Price Forecasts for 2024 and the Following 4 Years: How High Can Silver Go?


Silver has captivated humanity for centuries, not just as a precious metal but also as a mirror to the economic and geopolitical climates shaping its value. In this FXOpen article, we will delve into silver's price history and explore analytical predictions over the next five years, exploring potential new chapters driven by technological advancements and shifting global market dynamics.

Silver’s Price History

Silver's price history is marked by dramatic fluctuations, reflecting the interplay of market forces, geopolitical events, and investor behaviour. Interested readers can head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore silver price trends using our interactive XAG/USD charts.

Silver Thursday (1980)

One of the most significant periods was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, notably during the Silver Thursday event of 1980. After the precious metal began climbing in the latter half of the 1970s, an attempt by the Hunt brothers to corner the market in January 1980 led to silver prices reaching an all-time high of $49.45 per troy ounce—from the 1979’s high of $28— before crashing to a low of $4.90 at the end of 1982.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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The Netflix (NFLX) Share Price Has Reached an All-Time High

As shown in the daily chart for Netflix (NFLX), during yesterday’s trading session, the price exceeded $725, marking a new all-time high.

The bullish sentiment is driven by the upcoming release of the third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for 17 October. According to Zacks analysts' forecasts: → earnings per share are expected to reach $5.07, up 35.92% compared to the same quarter last year; → gross revenue is forecast to be $9.76 billion, an increase of 14.31% year-on-year.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Chart Analysis: Bears May Take Control

As shown in today’s USD/JPY chart, the US dollar has gained over 3.6% against the yen since the start of the month. Yesterday, the exchange rate surpassed the peak formed on 16 August around the 149.40 level, marking a 10-week high.

The bullish sentiment towards the US dollar has been influenced by increased market confidence in the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to further monetary easing, as reported by Reuters.

Can the USD/JPY rise continue?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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What Is T-Distribution in Trading?

In the financial markets, understanding T-distribution in probability is a valuable skill. This statistical concept, crucial for small sample sizes, offers insights into market trends and risks. By grasping T-distribution, traders gain a powerful tool for evaluating strategies, risks, and portfolios. Let's delve into what T-distribution is and how it's effectively used in the realm of trading.

Understanding T-Distribution

The T-distribution in probability distribution plays a crucial role in trading, especially in situations where sample sizes are small. William Sealy Gosset first introduced it under the pseudonym "Student". This distribution resembles the normal distribution with its bell-shaped curve but has thicker tails, meaning it predicts more outcomes in the extreme ends than a normal distribution would.

A key element of T-distribution is the concept of 'degrees of freedom', which essentially refers to the number of values in a calculation that are free to vary. It's usually the sample size minus one.

The degrees of freedom affect the shape of the T-distribution; with fewer degrees of freedom, the distribution has heavier tails. As the degrees of freedom increase, the distribution starts to resemble the normal distribution more closely. This is particularly significant in trading when dealing with small data sets, where the T-distribution provides a more accurate estimation of probability and risk than the normal distribution.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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Pound and Euro Decline Following US Inflation Data Release

Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that inflation in the US continues to slow. The rate fell to 2.4%, down from last month's 2.5%, but slightly above the experts' forecast of 2.3%. These figures supported the dollar, as slowing inflation and a strong labour market may lead the Federal Reserve to refrain from aggressive interest rate cuts in the coming months.

EUR/USD

The euro tested key support at the 1.0900 level yesterday. By the end of the day, EUR/USD buyers managed to correct the price to 1.0940. Price action within the 1.1000-1.0900 range will be crucial for the pair’s future direction. A break below 1.0900 could extend the downtrend towards 1.0800-1.0700, while a resumption of the uptrend is possible with a decisive move above the psychological level of 1.1000.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/CAD Analysis: Exchange Rate Rises for Seven Consecutive Days

Data shows that USD/CAD has formed seven consecutive bullish candles since 3 October, and today could mark the eighth in this sequence.

This strong rise in the pair has been driven by the strengthening of the US dollar amid several fundamental factors. Media reports suggest that traders are reassessing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve rate cuts after yesterday’s inflation data release (as reported by Forex Factory):

→ Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-on-month: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.2%, previous = 0.3%;
→ CPI month-on-month: actual = 0.2%, expected = 0.1%, previous = 0.2%;
→ CPI year-on-year: actual = 2.4%, expected = 2.3%, previous = 2.5%.

Market participants may be speculating that the Fed will hold off on further monetary easing. Will the US dollar continue to strengthen against the CAD?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Target Additional Gains

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $2,618 resistance level. WTI Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might even test $78.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,600 zone against the US Dollar.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,630 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices extended gains above the $72.40 and $73.50 resistance levels.
• There was a move above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $72.75 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,600 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $2,618 level.

The bulls cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,630 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,670 swing high to the $2,602 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Tesla (TSLA) Shares Fall After ‘We, Robot’ Presentation

On 10 October, at the Warner Brothers studio in Burbank, California, Elon Musk unveiled three products during the presentation of “We, Robot”:

→ Cybercab – an autonomous robotaxi that Musk claims will be produced in very large quantities.

→ Robovan – an autonomous bus capable of transporting 20 people or cargo, with an expected price tag of under $30,000.

→ Optimus Gen 2 – humanoid robots that participated in the event, with Musk showcasing a video of how Optimus can be used in home settings.

Elon Musk stated that Tesla anticipates the arrival of fully autonomous vehicles without supervision in Texas and California by next year.

Despite the revolutionary nature of the products presented under the Tesla brand, investors seem disappointed, as TSLA shares are trading around $225 in pre-market today, down from over $238 at yesterday's close.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's 7 - 11 October Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Hang Seng Index, XAU/USD, Microsoft and Netflix Shares

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• Hang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% Today
• Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Drops to a Two-Week Low
• Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Drop Over 3% This Month
• The Netflix (NFLX) Share Price Has Reached an All-Time High

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



FXOpen YouTube

#marketwrap #marketanalysis #forexmarketanalysis #stockmarketanalysis

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

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S&P 500 Reaches Another Record High

As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the leading US stock index set its 45th record of the year, closing above 5800 on Friday. This marks the fifth consecutive week of growth, with the index up more than 22% since the start of the year.

According to Reuters, the bullish market sentiment is driven by the start of Q3 earnings season, with companies possibly issuing bolder forecasts due to the beginning of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.

What are the prospects for the index until the end of 2024?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Mastering the Harmonic Bat Pattern

The harmonic bat pattern is a powerful tool for traders seeking to pinpoint market reversals with precision. Using Fibonacci ratios to map out key price movements, this pattern offers traders the chance to enter high-probability trades. In this article, we’ll break down the bat pattern’s structure, how to identify and trade it, and common mistakes to avoid.

Basics

There are many approaches and tools that can be applied to trading. They can mainly be divided into technical and fundamental. When it comes to technical analysis there are indicators, candlestick and chart patterns, Elliott wave theory, Wyckoff method, and more.

With each talented analyst making chart observations, a new approach is born. This is also the case with Harmonics. They were first introduced in 1930 by H.M. Gartley in his book “Profits in the Stock Market” which is why the first pattern was named Gartley.

At first, Fibonacci ratios weren’t applied to pattern recognition but other market analysts later built upon this. Namely, it was Larry Pesavento who introduced Fib levels to define and distinguish Harmonic formations, and finally, Scott M. Carney defined all the variations according to those rules and ratios.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

 

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JPMorgan (JPM) Shares Rise Over 4% Following Earnings Report

On Friday, before the market opened, JPMorgan (JPM) released its Q3 earnings, which exceeded expectations:

→ Earnings per share: Expected = $3.99, Actual = $4.97
→ Revenue: Expected = $41.4 billion, Actual = $43.4 billion

CEO Jamie Dimon praised the strong results but issued several cautionary statements. He noted:

→ Geopolitical risks are rising rapidly. "We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time, and recent events show that conditions are dangerous and deteriorating."

→ "While inflation is easing and the US economy remains resilient, several critical challenges persist, including a large budget deficit, infrastructure needs, trade restructuring, and the remilitarisation of the world."

Despite Dimon's caution, investors responded positively to JPMorgan’s strong results, pushing JPM shares up more than 4% on Friday.

Year-to-date, the stock has gain

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.