Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Market Analysis: Results of Black Friday in Financial Markets

As CNN reports, Black Friday brought single-day sales records in the United States. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, offline sales increased by 1%, and online sales by 8.5%. According to Sensormatic Solutions, store traffic increased by 4.6% year on year. Shopify reported record sales growth of 22% year over year to $4 billion worldwide.

The activity of buyers indicates the stability of the US economy, which is reflected in the stock markets — the S&P 500 index is near the highs of the year. However, the beginning of the week may bring an unpleasant surprise: on Thursday, the publication of the values of the PME indicator, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation in the United States, will take place.

Meanwhile, Black Friday became a significant day in the cryptocurrency market — the price of bitcoin reached a new high of the year, exceeding the level of 38k dollars per coin. Perhaps the generosity of buyers on Black Friday helped create a record for the year, but the bulls failed to maintain the achieved levels. The BTC/USD chart shows that:

→ exceeding the level of 38k dollars looks like a false breakout of the previous top;
→ a false breakout formed a bearish engulfing pattern;
→ according to online metrics, on Black Friday, short positions on crypto exchanges were liquidated in the amount of $15 to $20 million;
→ The MACD indicator shows a series of decreasing highs 1-2-3-4, which may indicate the depletion of demand forces, which is stimulated by the anticipation of the approval of the bitcoin ETF.

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Australian Dollar Reaches Its Highest Since Early August

Important events regarding AUD took place this morning:
→ the level of retail sales for the month in Australia unexpectedly fell: actual = -0.2%, expected = +0.1%, a month earlier = +0.9%.
→ a press conference was held by the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, according to whom inflation in Australia follows the path of overseas countries. That is, inflation is decreasing, as in the USA and Great Britain.

Against the background of these events, the AUD/USD rate exceeded the level of 0.663 for the first time since the beginning of August. The rally from the late October low is already about 5.5%. However, this upward trend has 3 important obstacles:

The upper limit of the November ascending channel (shown in blue).
The upper limit of the longer-term parallel channel (shown in red).
Level 0.660. During 2023, it worked as support once. Therefore, from the point of view of technical analysis, there is reason to expect that it will provide resistance.

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Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month Lows

Yesterday, XNG/USD quotes dropped below the 2,900 level for the first time since mid-September. This was helped by the fact that the NatGasWeather weather forecasting model late last week showed a cooling trend in December in the US, but this was replaced by warming over the weekend.

According to analyst forecasts from Analysts Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., published on Monday:
→ natural gas reserves at the end of winter could be 2 trillion cubic feet (previously forecast 1.9 trillion);
→ price could be USD 2.75 (previous forecast was USD 3 or less).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Market Analysis: The US Dollar Continues to Fall

The downward movement in the American currency, which began at the end of October, resumed with renewed vigour at the beginning of the current five-day trading period.

Thus, the euro/US dollar pair is consolidating at 1.0900, the pound/US dollar pair has confidently strengthened above 1.2600, and USD/JPY sellers have broken through the resistance at 149. Nevertheless, the coming trading sessions are quite saturated with the fundamentals, so it is possible to see both the strengthening of existing trends and the beginning of corrective pullbacks from the main movements.

USD/JPY

The cooling of the US labour market and lower inflation are contributing to increased bearish sentiment on the dollar. More and more market participants are becoming confident that the most aggressive rate-tightening cycle of the last couple of decades is behind us, and the Fed could cut its benchmark interest rate as soon as the first quarter of 2024. On the contrary, the Bank of Japan has been adhering to a policy of ultra-low interest rates for a long time, and if it decides to change the current vector of monetary policy, the dollar/yen pair may suffer significant losses.

Last week, on the USD/JPY chart, the pair almost tested a significant support level at 147.00. Greenback buyers managed to correct to 149.70, but yesterday evening the pair was trading below 149.00.

Today we are waiting for data on the US consumer confidence index from CB for November. Analysts expect a decline in the indicator, which may contribute to a retest of 147.00. We could consider cancelling the downward scenario only after a confident strengthening above 150.00.

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EUR/USD Extends Rally While USD/JPY Nosedives

EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.0930 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 148.20 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro remained in a bullish zone and climbed above the 1.0965 resistance zone.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0975 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 148.20 and 147.40 levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 147.40 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started fresh above the 1.0900 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0930 resistance zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even settled above the 1.0965 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1020 resistance. A high is formed near 1.1017 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0935 swing low to the 1.1017 high at 1.0975. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0975.

The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0935 swing low to the 1.1017 high and the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0965.

If there is a downside break below 1.0965, the pair could drop toward the 1.0930 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0895, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.1020. The next major resistance is near the 1.1050 level. An upside break above 1.1050 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1140.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Analysis: Price Reaches the Level of 1.1000

Before yesterday's trading session, the last time 1 euro was 1.1 USD was in the first half of August.

The growth of the rate was facilitated by the weakening of the dollar, which occurred against the background of the words of Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, who is known for his hawkish policies. But he has already softened his position.

"I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent," he said yesterday, however, adding that if the decline in inflation continues “for a few more months... three months, four months, five months... we can start reducing the discount rate just because inflation is lower.”

The expected rate cut could mark the beginning of a new period of looser monetary policy. Therefore, financial markets reacted by increasing the prices of currencies relative to the dollar — in particular, the euro reached a psychological level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NASDAQ Composite Index Heralds a Fine Time for Tech Stocks

In the ever-fluctuating landscape of financial markets, the NASDAQ exchange, home to some of the world's most prominent technology stocks, has been a bastion of volatility over the past two years. This week, the NASDAQ index continues its upward trajectory, reaching its highest point in five days, marking a notable shift in sentiment for the technology-focused venue.

As of the close of the New York trading session yesterday, the NASDAQ index has demonstrated resilience and vigour. A closer look at the five-day moving average reveals a climb to the highest point in five days, showcasing the current bullish sentiment among investors. Over the course of the last month, the NASDAQ index has experienced an impressive gain of 12%, underlining the sustained positive momentum.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Falls to Its Lowest Level Since Mid-August

EUR/USD

The euro strengthened on Monday as the dollar fell on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again. Traders this week will have to weigh data on how the US economy performed in the third quarter, as well as key data on consumer inflation and spending, both of which could play an important role in setting expectations for the timing of the first rate cut.

The focus this week will be Thursday's October US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report, which is said to be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, as well as eurozone consumer inflation data for greater clarity on where prices and monetary policy are heading. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the nearest resistance can be seen at 1.1023, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise to 1.1046. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0966, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0924.

At the highs of the week, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue its corrective decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Today OPEC+ May Announce New Oil Production Cuts

According to WSJ, the reduction could be 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is in favour of cuts, but the idea causes disagreements among other members of the organisation.

In anticipation of news about the OPEC+ decision, the price of oil is rising - this indicates that market participants assess the possibility of new production cuts as quite real, even if we are not talking about 1 million barrels per day. The price is approaching its maximum for November.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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BTC/USD Analysis: New High for the Year Shows Bulls Are Indecisive

During November, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 10% in anticipation of the launch of a bitcoin ETF. But the positive sentiment of crypto investors is seriously overshadowed by news regarding Binance:

→ Changpeng Zhao resigned as head of Binance.US, pleading guilty to money laundering charges. He also agreed to pay $50 million in a lawsuit from the US Department of Justice, and his company will have to pay $4.3 billion. This fine to Binance was one of the largest in the history of punishment of corporations. In addition, Zhao faces up to 10 years in prison. The judges banned him from leaving the United States until the proceedings are completed.

→ Cristiano Ronaldo was sued for $1 billion for advertising Binance. This was done by people who claim they suffered losses by buying unregistered securities that the sports star was promoting.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Stock Market Reaction to US GDP News

According to data released yesterday, the US economy is growing at a stronger pace than expected. Thus, US GDP in the 3rd quarter increased by 5.3% in annual terms (an increase of 4.9% was expected).

Combined with softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, this is a positive signal for US stock markets, which have shown impressive performance: in November, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices rose by 8.5% and 11%, respectively (the final figure will be known later, since today – last day of the month), which is the best month since July 2022.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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European Currencies at Strategic Levels

The downward trend in the US currency continues to gain momentum. Thus, the euro/dollar pair yesterday tested important resistance at 1.1000, the pound/dollar pair strengthened to 1.2700, and the usd/cad pair fell below 1.3600. A lot of important groundwork is expected today in both the European and American sessions. Depending on the published data, these pairs may either go into correction or continue the main movements.

GBP/USD

The British currency is growing for the third week in a row. Yesterday, buyers of the pair managed to rise above 1.2700, but so far there has been no confident consolidation above this level. A reversal bar has formed at 1.2660 on the daily timeframe. If it begins to work out, a corrective price reduction to 1.2600-1.2500 is possible. A price move above yesterday's high at 1.2730 may contribute to a test of the psychological level at 1.3000.

Today at 10:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the Nationwide House Price Index in the UK for November.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AUD/USD Trims Gains While NZD/USD Extends Increase

AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6675 zone. NZD/USD is rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6185 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction below the 0.6650 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.6120 support.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6140 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6530 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6600 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

Finally, the pair tested the 0.6675 zone before it started a downside correction. The recent swing high was formed near 0.6634 and the pair is now trading below the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6570 swing low to the 0.6634 high.

On the downside, initial support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6570 swing low to the 0.6634 high at 0.6600.

The next support could be the 0.6570 zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.6570 support, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.6530. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6450.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near a connecting bearish trend line at 0.6620. The first major resistance might be 0.6650.

An upside break above the 0.6650 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6675 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6740 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The USD/CAD Rate Drops to Its Minimum of 2 Months

This morning, 1 USD was selling for less than 1.354 Canadian dollars – for the first time since October 1st.

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the weakening of the USD was facilitated by the news published yesterday:
→ Canada's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in September, which exceeded analysts' expectations and reduced the relevance of the recession scenario in Canada.
→ The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week amounted to 218k (a week earlier it was 211k), which may indicate a cooling of the US economy.
→ The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell to 3% from the previous value of 3.4%. While 3% remains too high to declare victory over inflation, it marks a new series low that is sure to reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.

In our previous analysis of the USD/CAD market, we wrote that the price could form a rebound from support in the area of 1.36625. However, the rebound to point E was very weak, and after the breakdown, the level 1.36625 showed resistance properties.

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Market Analysis: UK100 Shows Bullish Signs

On the morning of Friday, December 1, the UK stock market index rose to its November highs. This was facilitated by the fundamental background:
→ among the UK100 growth leaders are shares of companies mining ore and other resources. As metal prices rise and industry in China shows signs of recovery;
→ general sentiment on the world's stock markets due to the fact that the policy of raising rates pursued by the central banks of Western countries has come to an end. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to speak this evening, which could provide more evidence of this.
→ Since the UK100 index has performed weaker relative to other indices (due to higher inflation in the UK), it may be undervalued.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Growing Against Euro and Pound

The US personal consumer spending price index rose 3% in October from a year earlier, down from the three-month rate of 3.4%, although still above the Fed's 2% target, raising the possibility of an early rate cut. Jobless claims rose over the past week, indicating a slowing labour market. Inflation, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), remained unchanged in October after rising 0.4% in September.
EUR/USD

According to the technical analysis of EUR/USD, the pair is showing noticeable growth, correcting after an active decline the day before, which turned out to be the most significant in the last few weeks. The euro is testing the 1.0900 mark for an upward breakout, awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the EU and the USA. Among other things, speeches are expected throughout the day from the heads of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, who are likely to comment on the likelihood of ending the monetary policy tightening program amid a sharp slowdown in price pressure.

The day before, November inflation data was published in the eurozone. The consumer price index in annual terms fell from 2.9% to 2.4%, which was significantly lower than forecasts of 2.7% and was the slowest growth rate since July 2021, and in monthly terms the figure was -0.5%. Core inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.6% in annual terms, which was also below expectations at 3.9%, and in monthly terms the index decreased by 0.6%. At the same time, the day before, ECB head Christine Lagarde said that price growth could resume in the near future due to certain factors.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0940, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1000. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0872, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800.

Based on the lows of two days, a new downward channel has formed. Now the price has moved away from the lower border of the channel and may continue to rise.

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Watch FXOpen's 27 November - 1 December Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUROPEAN CURRENCIES, US GDP NEWS, OPEC+, NATURAL GAS PRICES

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• European Currencies at Strategic Levels #EUROCurrencies
• Stock Market Reaction to US GDP News #USGDP
• Today OPEC+ May Announce New Oil Production Cuts #OPEC
• Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month Lows #NaturalGas

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens after Fed Chairman's Comments

Today, investors are assessing the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the interest rate is currently at a restrictive level, but the regulator allows for the possibility of another increase if necessary. The manufacturing business activity index from S&P Global in the US remained at 49.4 points, which coincided with analysts' forecasts, and the same indicator from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained at 46.7 points, contrary to forecasts for growth to 47.6 points. The manufacturing index of gradual acceleration of inflation from the ISM in November sharply increased from 45.1 points to 49.9 points, while experts expected 46.2 points. In the US today, statistics on the volume of manufacturing orders will be presented: in October, the figure may lose 2.5% after growing by 2.8% in the previous month.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the euro is testing the 1.0870 level for a breakdown downwards, but activity on the market remains restrained. Investors today are watching publications from Germany, where exports in October adjusted from -2.5% to 0.2%, and imports from -1.9% to -1.2%, while the trade surplus widened from 16.7 billion euros to 17.0 billion euros, signaling the recovery of the national economy, despite the long-term hawkish course of the ECB. In addition, representatives of the European regulator, as well as its head Christine Lagarde, are expected to speak during the day. Officials may refine their plans for the monetary policy outlook given that inflation continues to show fairly consistent signs of decline.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0892, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0977. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0822, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0758.

Based on last week's lows, a new downward channel has formed. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline after approaching the upper border of the channel.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Bitcoin Surpasses $40,000 Per Coin

December begins extremely optimistically for the cryptocurrency market, resembling:
→ December 2020, when bitcoin grew by 46.9%;
→ December 2017, when bitcoin grew by 38.9%;
→ December 2016, when bitcoin grew by 30.8%.

If there are psychological patterns in the increase in demand on the eve of the holidays, then perhaps they come into force, since on the morning of December 4, the price of Bitcoin exceeded the psychological barrier of 40k and reached 41,700 per coin — for the first time since April 2022.

Fundamentally, demand is based on expectations of the approval of several Bitcoin ETFs. The fear and greed index reached a value of 74, indicating growing greed. Another driver is expectations of Fed rate cuts, which leads to more affordable loans and, accordingly, increased demand for risky assets.

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5 Stocks To Consider in December 2023

As we approach the curtain call for 2023, it's time to reflect on a year filled with market-shaping events. From the resurrection of tech stocks to the fall of financial institutions, the capital markets sector has been anything but dull. Against a backdrop of geopolitical shifts and the paradox of rising interest rates amid reduced inflation, investors and traders are closing the year with a multitude of perspectives.

In the heart of December, the spotlight is on tech stocks, particularly those powerhouse companies headquartered in Silicon Valley. Here are the top five movers in the global stock markets as the last month of the year gets underway, each with its own narrative and potential.

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