Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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CEO Sells Shares, AAPL Price Underperforms Market

As it became known yesterday:

→ Tim Cook sold shares, selling 511k of his existing package of more than 3 million shares. For information: in 2023, he took a salary reduction of approximately 40%, but increased the size of the bonus (tied to the company's success) in the form of shares from 50% to 75%.
→ Investment bank KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded AAPL shares. Analysts believe the company's sales will fall amid lower consumer spending.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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European Currencies Have Found a Short-term Bottom

A weak employment report from ADR and a decline in the US services PMI contributed to the start of a corrective pullback in major currency pairs. Thus, the EUR/USD pair went above 1.0500, the GBP/USD pair is forming a bullish engulfing combination, and the USD/JPY pair fell below 149.00.

GBP/USD

The decline of the British currency was interrupted after the publication of data on the business activity index in the UK services sector for September. The indicator showed impressive growth: 49.3 against the forecast of 47.2. The composite business activity index (PMI) also turned out to be positive: 48.5 versus 46.8. Such positive statistics allowed pound buyers to find support just above 1.2000 and close yesterday with a reversal ‘bullish engulfing’ combination. If today we receive confirmation of the indicated signal in the form of any white candle, the price may return to 1.2280-1.2300.

Today's news on the business activity index in the UK construction sector for September will be important for the pair's pricing. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of Ben Broadbent, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Aim Steady Recovery

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6285. NZD/USD is also rising and facing a major hurdle near the 0.5980 level.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.5870 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
• There is a key rising channel forming with resistance near 0.6385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 0.5930 resistance.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.5950 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair recovered above 0.6450. However, the Aussie Dollar failed to clear 0.6500 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below the 0.6385 support. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 0.6285 zone. A low was formed near 0.6285 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6500 swing high to the 0.6285 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NFLX Analysis: Changes in Management, Price at Minimum

Yesterday, the NFLX share price dropped below USD 370, the lowest since late May of this year, and about -22% from the July peak.

Note that on July 6, we wrote that the NFLX stock price could meet resistance at USD 450 per share, and the signals from the chart gave bearish warnings. Just since July, the stock price began to perform worse than the broad S&P 500 market index.

Perhaps the company knows better about the reasons for the emerging negative dynamics and is making changes in management. This week it became known about the appointment of Amy Reinhard to the post of president of the company's advertising business. New product directors and technical directors were also appointed.

Will new executives help the stock return to its upward trajectory?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Analysis: Psychological Level Changes the Price Sharply

On Tuesday, the US dollar rose above the psychological level of 150 for the first time since October 2022 before falling sharply to a low of 147.30 as the yen rose.

The media are discussing whether this movement confirms the fact of intervention on the part of the Japanese authorities.

On the one hand, there are opinions that the yen's movement on Tuesday was much smaller (about 1.7%) than when the authorities intervened last year (the change was about 4%) to support the yen.

On the other hand, there are no clear explanations about the reasons for the sharp movement — except as a manifestation of the authorities’ interest in preventing excessive weakening of the national currency. Perhaps only about the influence of psychology when reaching and short-term exceeding the round figure — an effect that, by the way, is characteristic of the cryptocurrency market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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US Dollar Falls Ahead of Employment Data

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0540. The European currency ended the last two trading sessions with moderate growth, which allowed the pair to retreat from the record lows of December 2022. The driver of the correctional dynamics was the expectation of the publication of the September report on the labour market in the United States. Analysts are currently forecasting a slight decline in new nonfarm payrolls from 187.0k to 170.0k. Average hourly wages in September could rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, while the annual figure will likely remain unchanged at 4.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to correct from 3.8% to 3.7%.

At the same time, trading participants have information from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company presented on Wednesday: in September, the dynamics of employment in the private sector slowed from 180.0k to 89.0k, which turned out to be significantly worse than the 153.0k expected by experts. A more confident growth of the single currency was hampered by statistics on foreign trade in Germany, published the day before: export volumes in August decreased by 1.2% after -1.9% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.4%, and imports, by 0.4% after -1.3% with a forecast of growth of 0.5%. Against this background, the country's trade surplus decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.6 billion euros, which turned out to be better than expectations of 15.0 billion euros.

Based on the highs of two days, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue to move towards the lower border.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Natural Gas Price Reaches 8-month High

As the chart shows, yesterday, the price of gas rose above USD 3.60 for the first time since January of this year.

It can be assumed that events in Israel contributed to the price increase, since the Middle East is an important supplier of gas.

However, note that the bullish momentum started much earlier — gas prices have risen approximately 20% since the October 3 low. This confirms our assumptions about the bullish trend, which we published in the review on August 25th.

Perhaps the price of gas is influenced by seasonal factors and fears that weather conditions in the coming winter will be difficult.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Bitcoin Price Cannot Stay above $28k

The first day of October coincided with the first attempt of the bulls to overcome the resistance level of USD 28,000 per coin, but on the 2nd of October, the sellers showed their presence. Since that time, the price has repeatedly exceeded the level of 28k, but each time not for long, after which a decline followed.

Yesterday, there was another such decline. As the BTC/USD chart shows today, the rate is around 27,600. And it seems that the bulls may no longer have the strength to make a new attempt.

Analyzing the bitcoin market on September 8, we pointed out a list of bearish arguments that give reason to doubt the positive prospects for bitcoin. The described price action of about 28k is another bearish argument in this list.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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BOE Concentrates on Persistent Inflation Whilst US Stocks Fly

Bank of England policy committee member Catherine Mann emphasised the need for a more aggressive central bank response to prolonged inflation exceeding target levels. She highlighted the importance of addressing not only the current high inflation but also the risk of inflation expectations rising in the future. Ms. Mann's call for a proactive approach to inflation management came after her preference for a rate increase at the BOE's last meeting, while her colleagues voted to maintain the status quo.

According to Ms. Mann, "Policy has to be more aggressive because it has to address both a drift in expectations as well as the actual inflation." She expressed concern about the persistence and duration of elevated inflation, underscoring the importance of managing embedded inflation expectations.

The British pound is moving upward against the US dollar for the sixth day.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Major Currency Pairs Correct after Sharp Declines

The fairly positive US jobs report released last Friday ultimately led to a corrective pullback in almost all currency pairs. The US dollar fell against the yen, commodity currencies, the pound, and the euro. However, not all pairs managed to overcome the key ranges; the size of the corrective pullback and the possibility of a reversal will depend on the incoming fundamental events of the coming trading sessions.

USD/CAD

In the US dollar/loonie pair, we are seeing the bearish tweezer pattern, formed on October 5, working out. The combination was confirmed the next day with a long black candle. The nearest range where the price can fall is from 1.3540 to 1.3500. Cancellation of the downward scenario may occur after a confident consolidation above 1.3700.

Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak today, in particular Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller. Comments from these officials could have a significant impact on the pair's pricing.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Attempts Recovery While USD/CHF Revisits Support

EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0550 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now trading near the 1.0450 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0550 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.9140 and 0.9080 support levels.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9080 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0450 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0485 barrier to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0570. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0615 resistance. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high.

Immediate support on the downside is 1.0595. The next major support is near a bullish trend line at 1.0570 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high. A downside break below the 1.0570 support could send the pair toward the 1.0485 level.

Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0615 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0650 level. An upside break above the 1.0650 level might send the pair toward the 1.0700 resistance.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0720 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0800 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NZD/USD Analysis: The Rate Reaches a 2-month High

This morning, as the NZD/USD chart shows, one USD was worth 0.605 New Zealand dollar, for the first time since August 10.

The strengthening of NZD was facilitated by:
→ rumours that China is planning a major stimulus package to boost the economy amid the real estate crisis. And the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as one can see, are showing growth against the backdrop of positive news from China;
→ the weakness of the US dollar due to the fact that Fed members make it clear in their statements that it is no longer worth raising rates further.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Bank of England Expresses Concern Over Overvalued US Tech Stocks Amid Macro-Economic Uncertainty

The Bank of England has voiced concerns over the soaring valuations of US technology stocks, citing the current macroeconomic landscape and the surge in interest rates. This commentary underscores the evolving dynamics in global financial markets.

The UK stock market stands in stark contrast to its tech-focused counterpart in the United States, particularly the NASDAQ. The London Stock Exchange is home to well-established blue-chip firms with traditional corporate foundations.

These companies span industries such as retail, pharmaceuticals, energy, leisure, and heavy industry. In contrast, NASDAQ boasts tech giants from Silicon Valley, including titans like Apple and Google, as well as recent entrants through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), with valuations soaring into the billions.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Dollar Continues to Correct in Anticipation of the FOMC Minutes Publication

In the middle of this week, the main currency pairs continued their upward correction against the US dollar. Buyers of the EUR/USD pair managed to pass the level of 1.0600, the GBP/USD currency pair tested the important level of 1.2300, and sellers of USD/JPY yesterday tried to break through the support level at 148.00. However, the current market situation may change at any time, as very important macroeconomic data is expected to be published in the coming trading sessions.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading in a narrow sideways range between 148.20 and 149.50. Investors are wary of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan, which may become relevant if the price passes the level of 150.00. However, sellers are in no hurry to enter into transactions since the Fed most likely does not plan to change monetary policy in the coming months. The large gap between yen and dollar interest rates makes this pair very attractive to buy and prevents it from falling below 148.00-147.00. Any hints of a change in monetary policy by the American regulator or disappointment in the fundamental indicators of the dollar could cause a sharp decline in the pair.

Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the publication of data on producer prices (PPI) in the United States for September is expected. At 21:00 GMT+3, the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published. Alsoб early the next morning, it is worth paying attention to the speech of a member of the board of directors of the Bank of Japan, Asahi Noguchi.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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E-mini S&P 500 Positive Ahead of Earnings Season

As we wrote in our October 8 market analysis, the S&P 500 chart made bullish arguments, including:
→ the S&P 500 price has reached the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ RSI fell to its minimum in 12 months.

Technically, these factors were justified, because today, the S&P 500 has strengthened, the price is near the psychological level of 4,400. Yesterday’s news also contributed to this:
→ inflation suddenly accelerated. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was 0.5%, although 0.3% was expected. The acceleration of inflation was influenced by the September peak in the oil market. But with the price of oil already back more than 10% from its peak, traders are not expected to be too worried about the PPI rise;
→ a "majority" of Fed officials thought another rate hike would "likely be appropriate" to help cool demand and bring inflation closer to its 2% inflation target over the next two years, while "some" said “no". “Participants generally noted that it was important to balance the risk of overtightening against the risk of insufficient tightening,” the minutes said.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Markets Awaiting US Inflation Data

Yesterday, the major currency pairs were trading in fairly narrow ranges. Positive data on the US producer price index for September and the publication of the latest Fed minutes did not contribute to increased volatility in the market. Most likely, investors are expecting today's inflation data in the US. If the indicator is at the forecast level or even lower, this could lead to a change in the Fed's monetary policy, which in turn could contribute to the start of a medium-term downward impulse for the US dollar. Conversely, high inflation could force officials to keep rates high for a long time, which could trigger a new wave of greenback growth.

USD/CAD

After a sharp decline last week, the USD/CAD pair found strong support in the 1.3600-1.3570 range. At these marks, there are alligator lines on the daily timeframe. Price behaviour at a given location can provide more clues as to the future direction of the pair. A sharp rebound from current levels could return the price back to 1.3700-1.3780. But a move below 1.3520 may contribute to a renewed decline in the direction of lower fractals at 1.3415 and 1.3370.

In addition to inflation data, today at 15:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Also, at 18:00 GMT+3, weekly data on crude oil inventories will be released.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Price of Gold Rises More Than 5% Since Last Friday

The rise in the price of the (considered a safe haven) asset was driven by:
→ escalation of geopolitical conflicts;
→ increasing US government debt and rising bond prices make gold a more attractive option for a defensive portfolio.

Also, according to Business Insider, global central banks are buying gold in an effort to diversify reserves away from the dollar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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GBP/USD Analysis: The Rate Is Near October Highs

In early October, the GBP/USD decline exceeded 10% from its summer high, which was very worrying. However, the weakening of the US dollar and changes in sentiment in the US government bond market allowed the pound to strengthen.

Important news about UK GDP was published this morning:
→ The Office for National Statistics estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in August 2023, after falling 0.6% in July 2023;
→ production of services grew by 0.4% in August 2023 and became the main driver of GDP growth;
→ the construction sector performed worse than others, falling 0.5% in August 2023 after falling 0.4% in July 2023.

In general, although the UK GDP picture gives reason for some optimism, the GBP/USD rate today reacted with a decline to the publication of this news. Perhaps influencing factors that are noticeable to technical analysis are coming into play?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Gold Price Surges While Crude Oil Price Dips Amid Israel-Hamas War

Gold price surged above the $1,848 resistance after the Israel-Hamas war escalated. Crude oil price saw swing moves and is now trading below the $83.70 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,810 zone against the US Dollar.
• A key rising channel is forming with support near $1,868 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $86.00 region and corrected gains.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $83.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,810 zone. The price started a steady increase after the Israel-Hamas war.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,848 and $1,868 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $1,885 zone before the bears appeared.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Probability of Oil Prices Rising to $100 Is Increasing

This week, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman visited Moscow to discuss plans for oil production in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Russian president announced that Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are "likely" to continue.

Meanwhile, Magid Shenouda, deputy chief executive of commodities trading giant Mercuria, told the industry conference in the UAE that oil prices could reach USD 100 a barrel if the situation in the Middle East worsens.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.