Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Markets focus on Bitcoin as volatility takes it to 5-month high

The much publicized 'crypto winter' has been a long, drawn out period of relatively low values among major cryptocurrencies, lasting now for several months.

Along with the depressed values compared to the incredible volatility of 2021 which showed Bitcoin race to over $60,000 and below $20,000 and back again, there has been a stagnant market for long enough for those who were on the edge of their seat a just a year and a half ago to fall asleep during the winter of 2022.

This weekend, however, has caused some market participants to wake from the months-long slumber and begin to take note as Bitcoin values suddenly climbed to $23,900 by Sunday evening (UK market time).

That is almost $1000 higher than the value at which Bitcoin began the very same day, its value having been at $23,003 at 00.30 in the first half hour of the morning UK time.

Over the 24 hours until 12.00pm today UK time, Bitcoin had risen by 2% which is significant considering the millpond-like doldrums it has been in over the past few weeks.

This sudden rally was short lived, however, and by 13.00 UK time, Bitcoin values had descended to $23,100 which is a similar value to the pre-rally price on Sunday morning.

Whilst the return to the low $23,000 range may appear a damp squib to those who had become excited by the sudden upward direction which took place yesterday, the movement does at least demonstrate that some market volatility was present after a long period of stagnation, hence why this has been a talking point among many analysts and reporters over the past 24 hours.

What is of perhaps greater interest is that the high point reached yesterday evening put Bitcoin value at its highest point since August 12, 2022, when it traded at $24,412 and despite tailing off a bit during the course of today, Bitcoin is still at its second highest point in the last six months.

Therefore, whilst perhaps a small blip in the market value of the world's most popularly traded cryptocurrency may appear short lived, this is the highest value in the past five months, which is definitely something to write about.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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Brent Crude Oil price takes a bashing overnight

During the past two years, oil, along with many other raw material commodities which are used to produce energy products, has been very volatile.

Perhaps given the nature of its supply, which is largely in the hands of the OPEC+ countries whose national economies depend on the export of oil around the world, the 'oil cartel' has a lot of bargaining power over its consumers, hence in times of economic strife or geopolitical instability, oil prices have always been ones to watch.

First of all there was supply chain and logistical curtailment due to lockdowns across many Western countries, which led to the increase in the price of oil during 2020 and 2021, and then the sanctioning of the settlement accounts of Russian oil companies by European governments which led to any oil bought having to be settled in Rubles in bank accounts in Moscow, leading to rapidly accelerating ruble prices and oil supply constraints for European customers.

Therefore, oil prices have been high for 2 years, however this morning during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) took a dive in value and by 8.45am UK time, it was languishing at $76.92 per barrel, a steep drop over yesterday's values and a very noticeable drop compared to this time last week when the value was $82.27 per barrel on January 23, its highest value this month.

During the past 30 days, Brent Crude Oil has been very volatile in its values, having begun the month at a low point of $73.08 on January 4, before accelerating past the $80 mark by mid January, then retracting again before heading back to the high of over $82 last week, and now it is back down to the mid-$70s again.

Despite the overall rollercoaster ride of volatility this month, Brent Crude Oil is down overall by 4.3% during the past 30 days.

This has been an interesting period for commodities traders, and whilst in many Western markets, gasoline prices are now far lower than they were six months ago, the price of crude oil continues to fluctuate considerably.

In some cases, vehicle fuel prices at the pumps on the retail market have decreased by over 50p (British) or 50c (Euro) per liter in six months. For example, in July 2022, motorists in the United Kingdom were paying approximately £1.99 per liter, now unleaded fuel is readily available at around £1.50 per liter, and in France, in July 2022 unleaded fuel was retailing at an extremely high 2.20 Euros per liter, whereas during January 2023 it has been selling at anywhere between 1.70 and 1.87 Euros per liter.

Volatility is the the lifeblood of trading, so says the old adage, and the oil price this month has certainly been on point in this respect.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 31st JAN 2023

BTCUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $22396

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $22396 on 25th Jan, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar and are now ranging above the $22500 handle in the European trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $22396 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 22543 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 22992 in the European trading session today.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the daily time frame.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

We have also detected a bullish doji star pattern in the 30-minute time frame indicating bullish trends.

The relative strength index is at 56.23 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 23000 and 24500.

The average true range is indicating high market volatility with a mildly bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $22396
• The commodity channel index is indicating a neutral level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $22884
• The short-term range is mildly bullish

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $22396

The price of bitcoin witnessed a downwards correction after touching $23926 as the target of $24K was rejected by the bulls. Now the markets are ranging into a consolidation channel above the $22500 handle.

After the consolidation phase is over, we are expecting upside moves in the range of $23500 to $24000 levels.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the 15-minute time frame.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend reversal pattern with the moving average MA20 in the 15-minute time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $20780 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls, and at $21091 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4-week high.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 22928 and Fibonacci resistance level of 22950 after which the path towards 23000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has decreased by 1.85% by 432.62$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 25.925 billion. We can see a decrease of 5.10% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin has reached its highest level this month at $23956 which is a positive sign after the harsh crypto winter season seen last year.

The daily RSI is printing at 69.281 which indicates a very strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $22396 towards the $23983 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $23098 which is a pivot point, and at $23527 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $24000 with a consolidation zone of $23500.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): is at 1256.90 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 52.29 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change : is at 8.37 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 856.36 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY At Risk of Fresh Decline

EUR/USD is facing resistance near the 1.0880 zone. EUR/JPY is also facing hurdles and remains at a risk of a downward move below 141.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a fresh increase from the 1.0800 zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0895 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY started a steady increase after it found support near the 140.75.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 141.65 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 1.0800 zone and started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0820 and 1.0840 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 1.0850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0913 swing high to 1.0802 low (formed on FXOpen).

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

However, the pair struggled to stay above the 1.0865 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It failed to clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0913 swing high to 1.0802 low.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0840 level. The next major support sits near the 1.0825 level, below which the pair could even test the 1.0800 support zone.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0800 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0725. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0870 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0895 on the hourly chart.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level. A clear move above the 1.0920 resistance might send the price towards 1.0950. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.1050 resistance zone in the near term.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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USD down slightly ahead of Fed announcement as interest rates look toward 15 year high

Today, the Federal Reserve bank in the United States is set to make an announcement regarding another potential interest rate increase, which would represent the latest in a long string of such actions over the past year.

Should this proceed, it may dampen the enthusiasm of investors, and therefore have a negative effect on the US economy overall.

However, the US Dollar has remained strong, and when looking at this morning's chart analysts across the world are predicting that the interest rates in the United States may once again be increased.

As a result, it would perhaps be very understandable to consider the possibility that the US Dollar, which has been has been very strong this year against other major currencies, could perhaps decrease in value rapidly.

The reality is quite different and the US Dollar has only made a very slight dip against some of its major peers.

The British Pound was up to the high 1.23 range against the US Dollar early this morning during the London trading session.

This is because a number of central banks around the world are set to increase interest rates, and during the course of this week it is widely estimated that the combination of central banks in many key nations with developed financial markets economies may increase interest rates to highest levels since the financial crisis, stoking anxiety among some investors that this month’s bond market rally underestimates evidence of persistent inflation.

At the end of the 2000s, when the global financial crisis hit and major financial institutions with long heritages began to collapse - notably the high profile and catastrophic demise of Lehman Brothers, and subsequent other disasters such as the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns - the world's oldest investment bank - and nationalization of many large banks such as Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds due to their over-exposure to secured and unsecured credit, as well as the aggressive takeover attempt by Royal Bank of Scotland which resulted in it having to be bailed out by the British taxpayer, the interest rates were at around 5% in the United Kingdom, the Eurozone and the United States.

Since then, they have been incredibly low across the 2010s, and only in 2021 did they begin to rise again. It is looking likely that they will be up to the 5% mark again.

Of course, it is still a far cry from the 15% interest rates that were commonplace in the United Kingdom and some other key markets during the early 1990s, which is perhaps remarkable considering the geopolitical circumstances of the past three years, but 5% is a massive increment over the less than 1% many consumers have been used to for many years until 2021.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 02nd FEB, 2023

ETHUSD: Three White Soldiers Pattern Above $1535

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1535 on 30th Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1650 handle today in the Asian trading session.

After touching a high of $1694 the prices have retracted due to profit taking by the medium-term investors.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a three white soldiers pattern above the $1535 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1665 and moving into a strong bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1668 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1673 after which the path towards 1700 will get cleared.

We have also seen the formation of a Bullish engulfing line in the weekly time frame.

The price of Ethereum is ranging near the support of the channel in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

The relative strength index is at 68.86 indicating a strong demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought market, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a strong buy market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a strong buy signal at the current market level of $1666.

ETH is now trading above both the 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

• Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1535 mark
• Short-term range appears to be strongly bullish
• ETH continues to remain above the $1650 level
• The average true range is indicating less market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1535

ETHUSD continues to trade higher against the US dollar and bitcoin. The price of Ethereum remains supported above the $1600 level and now we are testing the break of the $1700 handle.

We can see the formation of a B=bullish price crossover pattern with adaptive moving average AMA20 in the weekly time frame.

The momentum indicator is back over zero in the daily time frame indicating bullish trends.

We have also detected the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 4-hour time frame.

ETHUSD touched an intraday low of 1633 and an intradayhHigh of 1694 in the Asian trading session today.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold level, which indicates that the prices will continue to rise in the medium-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1594 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%, and $1637 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls.

ETH has increased by 5.88% with a price change of 92.60$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 9.958 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 60.00% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which is due to heavy buying seen at lower levels.

The Week Ahead

ETH has already made a failed attempt to cross the $1700 level by touching $1694 today. Now we are expecting a retest of the $1700 breach after which the next targets are located at $1800 and $1900 levels.

At present, the prices are moving in a consolidation channel above the $1650 level.

We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1535 towards the $1684 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1701 which is the pivot point 2nd resistance level and at $1868 which is a 14-day RSI at 80%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1800 with a consolidation zone of $1750.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index, RSI (14): is at 68.86 indicating a BUY

The moving average convergence divergence, MACD (12,26): is at 21.75 indicating a BUY

The average directional index: is at 23.83 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 22.11 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signals Downside Extension

AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.7150 resistance zone. NZD/USD is also declining and reaching an important support at 0.6450.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from the 0.7150 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.7080 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
• NZD/USD also started a downside correction after it failed to clear 0.6540.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6440 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar gained pace above the 0.7100 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even spiked above the 0.7150 level before the bears appeared.

The pair traded as high as 0.7157 on FXOpen and started a fresh downside correction. There was a clear move below the 0.7120 and 0.7100 support levels. The pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6983 swing low to 0.7157 high.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.7080 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The pair is now trading below 0.7080 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.7050 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6983 swing low to 0.7157 high. The next support could be the 0.7000 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7000 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6940 level.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.7080 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.7100 level.

A close above the 0.7100 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7150.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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Watch FXOpen's January 30 - February 3 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• What CHATGPT means for investors
• Brent Crude Oil price takes a bashing overnight
• Markets focus on Bitcoin as volatility takes it to 5-month high
• The reaction of financial markets to the decision of the Fed

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo

 

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GBP/USD Drops Sharply While EUR/GBP Gains Momentum

GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.2200 support zone. EUR/GBP is rising and trading above the 0.8920 support zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2400 resistance against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a steady increase above the 0.8900 and 0.8920 levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.8945 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a major decline from well above the 1.2350 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained pace below the 1.2300 level to move into a bearish zone.

There was a clear move below the 1.2200 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The bears even pumped the price below the 1.2120 level and a low is formed near 1.2031 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating losses and trading below the 1.2100 level.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.2100 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.2120 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2400 swing high to 1.2031 low.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. A clear move above the 1.2120 level could spark a decent increase.

The next major resistance sits near the 1.2215 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2400 swing high to 1.2031 low. Any more gains might send the pair towards the 1.2250 resistance zone.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2030 level. The next major support is near the 1.2000 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.1920 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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British Pound hits the deck as Western markets raise interest rates

At the end of last week, the much anticipated action from many central banks across the Western world took place, and interest rates were increased once again.

There were many forecasts during the advent of the interest rate rises which largely focused on the United States Federal Reserve Bank's anticipated rate rise, however the European Central Bank and the Bank of England both conducted interest rate increases at the same time.

In the United Kingdom, which has been reported to have the least investable provincial economy in Europe, placing it alongside Greece, the effect has been the greatest.

The British Pound dipped to its lowest point against the US Dollar in over a month, and is currently trading at 1.21.

This has ended the steady climb in the value of the British Pound which has taken place over the past few weeks, as it hauled itself out of oblivion after many months of declining values during the summer of 2022, ending in November.

Interest rates in the United Kingdom were raised to 4%, which is not far off the 5% that was predicted by many investment banks in the summer of 2022, whose analysts predicted that by January 2023, interest in the UK would rise to approximately 5% which appeared a grave prediction given their very low position back then which was under 2%.

Now, at 4%, there is grave concern, and even before this level had been reached, mortgage lenders across the United Kingdom had been removing mortgage products from the market to avoid borrowers being unable to service monthly payments should the interest rates increase to these levels.

Whilst it may sound alarmist, 4% is nowhere near the 15% interest that was demanded back in 1991 and 1992, but back then borrowing was quite low, and even though that period was considered to be very much a period of austerity, it was recoverable quite quickly.

Today, borrowing is at a much higher level and mortgage lenders are often exposed to individual borrowings exceeding £500,000 whereas in the early 1990s it was between £10,000 and £20,000. At the end of the 1990s, the average property price rocketed and more than doubled in just one year, and has been rising ever since, but salaries have not kept up with this, hence greater exposure to debt.

When interest rates were less than 1%, this was not a problem, but now with increasing rates, the cash strapped are finding themselves lumbered with unserviceable repayments.

London remains a global powerhouse and has its own economy which is still flourishing as it is an influential capital which conducts global business at top level, however the rest of the country is a very different matter.

Just two weeks ago, the Institute for Public Policy Research, a well recognized think tank, noted that outside London, especially the north of England is fiscally barren. The report stated that only Geece has lower levels of public and private investment in a ranking of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and that if it was not for London, the UK would be alongside Greece in its economic performance.

A very grave set of statistics, which perhaps show why the British Pound showed the biggest decline of any major currency over the past few days despite all of Europe and the United States also having conducted interest rate rises.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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After a long decline, Tesla leads the charge as EV stocks are back in vogue

The past few months have demonstrated that, like most extremely high profile phases and fads, the euphoria surrounding the world’s sudden focus on electric vehicles after over 120 years of celebrating the internal combustion engine faded, and with that, down went the massively inflated stock prices of some of their manufacturers.

Tesla was the disrupting influence that suddenly appeared from Silicon Valley just over 10 years ago with a roadster based on the Lotus Elise which very few people can remember, before suddenly heading onto the streets with its first ever sedan, the Model S, which in 2014 took the world by storm largely because it looked and drove like a normal luxury car, but was fully electric.

Before this, there had been some electric car prototypes by mainstream car manufacturers, and one or two that had gone to market, only to be met with derision and criticism, and were largely viewed as extremely unfashionable examples of social awkwardness on wheels.

Tesla changed all that, and since then has changed quite a lot of other aspects of how technology firms do business - it is the first publicly listed company to become a cryptocurrency whale for example, and did so without any concern or objection from shareholders or the exchange it is listed on.

This year, however, the extreme faddishness which has surrounded electric vehicles to the extent that almost every mainstream manufacturer has spent the past three years rallying to introduce new electric models when they had no intention of doing so prior to the Tesla era, and marketing campaigns everywhere from the internet to billboards are depicting the very latest electric car from almost everywhere across the globe, has faded.

Tesla stock, listed on the NASDAQ exchange, has been depreciating like a 1970s Lancia after a winter in Manchester, and some newcomers to the electric vehicle market, set up as new companies over the past few years and which only produce electric vehicles, have been following the declining trend that Tesla has experienced.

Perhaps it was inevitable, as some of them, total newcomers to the automotive industry and without a credible product, had raised billions of dollars via Special Purchase Acquisition Company (SPAC) listings on NASDAQ, meaning that they could bypass the usual levels of due diligence required to list on a public exchange and simply raise billions without, in some cases, even delivering a single product.

In this arena of newcomers to the auto industry, Tesla remains the stalwart and its stock has started to rebound.

Tesla stock was up a considerable 4.78% at the close of the US trading session yesterday, and some of the less well known electric vehicle producers are also experiencing a resurgence in values.

Currently analysts are looking at Rivian, the electric truck manufacturer, North American luxury electric car brand Lucid and Polestar, Volvo’s performance electric car division.

Tesla stock has been rising from the doldrums over the past month, and is a remarkable 62% higher than it was 30 days ago, showing that whilst the world has got used to Tesla models now that they are no longer a novelty and are utterly ubiquitous, and even have been subject to some degree of criticism for being bland or less of a quality product than the established luxury brands, there is still a degree of interest in Elon Musk and his forward thinking ideology.

Unlike other car brands which tend to toe the conservative line, Tesla is the product of Elon Musk, who is well known for edge-of-the-seat commercial decisions and for the public not knowing what he will do next!

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 07th FEB 2023

BTCUSD – Bullish Harami Pattern Above $22658

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $22658 on 07th Feb, the prices started to correct upwards against the US Dollar and are now ranging above the $23000 handle in the European trading session today.

The price is back over the Pivot point in the daily timeframe indicating bullish trends.

We can clearly see a bullish Harami pattern above the $22658 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 22658 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 23037 in the European trading session today.

The momentum indicator is back over zero in the 4-hourly timeframe indicating a bullish scenario.

The MACD indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the 1-hourly timeframe.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short-term a decline in the prices is expected.

The RSI indicator is back over 50 in both the 30-minutes and 1-hourly timeframe indicating bullish trends.

Relative strength index is at 58.15 indicating a strong demand for Bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly Simple Moving average and below its 100 hourly Exponential Moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a BUY signal, which means that in the immediate shor-term we are expecting targets of 23500 and 24500.

Average true range is indicating less market volatility with a mild bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin bullish continuation seen above $22658.
• The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level.
• The price is now trading just above its Pivot levels of $22887.
• Short-term range is mild bullish.

Bitcoin Bullish Continuation Seen Above $22658

The prices of Bitcoin witnessed a downwards correction after crossing the $24000 levels. Now the markets are ranging into a consolidation channel above the $22500 handle.

After the consolidation phase is over, we are expecting upside moves in the range of $23500 to $24500 levels.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the Adaptive Moving average AMA20 in both the 30-minutes and 1-hourly timeframes.

The immediate short-term outlook for Bitcoin is mild bullish, medium-term outlook has turned as bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin support zone is located at $22342 which is a 14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 50% and at $22581 which is a 3-10 Day MACD Oscillator Stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance levels of 23053 and Fibonacci resistance levels of 23352 after which the path towards 23500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has increased by 0.84% by 190.97$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 24.800 Billion. We can see an increase of 13.07% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin has reached its highest levels this month at $24209 which was last seen on 20th Aug, 2022. We are now looking to cross the $25000 levels this month.

Daily RSI is printing at 62.55 which indicates a very strong demand for Bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trendline from $22658 towards the $24118 levels.

The prices of BTCUSD are now facing its resistance zone located at $23406 which is a 14-Day RSI at 70% and at $23594 at which the price crosses 9-Day Moving Average Stalls.

Weekly outlook is projected at $25000 with a consolidation zone of $24000.

Technical Indicators:

Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (12,26): It is at 2.60 indicating a BUY.

Ultimate Oscillator: It is at 57.18 indicating a BUY.

Rate of Price Change: It is at 0.226 indicating a BUY.

Bull/Bear Power (13): It is at 175.73 indicating a BUY.

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EUR/USD Reverses Gains While USD/JPY Aims Higher

EUR/USD is correcting lower and trading below 1.0800. USD/JPY is rising and might aim more upsides if it stays above the 130.20 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1035 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY is attempting a fresh increase above the 131.00 support zone.
• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 130.00 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro gained pace above the 1.0950 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1000 and 1.1020 resistance levels.

However, the pair failed to surpass the 1.1035 level. A high was formed near 1.1033 and the pair started a fresh decline. There was a clear move below the 1.0950 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

The pair even broke the 1.0850 support level. A low is formed near 1.0670 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 1.0700 level.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0750 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0750 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1033 swing high to 1.0670 low.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0800 level. An upside break above 1.0800 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might visit 1.0850 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1033 swing high to 1.0670 low.

Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0920. If not, it could continue to move down. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0700 level. The first major support is near the 1.0670 level.

The main support sits near the 1.0650 zone, below which the pair could start a major decline. In the stated case, the pair might dive towards the 1.0520 support zone.

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Bitcoin values decline as major exchange halts Dollar transfers

The now rather infamous 'crypto winter' which referred to the latter part of 2022 had appeared to show some signs of subsiding recently.

After many months of relatively low and somewhat stagnant cryptocurrency values, some of the more popular digital currencies had begun to make a little bit of headway over the first few weeks of 2023.

By the end of January 2022, it looked as though the value of many of the most popular cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, were emerging from the doldrums and beginning to make a resurgence in value, with Bitcoin hitting $23,783 on January 30.

Of course, this is a far cry from the $60,000 ballpark which Bitcoin reached in 2021, but considering the under-$20,000 range it has been languishing in for a few months, it is a considerable upturn in fortunes.

However, since yesterday, Bitcoin has been declining in value once again, going from $23,380 during the night (1.15am UK time) to $23,159 by 11.00am UK time today.

That is a 66 point decrease in value, 0.28% in percentage terms, which may not seem a large movement, but it does represent a downturn of considerable monetary value, putting an end to the climbing values.

It could be that accessibility may be a factor, as Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges announced yesterday that will suspend U.S. dollar withdrawals and deposits for international customers beginning today, resulting in a significant capital outflow from Binance and Bitcoin withdrawal figures going up overall.

Binance stated that it remained 'net positive' after the withdrawal run took place, however such a rush to divest from an exchange in one go means that actual trading volume in Bitcoin would likely be affected, which may also be contributing to the lower values today.

Binance has stated that this suspension of US dollar transactions is temporary, but of course any action which causes a mass withdrawal of assets from a trading venue is always likely to affect overall trading volume.

So, whilst overall Bitcoin is being viewed through a bullish lens, largely because of the US Federal Reserve bank's latest less aggressive rate hike of just 25 basis points, which helped Bitcoin to maintain its rising trajectory and outperform as compared to other asset classes, any action affecting trading in which a mass withdrawal takes place is likely to have some effect.

It may be temporary, and if so, volatility is definitely on its way back to the crypto market.

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Gold Price Turns Red And Crude Oil Price Could Correct Gains

Gold price is moving lower and trading below $1,880. Crude oil price is facing a strong resistance near the $79 zone and might correct lower.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a strong decline below the $1,900 level against the US Dollar.
• It traded below a key rising channel with support near $1,872 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $72.50 support zone.
• There is a connecting trend line forming with resistance near $79.10 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price struggled to stay above the $1,950 level against the US Dollar. The price started a strong decline and traded below the $1,920 support zone.

The bears even pushed the price below $1,900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a break below a key rising channel with support near $1,872 on the hourly chart of gold. The price traded below the $1,865 level.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

A low is formed near $1,859 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $1,870 level.

The stated level is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,890 swing high to $1,859 low. The next key hurdle is near the $1,875 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,890 swing high to $1,859 low is also near the $1,875 level. A clear upside break above the $1,875 resistance could send the price towards $1,890.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,858 level. The next major support is near the $1,850 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,832 support zone.

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Watch FXOpen's February 6 - 10 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

• British Pound hits the deck as Western markets raise interest rates
• After a long decline, Tesla leads the charge as EV stocks are back in vogue
• On the state of the US economy
• Natural gas prices are nearing new lows of the year

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #weeklyvideo

 

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GBP/USD Could Extend Losses, USD/CAD Breaks Key Support

GBP/USD is showing bearish signs below the 1.2150 resistance. USD/CAD traded below the 1.3400 support, which might now act as a resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD is struggling below the 1.3420 and 1.3400 support levels.
• There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3380 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above 1.2400 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair gained bearish momentum after there was a break below the 1.2250 support.

The pair even broke the 1.2150 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent swing high was formed near 1.2193 on FXOpen before the price started another decline. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1961 swing low to 1.2193 high.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

It is now trading below 1.2050 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2065 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2060 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2100 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.2200 barrier in the near term.

If not, the pair could continue to move down and might even break the 1.2040 support. The next major support is near 1.2000 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1961 swing low to 1.2193 high.

If there is a downside break, GBP/USD might test the 1.1960 support. The next major support sits at 1.1850, where the bulls might take a stand.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

 

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British Pound and Euro head for 1 month low against US Dollar

The once-lacking volatility among major currencies is back again, and this time it is the remarkably steady US Dollar which is creating a gulf between itself and some of its peers on the other side of the Atlantic.

This morning, the US Dollar rose in value against the Euro and British Pound so significantly that it plunged the Euro and British Pound to sudden lows, with the Euro hitting its lowest value against the US Dollar in over a month, and the British Pound hitting its second lowest point in over a month against the greenback.

The sudden upsurge of the US Dollar against these two majors is quite fascinating, and demonstrates the US Dollar's continued strength despite the precarious economic and geopolitical circumstances that surround the United States.

This morning, the British Pound headed down to 1.20 against the US Dollar, and the Euro to 1.07.

The United States has been faced with similar economic challenges to those faced by Europe over the past two years, and in some cases has had greater difficulties such as higher inflation this time last year, before it subsided in November 2022, and even more stringent lockdowns and involvement in geopolitical instability than some parts of Europe.

Despite this, the US Dollar has held up extremely well, and now that the inflation level in the United States is back to 6.5% and has been for some momnths compared to double figures in the United Kingdom and Europe ranging from 10% in the western European nations to over 25% in some of the Baltic states which are European Union members, things continue to improve for the Dollar.

It may appear that the lower US inflation figure compared to that of Europe and that of the US a few months ago is a good thing, but this has caused higher costs for large corporations in the United States who have to continue to pay more for supplier contracts or to operate their subsidiaries in Europe, leading to lower revenue figures for many.

The US involvement in the ongoing Ukraine war is also a huge cost, and potentially destabilizing factor, however despite having spent over $100 billion on it, plus pledging to escalate the situation by sending more munitions and last week's revelation by an American investigative journalist that the Nord Stream explosion which occurred in November 2022 was allegedly the work of the US armed forces, the Dollar continues to grow.

Whether its overall stability compared to European and British currency is artificial, or whether the US economy is genuinuely less encumbered than that of mainland Europe or Britain is debatable - however this level of volatility in the light of such unusual times is of great interest within the currency markets.

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FTSE 100 hits 1-year high as 8,000 points is in sight

Another exciting period for the FTSE 100 index is in full swing.

The basket of stocks, which consists of the 100 most prestigious and well capitalized publicly listed companies on London Stock Exchange, is once again heading for the stratosphere.

This morning, the FTSE 100 index is trading at 7,982.99, which represents its highest point in over one year, following a gradual climb which began some four months ago, with only a minor slowing in mid-December which soon gave way to the consistent climb gaining momentum once again.

Over the course of 12 months, the FTSE 100 has increased in value by an 499 points, which is a steady 5.9%, proving that whilst across the Atlantic in New York, the tech stocks listed on NASDAQ are less steady or reliable than the old-school array of mining, pharmaceutical, transport and retail stocks listed on London's FTSE 100.

Old tech appears to be performing better than new tech, if these recent months are anything to gauge it by.

On London's stock exchange, perhaps one of the most ubiquitous sectors is the telecommunications industry, which is well represented within the FTSE 100 index given that Britain is home to some long standing corporate giants, once again alluding to the 'old tech' nature of this particular index. In that regard, Vodafone's stock has risen after Liberty Global has acquired a 4.9% stake, giving a substantial lift to the index.

As the opening bell rang in London, things were on the up and by 9.00am the blue-chip index was at 7,993.23, up 45.63 points (0.57%) putting it within touching distance of the 8,000 mark.

Despite clear signals from economists that inflation is not showing any signs of slowing, and with Britain dealing with a real inflation figure of around 10.5%, the economy is growing and wage inflation appears to be in line with price inflation.

Yes, there are high interest rates, and the economic issues concerned around that would potentially be a weakening of access to private home ownership, therefore denting the overall prosperity of the nation, but London's stock exchange is made up of firms that do not become affected by such overall circumstances.

For example, Coca-Cola HBC (the UK-based bottling firm which packages soft drinks) was in demand, having reported a strong year of organic growth. Retail products and foodstuffs will always be in demand regardless of overall economic circumstances such as high inflation or interest rates, whereas expensive electric trucks manufactured by companies with no provenance and listings on NASDAQ via the SPAC method of bypassing due diligence are not essential items with sales affected if the economic woes are too high.

Hence, NASDAQ has been suffering, especially in the electric vehicle stock and internet stock department, whereas the trad stocks of London are prosperous.

Should the 8,000 point barrier be crossed, this will mark a milestone for the London Stock Exchange's FTSE 100 index, similar to the euphoria surrounding its break through the 7,000 barrier in 2021 during the period of recessions, supply chain woes and ongoing draconian lockdowns hampering the economic situation, with the FTSE 100 being the beacon of light in a very dark tunnel.

Interesting times indeed.

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 14th FEB 2023

BTCUSD: The Evening Star Pattern Below $23432

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week and after touching a high of $22432 started to decline against the US dollar, touching a low of $21450 on 13th Feb.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see the evening star pattern below the $23432 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 21839 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 21683 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a three black crows pattern in the weekly time frame indicating bearish trends.

The Ichimoku price is under the cloud in the 2-hour time frame indicating bearish trends.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term a decline in the prices is expected.

The RSI indicator is back under 50 in the 2-hour time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.

The relative strength index is at 48.77 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin, and the shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 21000 and 20500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bearish momentum.

• Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $23432.
• The commodity channel index is indicating a NEUTRAL level.
• The price is now trading just below its pivot levels of $21764.
• The short-term range is mildly bearish.

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $23432

The price of Bitcoin was unable to cross the $24K mark last week, and we can see a continuous fall in the levels now trading below the $22K handle.

As some of the technical indicators are also giving a neutral stance of the markets, we are expecting that a bullish reversal is possible after touching the $20500 level.

We have also detected the formation of bearish engulfing lines in the 30-minute time frame.

The MACD crosses down its moving average in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.

We can see the formation of a bearish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in both the 30-minute and 2-hour time frames.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $20027 at which the price crosses the 40-day moving average, and at $20937 at which the price crosses the 18-day moving average stalls.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 21703 and Fibonacci support level of 21502 after which the path towards 21000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has increased by 0.57% by 122.76$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 21.364 billion. We can see an increase of 0.42% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin is now facing the extended crypto winter due to which the prices are unable to rise above the $25000 level.

We are now heading towards the $21500 level this week.

The daily RSI is printing at 47.08 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bearish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bearish trend line from $23432 towards the $21576 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its support zone located at $20884 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 13-week high.

The weekly outlook is projected at $21000 with a consolidation zone of $20500.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index (14): It is at 28.57 indicating a SELL.

The ultimate oscillator: It is at 39.72 indicating a SELL.

The rate of price change: It is at -5.67 indicating a SELL.

Bull/bear power (13): It is at -1085.58 indicating a SELL.

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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.