Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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EUR/USD Starts Fresh Increase, USD/JPY Bears Remain In Action

EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1300 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and might accelerate lower below the 113.00 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro started a steady increase above the 1.1280 and 1.1300 resistance levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1270 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY started a fresh decline from well above the 114.50 level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This week, the Euro started a steady increase above the 1.1280 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 1.1300 resistance.

The pair even broke the 1.1320 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed near 1.1382 and there was a downside correction. A low was formed near 1.1235 on FXOpen and the pair is now rising.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1382 swing high to 1.1235 low. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1340 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1360 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1382 swing high to 1.1235 low. The main resistance is near the 1.1380 level, above which the pair could accelerate higher.

If there is no break above 1.1360, the pair might start a downside correction. An immediate support is near the 1.1280. The next major support is near 1.1270.

There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1270 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. Any more losses might push the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1220 support in the near term.

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Global Share Price Growth Across the Decade

A Comparison of Global Companies Share price since 2011

Here at FXOpen, we are interested in the volatility of the stock market and our online share trading account provides clients with the opportunity to trade equity CFDs. Using CFD trading is a different way to invest in shares, as you don’t become the owner of the shares but take a position on whether the price will go up or down, speculating on the future share price of the company.

We have compared how some of the major global companies share price has changed over the past decade.

To demonstrate our findings, we have created an infographic which shows the percentage share increases of some of the world’s biggest companies in the last ten years and how they have compared against one another.

Tesla tops growth over the past decade

In 2012 Tesla’s yearly percentage growth was minus 4%, yet the ten years since have told a completely different story, with their overall percentage increase since 2011 standing at 13,198%. Over double the growth of Netflix who sat second in the global companies we analysed.

The appetite for electric car models has increased in the past decade and that correlates with the rise in Tesla’s share price. Periods of strong sales and reviews have increased the share price over the last ten years.

The automotive company has seen huge rises in their share price since 2019. October 1st 2019 saw their share price at $62.98, while the same period in 2021 it had rise to $780.59, again due to strong sales and the entering of the S&P 500 in late 2020.

Netflix sees huge share price increase

Similar to Tesla, Netflix yearly growth from 2011-2012 was minus 3% but their share price has been soaring ever since, with the share price percentage increasing by over 5000% since 2011.

Due to international expansion in 2012 to Europe and a further 130 new markets in 2016, the subscription numbers have risen dramatically, with this year Netflix hitting 214 million subscribers, nearly ten times the subscribers they had in 2011.

Alongside global expansion, the streaming service started making their original content from 2012 which has been ever present in recent years and in 2012 for the first time they beat HBO as they received 112 Emmy nominations.

Netflix growth on the stock market dominated the other global companies we analysed, as it was the most successful company on the S&P 500 pre 2020. It has only been the past two years where Tesla share price growth levels have surpassed Netflix’s.

Technology giants see strong growth

In the past decade, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon have all seen impressive share price growth of over 1000% since 2011.

Since 2011 Amazon’s share price has seen the highest percentage growth out of the three global technology companies, with an increase of over 1400%. The mammoth growth shown by Amazon is largely due to the popularity of Amazon Prime, their subscription service which saw a huge increase in the pandemic due to consumers having to stay at home.

Microsoft (+1247%) and Apple (+1037%) have both seen their share price increase consistently in the past ten years. Microsoft have seen continued large scale growth on the stock market since the appointment of CEO Satya Nadella in 2014.

Apple share price is largely impacted due to their product demand. Their share price rose in 2015 as a result of the large iPhone screens success while recently they have seen a rise in their share price due to the strong demand of their iPhone 12 at the end of 2020.

Facebook shows huge returns in first decade on the stock market

Since Facebook went public in 2012, the world’s largest social media firm has seen massive growth in their share price. Initially going public at a share price of $38, by 2021 that had increased to over $300, giving an increase of 1477%.

Facebook shares have seen consistent strong growth owing to the increase numbers of active users and the aggressive growth strategy through acquisitions such as Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014. Facebook’s growth in the past decade is significantly higher than its closest competitors, with Twitter’s share price actually decreasing by 4% over that time.

The social media company has had some dips during their time on the stock market so far, in particular in 2018 when 50 million people had their data compromised by Cambridge Analytica.

Pepsi v Coca Cola

Pepsi-Co and Coca Cola Corporation have been competitors in the non-alcoholic beverage industry for many years. But how does the share price of the two powerhouses compare?

Over the past ten years, the share price of Pepsi-Co has increased by 230%. This is nearly double the 116% increase that Coca Cola has seen since 2011. Both brands had a similar yearly percentage increase in 2012 but since then, the Pepsi-Co share price has seen greater increases than Coca-Cola.

All the global companies on the stock market that we have analysed have seen over 100% growth since 2011 but Tesla and Netflix lead the way with colossal share price increases in the last decade. However, over the past ten years the share price of global companies has shown volatility due to the demand for shares relying on various factors such as company success, news stories and wider economic trends.

FXOpen Blog

 

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Stock CFD trading thwarted by exit of energy and utility companies? Not today!

The past few months have proven very uncertain for a large percentage of the British public as a very unusual circumstance took the energy and utilities market by storm.

Since the summer of 2021, over 20 energy and utilities companies have exited the British market, many of which have gone bankrupt due to the rising cost of oil and gas and the inability of these companies to be able to pass that cost on to their customers.

This has created what is being described as a 'cost of living crisis' as the remaining large energy providers have now been left to onboard those whose services have ended, meaning that bills have gone up for a large percentage of the UK population.

Some of the now defunct energy companies were privately held, however some had their stock publicly listed on the London Stock Exchange, meaning that they were sizeable entities in their own right.

It would therefore be quite understandable for investors and traders to shy away from utilities or energy company stocks at this point in time, especially given the ultra-conservative approach many firms have taken in trying to absorb some of the increased logistical, supply chain and raw materials cost themselves in order to avoid passing it onto customers who are already cash-strapped and therefore could end up getting into debt with their bills, that energy companies may well be not in favour.

Actually, that is not quite the case, as United Utilities PLC, a large British water company, is experiencing a steady increase in investor confidence.

Its value was relatively flat during November, however all of a sudden at the end of the month United Utilities stock began to rise going from £10.94 per share on November 17 to £10.95 by November 26.

Suddenly, the price dropped on December 1, but this morning it has risen once again and recovered very quickly shortly after the opening bell at the London trading session.

Currently, United Utilities is trading at £10.90 per share which is 0.6% up on yesterday, and 1.35% over the weekly moving average.

Whilst these do not necessarily sound like large movements, they are for a utilities company at this particular time, and the trendline that shows investor confidence with steady upward growth with a minor blip of downward volatility yesterday which was very quickly recovered.

Therefore, United Utilities performance on the London market is perhaps a breath of fresh air to traders who have previously enjoyed the blue chip, evergreen nature of utility companies and have recently had their plans thwarted by the exit of many energy firms from the market.

Going with the flow has certainly a double meaning on this occasion!

FXOpen Blog

 

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 02nd DEC, 2021

ETHUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $4,400

Ethereum had a major bearish correction last week when it declined towards the $4,000 handle after touching a high of $4,551.

ETHUSD started this week in a consolidation phase after which it had a bullish reversal towards $4,700 and touched an intraday high of $4,776 in today’s Asian trading session.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above $4,400 which signifies a trend reversal, and ETHUSD crossing $4,700.

Ethereum price has retracted from its highs due to some profit-taking, but the bullish channel continues, and this week, we are aiming for the upsides of $4,700 and $4,900.

ETH is now trading above its pivot level of $4,524 and moving in a mild bullish momentum. The price of ETHUSD has already broken its classic resistance level of $4,545, its Fibonacci resistance level of $4,555, and is now aiming towards the $4,600 handle in the US trading session.

Moving averages are giving a NEUTRAL signal.

ETH is now trading above both its 100 hourly and 200 hourly simple moving averages.

• Ethereum is in a mild bullish channel
• Short-term trend reversal seen above $4,400
• All the major technical Indicators are giving NEUTRAL to SELL signals
• Average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Channel Towards $4,900 Confirmed

ETHUSD is consolidating its gains above $4,500 in the European trading session and we can clearly see that the bullish channel is back.

We are now aiming for the upsides of $4,600 to $4,700 in today’s US trading session. The retracement from $4,000 was very strong, which suggests that there is more room for upsides in Ethereum this month, and $5,500 is the next target.

At present, technical indicators are giving a SELL signal which means that in the immediate short-term we will see a decline before the continuation of a bullish channel.

ETH has declined by -4.26% with a price change of -202.85$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 26.670 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 11% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, which means that new buyers are not entering the markets and waiting for further correction in the levels of Ethereum.

Ethereum Gains in 2021

We have seen the prices of Ethereum increasing continuously throughout 2021. Starting from $730 on 1st Jan 2021, Ether is currently trading at $4,568, yielding a gain of 625% to its investors — more than Bitcoin during the same period of time.

Ethereum’s performance in 2021 is commendable. The current market valuation of this second-largest cryptocurrency stands at 540.52 billon USD.

A number of leading crypto analysts have also predicted that in the next 5 years, Ethereum could outperform bitcoin and become the topmost cryptocurrency in the world.

The Week Ahead

Ether is printing above $4,500 today, and this week, we could $4,700 to $4,900.

The medium to long-term outlook for Ether in December remains bullish with targets of above $5,000.

Ether has already broken its major resistance level of $4,580 and is now facing the next resistance level of $4,800.

Technical Indicators:

Commodity channel index (14-day): indicating a NEUTRAL market

Moving averages convergence divergence (14-day): at -27.11 indicating a SELL

Average directional change (14-day): indicating a NEUTRAL market

Rate of price change: at -2.386 indicating a SELL

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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim Fresh Increase

Gold price is attempting a fresh increase above the $1,780 resistance zone. Crude oil price could gain pace if there is a clear move above the $68.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh decline from well above the $1,800 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,775 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price declined sharply below $72.00 and $70.00 levels.
• There was a break above a major declining channel with resistance near $66.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a fresh decline from well above the $1,820 pivot level against the US Dollar. The price declined heavily and it even broke the $1,800 support zone.

The price even settled below the $1,800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, there was a break below the $1,780 support zone. A low was formed near $1,761 on FXOpen and the price is now correcting higher.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

There was a recovery wave above the $1,770 level. The price surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,795 swing high to $1,761 high.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,775 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,775 on the hourly chart of gold. The next major resistance is near the $1,780 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,795 swing high to $1,761 high is also near $1,780. The main resistance is near the $1,800 level. A close above the $1,800 level could open the doors for a steady increase towards $1,820.

The next major resistance sits near the $1,840 level. On the downside, an initial support is near the $1,765 level. The first major support is near the $1,760 level. A downside break below the $1,760 support zone may possibly spark a steady decline. In the stated case, the price could test the $1,720 support.

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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY At Risk of More Downsides

GBP/USD started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.3300 support zone. GBP/JPY is also trading in a bearish zone and is facing hurdles near 150.00.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound started a fresh decline after it faced sellers near 1.3360 against the US Dollar.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3280 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• GBP/JPY also declined heavily below the 150.00 and 150.00 support levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 150.65 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound started a fresh decline after it failed near 1.3360 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3320 and 1.3300 support levels to enter a bearish zone.

There was also a break below the 1.3260 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.3207 on FXOpen and is currently consolidating losses. It recovered a few points above the 1.3230 level.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3308 swing high to 1.3207 low.

The pair is now facing resistance near the 1.3260 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3308 swing high to 1.3207 low. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3280 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

A close above the 1.3280 level could open the doors for more gains. The next major hurdle is near 1.3315 and the 50 hourly SMA, above which the pair could surge towards 1.3350.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.3220 level. The next major support is near the 1.3200 level. If there is a break below the 1.3200 support, the pair could test the 1.3150 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3050 level.

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Concern over winter restrictions create bull market for Gold

There is no doubt that the aversion to risk by many traders is there for all to see, especially when looking at the falling price of physical commodities such as gold.

As the trading week begins today on this wintery 6th of December, a quick glance at recent performance would show that gold had been down 1.21 points as it closed 0.07% down at the end of the trading day on Friday last week.

That in itself may not seem like too much of a drop in value, but considering the steady climb that gold prices have taken during the last two years, a sudden downturn is worthy of note.

This morning, however, it began to rise against the US dollar as the European markets open, with a general consideration among traders that the rise in price from last week's fall is down to risk aversion which has pulled down real interest rates.

With real interest rates now in negative figures, gold is being viewed once again as a de facto store of value by investors taking a longer term view on the markets and who do not want to go in for the wild rides that the crypto market has been experiencing lately.

Whilst the crypto market has certainly gained huge appeal among those who see it as a double-edged virtue; that being the circumvention of the centralized markets which have been subject to all manner of geopolitical circumstances recently as well as the chance to finally get into a genuinely volatile market and realize quick returns, there are still a huge number of investors worldwide who are looking to minimize their risks during times of uncertainty, and uncertain times throughout history have resulted in gold price rises.

Another area of interest which is perhaps causing a move toward confidence in the value of gold is the potential reaction to the sensationalist news reports about Omicron, the latest nomenclature to hit the news after several previous attempts to stir up fear among the corporate world and the investing community.

Although a week has passed since the Omicron name made its way to the public via the international press and various soundbites from global governments, there is still a degree of uncertainty as to how this will be utilized by the policymakers and therefore physical commodities are becoming favourable once again.

Gold was down against the US dollar by 2.6 points at close of business on Friday, but begins the trading session this morning with an increase of 0.26% which can be attributed toward this sentiment considering that there are no important market announcements scheduled this week which could otherwise affect the price differences between spot FX and commodities other than the US CPI figures for November which are due to be announced on Friday.

December is a relatively quiet month for market-related news announcements, therefore it is likely that all eyes will be on the geopolitical effect created by any reactions by governments with regard to Omicron, and whether this will drive investors toward stores of value such as gold and cryptocurrency.

As this week gets off to a start, there certainly is some evidence toward that.

FXOpen Blog

 

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 07th DEC, 2021

BTCUSD: Rounding Bottom Pattern Above $46,000

Bitcoin suffered heavy losses on Dec 4th, which was primarily driven by liquidation of the holdings from the long-term investors in the markets.

Additionally, the Dec 4th bitcoin plunge occurred due to the Omicron coronavirus variant which saw BTC touching a low of $45,000.

We saw BTCUSD touch a high of $59,157 on 30th Nov, and form a bullish momentum before entering a consolidation channel above $55,000.

Today, bitcoin is back in the bullish channel and trading above the $50,000 handle in the European trading session.

We can clearly see a rounding bottom pattern above the $46,000 handle which signifies that the markets have entered into a bullish uptrend.

In the US Trading session, bitcoin is trading in a consolidation phase and is expected to continue doing so.

The short-term outlook for bitcoin has turned MILDLY BULLISH.

Both the Stoch and StochRSI are indicating an OVERBOUGHT level, which means that in the immediate short-term, a decline in the price is expected.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

The average true range is indicating lesser market volatility which means that markets will enter a consolidation phase soon.

• Bitcoin trend reversal is seen above $46,000
• Stoch is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level
• The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $51,140
• All the moving averages are giving a BUY signal at current market level of $51,027

Bitcoin: Trend Reversal Towards $60,000 Confirmed

BTCUSD has already recovered its losses from last week and is now trading above the important psychological support level of $50,000.

We will need to see a confirmation of the uptrend once the prices hit the $52,000 handle some time later today.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL signal, which means that the prices can also get a downward correction before reaching the level of $60,000.

The price of BTCUSD is trading below its classic resistance level of $51,345 and Fibonacci resistance level of $51,478 in the European trading session.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has gone UP by 6.62% with a price change of $3,170 and a 24hr trading volume of USD 37.942 billion. We can see an increase of 12.54% in trading volume as compared to yesterday.

The Week Ahead

We can see that bitcoin has recovered from last week’s losses and is on its way towards reaching the $58,000 handle this week.

The medium to long-term outlook remains BULLISH for bitcoin with the target of $62,000. At present, the markets are giving a BUY signal, so it would be best to enter long positions in bitcoin.

The relative strength index of 65 is indicating a BULLISH channel, and fresh buying is expected in the markets at any time.

We can see that the fears related to Omicron are vanishing, and new investors are coming back to the markets which also explains the increased market volatility today.

Technical Indicators:

Stoch (9,6): at 99.04 indicating an OVERBOUGHT level

Average directional change (14-day): at 50.66 indicating a BUY

Rate of price change: at 4.047 indicating a BUY

Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 553.80 indicating a BUY

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes Fresh Increase

EUR/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 1.1220 support zone. EUR/JPY is rising, but it is facing hurdles near 128.30 and 128.50.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro gained bearish momentum below 1.1350 and 1.1300.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1280 on the hourly chart.
• EUR/JPY is attempting a recovery wave above the 128.00 resistance level.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 127.85 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a major decline after it struggled to clear the 1.1350 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1300 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even traded below the 1.1250 support and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 1.1227 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.1260 level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

The pair even spiked above the 1.1285 resistance level. There was a clear move above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.1280 on the hourly chart.

It is now facing resistance near the 1.1300 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1357 swing high to 1.1227 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.1315 level.

It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1357 swing high to 1.1227 low. The main resistance is forming near the 1.1320 and 1.1335 levels. A clear break above the 1.1335 resistance could push EUR/USD towards 1.1400.

On the downside, the 1.1250 level is a major support. Any more losses might lead EUR/USD towards the 1.1200 support zone in the near term. The next major support sits near the 1.1150 level.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 09th DEC, 2021

ETHUSD: Ascending Channel Pattern Above $4,000

Ethereum continues its consolidation phase remaining above the $,4300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETHUSD is slowly preparing itself for its next move against the US dollar. The price continues to recover from its decline below the $4,000 level.

We can clearly see an ascending channel pattern above $4,000 which signifies that the price will continue to rise aiming upwards of $4,500 to $4,700.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of $4,374 and moving in a bullish ascending channel. The price of ETHUSD is about to break its classic resistance level of $4,418, its Fibonacci resistance level $4,403, and is now aiming towards the $4,500 handle in the US trading session.

All the major technical indicators are giving a NEUTRAL signal.

ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly and 200 hourly simple moving averages.

• Ethereum continues a bullish channel
• Short-term range appears to be bullish ETHUSD
• All the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal
• Average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility

Ether: Bullish Trend Towards $4,700 Confirmed

In today’s early Asian trading session today, ETHUSD continues to move in a consolidation channel after touching an intraday high of $4,479 and an intraday low of $4,345 in the European trading session.

Today’s relative strength index is NEUTRAL which signifies a potential bullish trend.

It is best to enter into long positions in Ethereum at the present market level of $4,380 with a target of $5,000 for the next month.

The average true range is indicating a lower market volatility as we can see a drop of 11.76 in the trading volume as compared to yesterday. This is because the market was in a consolidation phase and the buyers were waiting for a bullish pattern, which is clearly visible now.

ETH has gained +0.55% with a price change of +23.84$ in the past 24hrs, and has a trading volume of 18.912 billion USD.

Bitcoin vs Ethereum Gains in 2021

The gains observed in Ethereum have been outstanding as compared to bitcoin during the same period of time. This is because Ether’s underlying technology is far superior to bitcoin’s, which only serves as a mode of payment transfer and Investments.

The demand for Ethereum is currently stronger due to its leading role in the emerging industry of decentralized finance (DeFi), as well as non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The Week Ahead

Ether is printing above $4,300 today, and this week, we could see a levels of $4,500.

The medium to long-term outlook for Ether remains bullish with targets of above $5,000 the next month.

We have observed an $10 billion increase in Ethereum’s market cap which currently stands at $520 billion.

We have detected an MA50 crossover pattern which signifies a bullish trend in the coming days. A mullish crossover pattern is also seen in the MA20.

Technical Indicators:

Ultimate oscillator: at 49.448 indicating a NEUTRAL market

Moving averages convergence divergence (14-day): at 6.88 indicating a BUY

MA200 (exponential): at 4298.74 indicating a BUY

Rate of price change: at 0.403 indicating a BUY

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Gold Price Faces Hurdles While Crude Oil Price Is Recovering

Gold price is attempting a fresh increase above the $1,785 resistance zone. Crude oil price is recovering and could gain pace if there is a clear move above the $73.20 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price is showing a few bearish signs below the $1,800 zone against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,784 on the hourly chart of gold.
• Crude oil price started a recovery wave above the $70.00 and $72.00 levels.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $72.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a fresh decline from well above the $1,800 zone against the US Dollar. The price declined heavily, and it even broke the $1,780 support zone.

The price even settled below the $1,800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, there was a break below the $1,770 level. A low was formed near $1,761 on FXOpen before there was a recovery wave.

Gold price hourly chart

The price climbed above $1,780, but it stayed below $1,800. A high was formed near $1,792 and the price corrected lower. There was a break below the $1,785 level and the $1,780 support.

The price even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,761 swing low to $1,792 high. There was also a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,784 on the hourly chart of gold.

However, the bulls remained active near $1,774. The price is also stable above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,761 swing low to $1,792 high.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,780 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The main resistance is near the $1,785 level. A close above the $1,785 level could open the doors for a steady increase towards $1,800.

The next major resistance sits near the $1,820 level. On the downside, an initial support is near the $1,774 level.

The first major support is near the $1,760 level. A downside break below the $1,760 support zone may possibly spark a steady decline. In the stated case, the price could test the $1,740 support.

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GBP/USD Aims Recovery While EUR/GBP Is Sliding

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.3220 resistance. EUR/GBP is declining and is gaining pace below the 0.8550 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound is facing resistance near the 1.3280 and 1.3300 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from well above the 0.8580 support level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8540 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound declined heavily below the 1.3300 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base above the 1.3265 level and recently started an upside correction.

The pair recovered above the 1.3200 resistance level. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low (formed on FXOpen). Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The pair is now trading near the 1.3250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3265 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.3450 resistance and the 50 hourly SMA, the price could surpass 1.3280. The main resistance is near the 1.3300 zone.

Therefore, a proper break above the 1.3300 resistance could open the doors for a steady increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be 1.3350. If not, the pair could start a fresh decline below 1.3220. An immediate support is near the 1.3200 level.

The first key support is near the 1.3180 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3150 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3080 level.

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Will We See Santa Rally This December?

As this trading, pandemic-stricken year is nearing its end, the one thing left to emphasize is the stock market's rally. Not all market indices have rallied, for example, emerging markets: their indices performed poorer than developed markets by more than 20%.

The strongest rally happened in the United States. All major indices, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500, are nearing their all-time highs. Nothing could deter their advance. For most of the year, the tapering of asset purchases had been the main reason to expect a correction. The Fed did announce tapering, a small correction did happen, but only for bulls to step in and buy the dip again.

With the Fed's meeting looming large next week, is it possible for stocks to reach their new all-time highs? Also, is a Santa Rally possible even with the Fed turning hawkish?

What is a Santa Rally — and what are the chances to see one This December?

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Stocks tend to rally later in December, hence the Santa Rally name. A close look at the chart above shows that the chances for a Santa Rally are quite high. Most rallies occur after December 20, and if, say, the S&P 500 goes up more than 20% YTD, as is the case this year, it will outperform the average December return. The performance record dates back to 1950, so it is fair to say the likelihood is high for the stock's rally going on.

Furthermore, after this year’s negative November, December has delivered a positive return of 2.7% on average, with a probability of 86.3%. In other words, investors are betting on continuation of the economic recovery despite Omicron fears and the Fed's intentions to tighten the policy.

All in all, a Santa Rally is not just a possibility but a probability; 86.3% is enough to keep buyers in control.

FXOpen Blog

 

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Get Ready For December’s Most Important Trading Week

The most important trading week of the month has started, and traders are preparing for a sharp increase in volatility. No less than four central banks are expected to announce their monetary policy decisions, which will raise the currency market’s volatility.

Moreover, the moves may be exacerbated by lower liquidity levels typical for December. After all, December is known for most of the investment houses decreasing their market activity in light of the end-of-the-year holidays.

Inflation pressures central banks to tighten the monetary policy sooner than they would have wanted too. Last week, the US November inflation data showed that the prices of goods and services increased by 6.8% YoY, a rate not seen in the last 39 years. Therefore, the pressure on the Fed and other central banks increases to normalize their policies.

What to expect from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

The Fed is due to announce its decision on Wednesday. The risk is that it will have a more hawkish tone than the markets expect as higher inflation is threatening the Fed’s mandate of price stability.

A couple of weeks ago, the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, announced that it is time to stop describing inflation as “transitory”. The problem with higher inflation in the States is that it will be exported to other parts of the world due to global trade partnerships, and also to the fact that the US is the largest economy in the world.

Three central banks to announce policy decisions on Thursday

One day after the Fed’s decision, three central banks will announce their monetary policy stance: the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. Out of the three, the focus will be on the BOE and the ECB, because the Swiss National Bank is not expected to change its policy.

In the UK, while no rate hike is expected, the market participants will focus on the MPC asset purchase facility votes. Just like in the case of the Fed, the risk is that the BOE will be hawkish.

Finally, the ECB is facing a tough decision. The euro was weak all year, reflecting the bank’s dovishness. On the one hand, it does not plan to hike in 2022, in sharp contrast with the Fed. On the other hand, higher inflation forces its hand to taper asset purchases, a move that may be perceived as hawkish by financial markets.

This is what makes this trading week the most important in December. After Friday, volatility will decline as investors prepare for the end of the year festivities and holidays.

FXOpen Blog

 

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BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 14th DEC, 2021

BTCUSD: Head and Shoulders Pattern Below $50,000

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum on 12th Dec and declined after having touched a high of $50,701. We can observe a continuous fall since it touched its all-time high of $59,119 on 30th Nov.

This fall in BTCUSD can also be attributed to the broad-based December selling in crypto markets; this is a time when global investors seem to withdraw their profits and investments due to the upcoming Christmas and New Year holiday season.

In today’s European trading session, bitcoin is again back in the bearish channel, trading below the $50,000 handle.

We can clearly see a head-and-shoulders pattern below the $50,000 handle which signifies a fall in the price of Bitcoin and a continuation of the bearish downtrend.

At present, the price of bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase below the $48,000, and this is expected to continue in the US trading session.

Both the Stoch and StochRSI are indicating an OVERBOUGHT level, which means that in the immediate short-term, a decline in the price is expected.

Bitcoin is moving below its both 100 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

The average true range is indicating a lesser market volatility, which means that markets will be entering a consolidation phase soon.

• Bitcoin trend reversal is seen below $50,000
• Stoch is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level
• The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $46,895
• All the moving averages are giving a SELL signal at current market level of $47,146

Bitcoin: Bearish Momentum Below $50,000 Confirmed

BTCUSD is struggling to keep itself above the $50,000 mark, and we can see a mild bullish channel which suggests that a further decline can be expected.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that the price will fall below $45,000 soon.

In the European trading session, the price of BTCUSD is trading above its classic support level of $46,708 and Fibonacci support level of $46,594.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has gone DOWN by 3.74% with a price change of $1,830, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 33.547 billion. Compared to yesterday, there was a 41.25% increase in the trading volume. This increase happened thanks to the increased selling pressure, as well as liquidation of bitcoin holdings by investors.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin continues tumbling down from its Nov 30th all-time high of $59,119. A further decline will push it below the $45,000 handle.

The medium to long-term outlook remains BULLISH for bitcoin, with a target of $55,000. At present, the markets are giving a SELL signal, so it would be best to enter into short positions.

The relative strength index of 42 is indicating a bearish channel, and fresh selling is expected in the markets at any time. This is also due to the renewed fears related to the Omicron coronavirus variant, and many countries shutting down their international borders.

Technical Indicators:

Stoch (9,6): at 98.95 indicating an OVERBOUGHT level

Average directional change (14-day): at 42.60 indicating a SELL

Rate of price change: at -0.837 indicating a SELL

Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at -447.70 indicating a SELL

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The low Turkish Lira and the tourism opportunity

Turkey, a huge nation which is home to over 84 million people, is in an interesting position economically and politically and has been for some time.

The current economic outlook is one of surprising doom, and the focus over the past day by mainstream economists in Western countries has been on the anticipation of a rate cut which has caused the Lira to plunge to a new low, which is quite a significant market event given that it began this month at a very low value.

Yesterday was a particularly interesting session for the Lira, given that it was trading at 14.33 to the dollar at 1:25 p.m. in Istanbul, representing a slight recovery from the record low of 14.99 earlier in the day but still languishing at all time lows.

The mere thought that a commonly-traded currency which is not a major and could be considered to be one of the 'exotics' which is often traded against majors would plunge to a lower value than ever recorded could well prove to be a point of interest among traders and market participants.

Turkey may well be having a fiscal apocalypse in the eyes of its own central bank and policymakers and financial leaders globally, as the nation's own central bank began to intervene directly in the FX market on Monday this week by selling dollars to prop up the lira, but there are two sides to this situation which could lead to some degree of volatility.

Whilst President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a hardline stance against raising interest rates, Turkey's finance minister aligns with the idea as do many global economists which agree would actually aid the currency and go toward stemming the rampant inflation, which is now at approximately 20%.

Thus, the currency is in the doldrums but the wider economy of Turkey has perhaps some degree of potential, as it is one of the only countries within which tourism makes up a vast percentage of the national industry base which is welcoming tourists without many restrictions.

In 2018, Tourism directly accounted for 7.7% of total employment in Turkey, directly employing 2.2 million people and total income from tourism was 3.8% of GDP.

The nation's nominal per capita income - effectively the average salary per person - in Turkey is $9,300 which is considerably short of the national average per capita GDP in Western nations which are home to major currencies, which means that any movement in the all important tourist industry makes all the difference to the outlook within Turkey and therefore could directly affect the value of the Lira

Turkey's government has officially announced just three weeks ago that it will not be implementing any lockdowns going forward, and Turkey remains open to tourists.

Every year, over one million British tourists flock to Turkey's sun-soaked resorts and with those resorts very much open for business, the possibility of restrictions being implemented across the United Kingdom over the winter period and the low value of the Turkish lira meaning that British travelers get more bang for their buck, it could be that the Turkish economy may get a boost from those looking for an escape from further curtailment of freedoms to a warmer climate for a few weeks with a great exchange rate.

Many residents of Germany visit Turkey each year, some for vacation and others to visit their families and FX transactions between Germany and Turkey put the Euro and the Lira against each other very regularly.

Given Germany's current strict Covid rules, Turkey's low value Lira and open society with little restrictions may appeal.

Bearing in mind the internal issues of inflation and a beleaguered economy and the restrictions in Europe which may drive an open-for-business Turkish tourist industry forward, there may be some degree of volatility in the Lira when traded against the Euro or the Pound.

FXOpen Blog

 

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EUR/USD and USD/CHF: Dollar Could Gains Momentum

EUR/USD is struggling to gain momentum above the 1.1300 zone. USD/CHF is rising, and it might extend gains above the 0.9250 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro failed to gain strength and declined below 1.1300 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.1270 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF started a decent increase from the 0.9200 support zone.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9250 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro attempted an upside break above the 1.1325 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair failed to gain strength above 1.1325 and started a fresh decline.

There was a clear break below the 1.1300 and 1.1280 support levels. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.1270 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even broke the 1.1260 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

It traded as low as 1.1250 on FXOpen and is consolidating losses. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1272 level. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1326 swing high to 1.1250 low is also near 1.1272.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1285 zone. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1326 swing high to 1.1250 low. A clear upside break above the 1.1300 zone could open the doors for a steady move.

The next major resistance sits near the 1.1325 level. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1250 level. The next major support is near the 1.1220 level.

A downside break below the 1.1220 support could start another decline. The next major support sits near 1.1150.

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GBP/USD Aims Recovery While EUR/GBP Is Sliding

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 1.3220 resistance. EUR/GBP is declining and is gaining pace below the 0.8550 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound is facing resistance near the 1.3280 and 1.3300 levels.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from well above the 0.8580 support level.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8540 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound declined heavily below the 1.3300 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base above the 1.3265 level and recently started an upside correction.

The pair recovered above the 1.3200 resistance level. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low (formed on FXOpen). Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3240 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The pair is now trading near the 1.3250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3289 high to 1.3163 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3265 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.3450 resistance and the 50 hourly SMA, the price could surpass 1.3280. The main resistance is near the 1.3300 zone.

Therefore, a proper break above the 1.3300 resistance could open the doors for a steady increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be 1.3350. If not, the pair could start a fresh decline below 1.3220. An immediate support is near the 1.3200 level.

The first key support is near the 1.3180 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3150 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3080 level.

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Is the EURUSD heading for parity?

We have all been here before.

Despite the major currencies not being particularly volatile for many years, the differences between those on each side of the Atlantic is now becoming quite marked and has perhaps been the direction to watch for a considerable period of time.

Today, the EURUSD pair is trading at 1.13, which is the second-lowest point in over one year.

Just a month ago, at the beginning of this strong and continual period of downward movement for the 'cable' pair, analysts in senior positions in Wall Street and the City of London were beginning to consider the possibility that the EURUSD pair's value may make a return to that of 2014 when parity was almost achieved.

Given that many of the more industrially developed nations within the Eurozone have become subject to further restrictions at the hands of their respective governments, confidence has been affected as market participants take into account the potential effect slower production and less effective working practices in Austria, Germany and Holland could have on the wider Eurozone's stability.

In particular, Germany, which has a population of over 80 million and a traditional industry base which requires employees to attend their place of work as opposed to many large scale, high producing businesses in the Anglosphere which are often internet based or intrinsically linked to the big tech giants, therefore meaning working from pretty much anywhere would not stifle output.

Germany's largest employers are heavy manufacturing businesses such as Volkswagen, Bosch and Siemens, all of which require staff to travel to their factories. Restrictions being implemented by the national government would have a direct impact on this.

Whilst the US government is also talking about introducing restrictions, it has not brought in any Covid passport system yet, and has only done so for travel purposes whilst some of the European nations are doing so for access to everyday events and there is concern that this may extend to workplaces.

Looking at the EURUSD pair one month ago, it was trading at a healthy 1.22 which had been the case for quite a number of months, however as the year draws to a close we are looking at a clear downward line.

Just two weeks ago, the euro-Swiss franc pair fell below parity on November 1 for the first time in almost a year, echoing the same sentiment among traders.

At the beginning of this month, options traders were investing in options with longer expiry dates even before the euro dropped below 1.15, showing that a conservative approach is the current default.

Whether we will see parity or not is yet to be determined, however this is a really unusual downturn and has been on this trajectory for long enough to make it a real feature within the FX market.

FXOpen Blog

 

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 16th DEC, 2021

ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $3,600

Ethereum started this week on a mild bullish tone by touching a high of $4,169 after which the decline started pushing its prices below the $4,000 handle.

We saw Ethereum touching an intraday low of $3,654 yesterday, after which fresh buying in the market pushed its prices all the way above the $4000 mark. The recovery was also backed by the Three Arrows Capital hedge fund purchasing $56 million worth of Ether.

ETHUSD is slowly preparing itself for its next move against the US dollar.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above $3,600, which signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of $3,998 and moving in a bullish ascending channel. The price of ETHUSD is about to break its classic resistance level of $4,048, its Fibonacci resistance level of $4,035, and is now aiming towards the $4,200 handle in the US trading session.

All the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal.

ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly and below its 200 hourly simple moving averages.

• Ethereum trend reversal seen above $3,600
• Short-term range appears to be bullish for ETHUSD
• All the moving averages are giving a BUY signal
• Average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal towards $4,200 Confirmed

ETHUSD has recovered from its losses and is now moving in the consolidation phase below the $4,200 handle in the European trading session.

Stoch and average directional change are indicating a NEUTRAL market.

We can see a 34.50% increase in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, because the market was in a consolidation phase, and today, new buyers have entered as the bullish pattern is clearly visible.

ETH has gained +4.58% with a price change of +176.90$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 26.810 billion USD.

The Week Ahead

Ether is now waiting for its next move against the US dollar. We can see that the price continues to hold above the important psychological support level of $4,000.

The medium to long-term outlook for Ether remains bullish with targets of $4,500 to $5,000 in January 2022.

This is also a time when long-term investors tend to liquidate their holdings and withdraw the profits. Because of the coming end-of-year Christmas and New Year holidays, the liquidity will remain low and the advances limited.

We have detected an MA5 crossover pattern which signifies a bullish trend in the coming days. A bullish crossover pattern is also seen in the MA100.

Technical Indicators:

Ultimate oscillator: at 54.75 indicating a BUY

Moving averages convergence divergence (14-day): at 54.07 indicating a BUY

Commodity channel index (14days): at 34.51 indicating a NEUTRAL market

Rate of price change: at 8.161 indicating a BUY

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