Daily Dax

[Atilla]

BTW Whatever I say, write or mention I use NO FUNDAMENTAL INPUT in my trading

Not sure why you have to qualify that statement DaxDestroyer... You look and sound guilty just by denying it. :cheesy: I can see it written all over your face. :clap:

Ever since I've started on T2W people have torn in to me when ever I mention FA. My trading system is built on FA like the pyramids. It's the foundation. I base my trades on TA but being a student of economics FA is as the word spells still fundamental to what comes next predictions, estimation and guestimation - call it what you will...

The two go hand in hand like clap clap :clap:

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Not sure why you have to qualify that statement DaxDestroyer... You look and sound guilty just by denying it. :cheesy: I can see it written all over your face. :clap:

Ever since I've started on T2W people have torn in to me when ever I mention FA. My trading system is built on FA like the pyramids. It's the foundation. I base my trades on TA but being a student of economics FA is as the word spells still fundamental to what comes next predictions, estimation and guestimation - call it what you will...

The two go hand in hand like clap clap :clap:

I never lost more money than on fundamental "views" or on surefire tips.
Fundamentals can(!) but should not influence my size, but never my entry nor my exit.

Fundamentals need a totally different timeframe until they MIGHT play out.
And the tips I sometimes KNEW beforehand that company XY will be taken over, but still lost money on timing. HORRIBLE!

So I just decided for me, some years ago, that I stick to my signals and fade out everything else as HOT information or FUNDAMENTALS.

This works for me :clap::clap::clap:

 

[Atilla]

Fundamentals need a totally different timeframe until they MIGHT play out.

You are absolutely right here. It's all about time frames and you certainly can't use Fundamental Analysis to time entry and exits. For example a change in interest rates may take 6 months to fully feed into effect but on Technical Charts prices respond within seconds of the decision being made public.


U.S. Economy: Job Growth at Weakest Pace Since 2003 (Update3)

U.S. Stocks Fall After Job Growth Misses Forecast; Apple Drops


This would beg the question did the Technicals lead the economy or did the Fundamentals lead the economy?

For spread betters it's bound to be Technicals. But for people who look for value in shares, dividends and capital growth trading decisions are likely to be based on Fundamentals as to how they manage their assets.

Coming back to the DAX I have been wondering how related the European and US markets are. I would be fascinated to find out if the worst happens in the US with the collapse of the sub-prime crises - whether Europe along with India and China can maintain economic growth momentum or not? This question is likely to be really fumdamental to the movement of the indeces and various instruments I trade.

I'm currently following REIT property companies and questioning whether they have some more to fall or whether they are now very cheap. Same question is posed to the banking sector. With low prices, dividends are now looking very attractive. The outcome remains locked with the analysis of the impact of oil, inflation, rates and I suppose employment figures and how much money people have to spend.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

You are absolutely right here. It's all about time frames and you certainly can't use Fundamental Analysis to time entry and exits. For example a change in interest rates may take 6 months to fully feed into effect but on Technical Charts prices respond within seconds of the decision being made public.


U.S. Economy: Job Growth at Weakest Pace Since 2003 (Update3)

U.S. Stocks Fall After Job Growth Misses Forecast; Apple Drops


This would beg the question did the Technicals lead the economy or did the Fundamentals lead the economy?

For spread betters it's bound to be Technicals. But for people who look for value in shares, dividends and capital growth trading decisions are likely to be based on Fundamentals as to how they manage their assets.

Coming back to the DAX I have been wondering how related the European and US markets are. I would be fascinated to find out if the worst happens in the US with the collapse of the sub-prime crises - whether Europe along with India and China can maintain economic growth momentum or not? This question is likely to be really fumdamental to the movement of the indeces and various instruments I trade.

I'm currently following REIT property companies and questioning whether they have some more to fall or whether they are now very cheap. Same question is posed to the banking sector. With low prices, dividends are now looking very attractive. The outcome remains locked with the analysis of the impact of oil, inflation, rates and I suppose employment figures and how much money people have to spend.

Why care about fundamentals, when charts do guide you?
Use fundamentals as a compass, make a list of sectors where you think will be the action. WITHOUT THE BIAS!!! This is important. Than wait for your signals to follow the sector
As I'm getting old, I like to play it as simple as I can. And it works

 

[firewalker99]

Despite all the weakness...

... the German DAX still hasn't broken it's uptrend. Looks like it's just reverting back to the mean.

 

[jonnyy40]

I wish they (US) would just nationalise the mortgage debt.50 cents on the dollar as Cramer advises.That would give certainty.Labour were right to guarantee Northern Rock and it's the right thing for the US to do as well.At 50 cents in the dollar it's $250 billion worst case scenario.They're offering to send out $145 billion in cheques! This is about panic caused by uncertainty.I hope they do it and save all of us a LOT of money.

 

[daxdaytrader]

... the German DAX still hasn't broken it's uptrend. Looks like it's just reverting back to the mean.

The 6788 future price has broken and then been rejected on first retest.

 

[Atilla]

The 6788 future price has broken and then been rejected on first retest.

I have two scenarios for the DAX at the moment... (All prices CMC SB cash)

1. It will breach 6850 and head for the 7200+ regions

or

2. It will oscillate in a 6500 - 6800 range.


Based on my 4 hour charts we are looking like breaching 6800s at the mo. I'm long on the DAX with a mental SL around 6750s...

 

[Hook Shot]

Warning.......dax Inside Day...

Dax Still Not Made Counter Trend. Day Yet....in 890/900 Zone
High So Far ~851......... Now 826.......

 

[Atilla]

Dax Still Not Made Counter Trend. Day Yet....in 890/900 Zone
High So Far ~851......... Now 826.......

Thanks HS. I have 6927 as my target at the mo.

Drop below 6750-70 regions would raise concern and cause me to become bearish.

My cash prices showing 6812.

 

[Hook Shot]

100 pts in 1hr ?

the last time I said sthg like this .........it happened...Dow on Wed...

 

[RedDuke]

How did everyone trade last week?

I was on side lines. The speed, spread and book being so thin left me no choice.

Today seemed to be finally normal. Towards the end of the last week, I just relaized that Eurex instrument to day trade during such time could be Euro Stoxx50. It is dull duirng normal times, but last week the range was good, it had depth and spread was not insane.

Regards,
redduke

 

[RedDuke]

Hi Guys,

How often do you see DAX spread of 3 ticks? I see it at least 10 times during each hour, it is more often, but let's say 10 times. It stays like this for very short period, but it is there. I was recently told, that such spread should not exibit on DAX, but is is there on 3 different independant feeds that I have?

Thanks,
redduke

 

[Hook Shot]

Dunno about 3 tix....

Hi Guys,

How often do you see DAX spread of 3 ticks? I see it at least 10 times during each hour, it is more often, but let's say 10 times. It stays like this for very short period, but it is there. I was recently told, that such spread should not exibit on DAX, but is is there on 3 different independant feeds that I have?

Thanks,
redduke

Got a question for the Dax pros or stattos/anoraks/trainspotters generally...:cheesy:
Dax set for potentially 3 consecutive centuries.... or triple digit losses on close
It does not seem that common but would it be a tradeable* event from a probability point of view ??

*Put more simple is it worth betting that it won't happen (using usual check/balances) ?

Secondly, if we do get a 3 tons in a row does that make it unlikely that we'll get four ?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This type of stuff is probably unorthodox.... I accept ....but I heard of someone who regularly trades these types of odd events and thought I would start looking into it....

 

[grantx]

RedDuke,

I disagree with your assessment of the Stoxx future. If it is ever dull, it's because the DAX/overall market is dull.

The DAX is also known as the "Dancing DAX" for good reasons - incredible volatility at times, relative lack of liquidity/decent size on bid/offer. I've always believed that if someone can make a profit on the DAX, they'll do twice as good on the Stoxx as they move in step to a very high degree (95%?). However, the Stoxx has greater liquidity/depth/size, regularly trades over 1m - 1.5m contracts a day, and is less volatile.

The tick value is only half that of the DAX but I reckon you can trade twice your size of the DAX without a corresponding increase in risk. Do I trade it? No, there's still too much heat for me at the moment.

Hello HS,

You alright, mate?

Before betting against 3 or 4 centuries please read these short reports:

Wave of Write-Offs Rattles Market - WSJ.com

Hedge Funds' Fire Sales Send Muni-Bond Yields To Historic High Levels - WSJ.com

Also watch the video, “Oil Breaks New Ground” – worrying.

What is the probability of another 1 or 2 centuries? Pretty high, I reckon. We are in pretty dire times, the likes of which have not been seen since 1929(?). Bernanke said he expects some banks to fail. I would suggest the current background is worse than ’87.

Grant (Chief Strategist, Goldman Sachs).

 

[RedDuke]

Grant,

Just put dax and stoxx charts next to each other. Then tell me which one presents more opportunities. dax can move 10 ticks and stoxx would only move 1 or 2. If the whole market is dull and dax is slow, then stoxx would be at stand still. Yes, stoxx have more volume and much better depth, but I find dax more tradable intra day. Where with DAX you can win few ticks if market is choppy, stoxx will chop you to death.

Regards,
redduke

 

[grantx]

Red,

If you do well on the DAX, I can't argue against it.

"stoxx will chop you to death". I also agree with that.

There is a moral here. To trade successfully you have to know your market. Good trading.

Grant.

 

[Hook Shot]

I'm Fine.... just fine....

RedDuke,

I disagree with your assessment of the Stoxx future. If it is ever dull, it's because the DAX/overall market is dull.

The DAX is also known as the "Dancing DAX" for good reasons - incredible volatility at times, relative lack of liquidity/decent size on bid/offer. I've always believed that if someone can make a profit on the DAX, they'll do twice as good on the Stoxx as they move in step to a very high degree (95%?). However, the Stoxx has greater liquidity/depth/size, regularly trades over 1m - 1.5m contracts a day, and is less volatile.

The tick value is only half that of the DAX but I reckon you can trade twice your size of the DAX without a corresponding increase in risk. Do I trade it? No, there's still too much heat for me at the moment.

Hello HS,

You alright, mate?

Before betting against 3 or 4 centuries please read these short reports:

Wave of Write-Offs Rattles Market - WSJ.com

Hedge Funds' Fire Sales Send Muni-Bond Yields To Historic High Levels - WSJ.com

Also watch the video, “Oil Breaks New Ground” – worrying.

What is the probability of another 1 or 2 centuries? Pretty high, I reckon. We are in pretty dire times, the likes of which have not been seen since 1929(?). Bernanke said he expects some banks to fail. I would suggest the current background is worse than ’87.

Grant (Chief Strategist, Goldman Sachs).

I see you got a promo since the last time

Stats aside ...I just realised dax daily chart is awful ..failure of rally at ~ fib38 and and....

Thanks for links will click 'em later not had my soothing cup of tea yet......:cheesy:

Cheers Grant
Hs

 

[grantx]

HS,

Inidices opened weaker but not as much as I anticipated. However, once my T2W posts have been fully considered at the morning meetings of the big players (Morgan, Deutsche, GS, etc) we'll see massive sell-offs.

"not had my soothing cup of tea yet". It's 8:45a m. Get a grip, man. I'm on my fourth vodka,not neat (I'm not an alcoholic) - it's diluted (with gin).

Grant, hic.

 

[Hook Shot]

HS,

Inidices opened weaker but not as much as I anticipated. However, once my T2W posts have been fully considered at the morning meetings of the big players (Morgan, Deutsche, GS, etc) we'll see massive sell-offs.

"not had my soothing cup of tea yet". It's 8:45a m. Get a grip, man. I'm on my fourth vodka,not neat (I'm not an alcoholic) - it's diluted (with gin).

Grant, hic.

incidentally the Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs went to my school and he's a big Ya Nited fan.