Daily Dax

[foale]

Hi...been a while since I posted will try to do better...

I am going for a good up day today for the Dax. I have been long since late last night.
That sell off midday for the Dax caught me by suprise...although Dax does love to fall at that time..

Dow looking for 12300 test today and that should pull up the Dax cash to the 6730-50 area..
We are up 35 points since the 7am open and I am expecting more folow though as the S&P retests/ and maybe breaks the 1412 area later...

In short a solid up day with cautious pullbacks along the way.
I remain long as long as S&P stays above 1402

 

[foale]

I cant seem to shake off my bullish hat today...Might be an expensive mistake.
Got rid of 50% of my longs at the top in the 6690 area...added more on this pull back in the 55-60 area

I look at the stochastic a lot, but that can be misleading ofter very big rises or falls as it can remain pushing the price extremes for a while. I have Dax and FTSE at overbought.

 

[firewalker99]

I cant seem to shake off my bullish hat today...Might be an expensive mistake.
Got rid of 50% of my longs at the top in the 6690 area...added more on this pull back in the 55-60 area

I look at the stochastic a lot, but that can be misleading ofter very big rises or falls as it can remain pushing the price extremes for a while. I have Dax and FTSE at overbought.

Hi and welcome back !

Stocs can definitely get you on the wrong side of the track in trending days... things might look overbought/oversold for a long time before price decides to reverse. That's why I don't use indicators. But then again my winning percentage isn't as high as yours

I have yet to put on a trade today, haven't seen a high probability trade yet... so for now I'm sitting and watching (and enjoying the nice weather here

 

[foale]

well not looking to sensible so far...except for the 50% I got rid of at the highs.

I dont feel this is a repeat of the last 2 days though..
and those entering Dax cash just now under 6600 that lokl like a winner to me.

massive shake out...and good buying opportunity we will see... 6600-6604 imo held...on 2 tests. I took out a long down there...

 

[foale]

My trading style...

1) small positions relative to capital...
2) commit small amounts to build up a position.. with decent gaps inbetween
( my entries are not that good especially in volatile markets like this week
but the above does allow me to have wide stops )

basically try to trade the trend and use a modified stocastic among other things to hlep with that
and lastly ...

4) try to be relaxed about my trading

Action needed....run winners more...although have had a couple of +50 trades today.!

 

[firewalker99]

well not looking to sensible so far...except for the 50% I got rid of at the highs.

I dont feel this is a repeat of the last 2 days though..
and those entering Dax cash just now under 6600 that lokl like a winner to me.

massive shake out...and good buying opportunity we will see... 6600-6604 imo held...on 2 tests. I took out a long down there...

Looking at DOW we could have had a potential retest of the low yesterday, So I am looking for more upside today too... just have to find my entry point yet...

 

[foale]

Professionals using the fear built up over the last week to get long on the cheap.
as they unwind shorts built up several weeks in the 6900-7000 area and reverse back long

this is going to beocme more evident next week for the dax and particulalry the ftse which I expect to rally back to the 6250 area

 

[foale]

Fire I am really trying to hold on to my positions...to improve on my average winner.
having a few smaller ones means I can have some medium term..up to a week ones and trade a few intraday.

6700 on Dax cash by tomorrow? lol

 

[firewalker99]

My trading style...

1) small positions relative to capital...
2) commit small amounts to build up a position.. with decent gaps inbetween
( my entries are not that good especially in volatile markets like this week
but the above does allow me to have wide stops )

basically try to trade the trend and use a modified stocastic among other things to hlep with that
and lastly ...

4) try to be relaxed about my trading

Action needed....run winners more...although have had a couple of +50 trades today.!

Already a couple of +50's?
Friday's usually not my best trading days, so I'm playing it carefully as I had one of my best trading weeks ever. Not only in terms of absolute points, but also in terms of winning trades, I don't won't to overtrade today. Had a nice buy at 6615, exited that +20, but no +50's yet for me!

 

[foale]

This afternoon looking for a run up to 6640 area,,,feels we are the wrong side of 6600 down here

 

[catracho]

DAX needs a BIG rally to avoid "outside down week" !! Seems very unlikely, in which case I would expect more weakness next week..also DOW finished Feb on outside down month.....doesn't mean we won't get any rallies, but I will be v nimble on any longs....feels like after a rally that has lasted since june last year we may be in for a few weeks of correction (at least)..or more if we are are correcting the rally from 03. Short term support at 100 dma in DAX at 6550 ish?

 

[catracho]

charts

DAx and FTSE charts...

FTSE may be more attractive to buy in times of uncertainty (more defensive stocks in index)..

 

[firewalker99]

This afternoon looking for a run up to 6640 area,,,feels we are the wrong side of 6600 down here

this is crucial now... Looks like we need to hold this... otherwise I'm going to have to pull up some charts from long time ago to find support! :-0

45min to US open ... tension rising...

 

[foale]

Catracho interesting charts

and ready to be nimble here..
yes support dax at 6550 can see that clearly on my 240 min charts

If we are going to get a rally today I would expect it to come from this area.

Still shooting for 6640 later today on the basis that we are at the day low now just pre NY open

Longer correction needed yes agreed...but in the very short term I feel a mini rally is due...just enough so that we feel time to get back in....then perhaps a lower low in the weeks to come.

 

[firewalker99]

Catracho interesting charts

and ready to be nimble here..
yes support dax at 6550 can see that clearly on my 240 min charts

If we are going to get a rally today I would expect it to come from this area.

Still shooting for 6640 later today on the basis that we are at the day low now just pre NY open

Longer correction needed yes agreed...but in the very short term I feel a mini rally is due...just enough so that we feel time to get back in....then perhaps a lower low in the weeks to come.

It was very mini apparently... we couldn't push higher, definitely much weakness in the market still... expecting too see it open lower Monday or at least go lower next week...

hope you did well...

 

[firewalker99]

ouch

We just opened with a gap down of more than 100 points!
Although I was expecting a lower opening (looking at Friday's close on US) this kind of gap is bigger than I anticipated :|

 

[catracho]

looks like soon time to buy for the rally...

 

[firewalker99]

looks like soon time to buy for the rally...

the "rally" this morning seemed like a slightly predictable gap close... it could either try and close the gap or breakaway immediately... but with us closing in weakness again I'm thinking we might see more downside tomorrow...

 

[foale]

S&P 1400.. Dow 12250... and Fib 38.2 retrace of the big fall....
and the look of a double top on last nights action...

Where from here I wonder...back down or push through..

 

[catracho]

DAX should have resistance at 6685- 6700 level..stronger resistance at 6750-6770 level..see chart.