Current Global Economic State/Outlook

Can anyone think of ANY good news ???
Post Chump may be a new dawning ?
 
Good news for the Taliban. All captured ones are going to be freed so that they can have another go.
Maybe Somali pirates too.
yikes
 
cantagril said:
Ever the optimist - eh Nowls? :p

More seriously: I'd tend to agree that a storm's acomin' and we'd all do well to use our weather eye especially in view of the conflicting influences we've got going on atm. At some point the precarious balance will start to tip and the world will be dramatically over-supplied in tightened sphincters but as in most of these cases, predicting the end of the world is pretty pointless. You either get carted off to the funny farm or come in for abuse and ridicule whether you're right or wrong. IMNSHO if you believe that we are indeed for a Big One then it makes more sense to consider what the world will look like afterwards than fretting about exactly when it's going to hit...and act accordingly.

As Vaughan has just pointed out the USA (and Powell) are running out of road down which to kick the can and if they can't get their shit together to build a beautiful wall I very much doubt that a new stretch of can-kicking freeway is on the cards either.

And in closing: what about Covids 20 to 25? Currently incubating across Asia...and for that matter, the impending Geomagnetic storm? ...not for tomorrow, not for Christmas but coming to a planet near you, in your lifetime:)
Click to expand...

You know me :giggle:

To add further "fun" to what I said: we have all the baby boomers hitting retirement age in the next 7 years.
Anyone know how we are going to deal with that?
All their 401k investments will come out of the market, and I can only image how the market will react to that.
So even if we do deal with what's imminent, we wont be getting another record length bull market any time soon, because by 2027 at the latest we will be back in the midst of turmoil again.
...Maybe we can hold off on what I am saying is coming in months, and instead let it merge with the retirement crisis in 4-7 years.

I don't really think this is good, or bad... it all depends on your perspective.
I embrace the uncertainty... I look forward to the opportunities that this already is, and will bring.
I am also quite excited to see what happens.
Yes, I will be affected too - but not as much as most people as I don't have kids, mortgages, cars on finance, debt of any kind.
Bring it on I say!

Even an all out war with China, and the US... is that bad?
For some, yes... but for many more it will be good.
Even if it turns into a global war!

Our current economic way is at the end of it's life... maybe there's 5 more years left...10...20.. I don't know, but I know we are far closer to the end of the world as we know it than we are the the beginning.
I don't see this as a net bad thing either.
Yes a war will be painful... people will die... but a reset will come and a phoenix will rise from the ashes.
And then they too will get to the end of their rope, and we repeat.
History is littered with this trend :)

cantagril said:
IMNSHO if you believe that we are indeed for a Big One then it makes more sense to consider what the world will look like afterwards than fretting about exactly when it's going to hit...and act accordingly.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more!
 
Are any of you familiar with the theory from Strauss & Howe?
The concept of 4 "Turnings"...

If not, you might find it interesting.
Perhaps this current 4th turning will bring with it the move to the new monetary system??
The 4th Turning is due to end around 2025-2027, which is interesting as that also when the retiring boomers are the biggest burden on our system.

Add in the friction between the US and China... the accumulation of gold by Russia... Britain leaving the EU... the purchases of Oil from Iran in Yuan instead of USD (surely this will grow into other purchases in non-USD)... something is brewing :)
 
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Nowler said:
Add in the friction between the US and China... the accumulation of gold by Russia... Britain leaving the EU... the purchases of Oil from Iran in Yuan instead of USD (surely this will grow into other purchases in non-USD)... something is brewing :)
Click to expand...

One reflects .....

The last time somebody started selling their oil in "not american dollars", the result was 'Operation Shock & Awe'.

:sneaky:
 
MasterOfCoin said:
One reflects .....

The last time somebody started selling their oil in "not american dollars", the result was 'Operation Shock & Awe'.

:sneaky:
Click to expand...

China is not Iraq though...
It's one thing to pick on the small kid... but something else to pick on someone close to your size, who wields considerable power over you.

China has been buying a lot these last number of years. Whether it be foreign debt, companies, or property.
They are well versed in playing the long-game and already have the upper hand.
China produces a lot more than the US... and a lot of vital things too!

Brazil, Russia, India, China, & South Africa (BRICS) will be in a very strong position in the next 3 decades or so.

What goes around, comes around :)
 
About time the world's leaders stopped wasting money on weapons and spent it on cleaning up the planet etc.
 
Pat494 said:
About time the world's leaders stopped wasting money on weapons and spent it on cleaning up the planet etc.
Click to expand...

It will get worse before it gets better unfortunately.

We need to get this pending conflict out of our system (one big scrap to tire everyone out 💪 ).
Just like after WWII, people will be so tired of conflict... the loser will be too weak to continue on... only then will we decide to build (rebuild) a better future for our children (technically our grandchildren or great grandchildren - depending on how old you are). That will be the start of a new cycle of growth and prosperity.

You talk about cleaning up the world...
Would you welcome a world with increased Nuclear power?
 
Nowler said:
Click to expand...

Here is his scary prediction

U.S. stocks may slide 24% as recession looms: Raoul Pal

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may fall as much as 24 percent and the euro might tumble to $1.20 if the U.S. economy slows further and Europe's debt crisis widens, said Raoul Pal, the former GLG Partners Inc. fund manager currently writing the Global Macro Investor strategy sheet.
www.investmentnews.com www.investmentnews.com
from 2011!:)
 
Rufus_Leakey said:
The point is Raoul Pal's job has been selling gloom and doom for a long time now. So he might be a bit biased.
Click to expand...

Ah ya... I wouldn't be believing everything he says as gospel.
I don't believe anyone 100% of the time.
Not even myself :giggle:

He is super bullish on Bitcoin - I just don't see it...

Nonetheless, he has a point about a potential retirement crisis.
I don't know if I would put all my faith on him being exactly right... I don't think even he would.
But I do see a real risk of a crisis stemming from it.
 
Nowler said:
It will get worse before it gets better unfortunately.

We need to get this pending conflict out of our system (one big scrap to tire everyone out 💪 ).
Just like after WWII, people will be so tired of conflict... the loser will be too weak to continue on... only then will we decide to build (rebuild) a better future for our children (technically our grandchildren or great grandchildren - depending on how old you are). That will be the start of a new cycle of growth and prosperity.

You talk about cleaning up the world...
Would you welcome a world with increased Nuclear power?
Click to expand...
That statement really highlights just how stupid the human race is,
WW1 & 2 should have made it abundantly clear. But no, the message hasn't gotten through to some people.
 
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Pat494 said:
That statement really highlights just how stupid the human race is,
WW1 & 2 should have made it abundantly clear. But no, the message hasn't gotten through to some people.
Click to expand...
I guess the message was weaker and weaker as each subsequent generation was born. We are so far removed from it that it's a story, not a reality.

It's one thing to be told about it in school, or to hear stories from your grandparents. But a totally different story to shit your pants when the planes overhead are dropping bombs on you, or you witness the aftermath of a bullet ripping through your friend, or the conditions in a POW camp.

We shouldnt be so surprised though. History is full of wars to peace time, and peace time to wars.
 
Looking at the old news movies in black and white, one can see the devastation of war and the suffering it causes.
The problem with rebuilding cities in Europe just as they were makes some to question the fact that they were once reduced to rubble.
 
Pat494 said:
Looking at the old news movies in black and white, one can see the devastation of war and the suffering it causes.
The problem with rebuilding cities in Europe just as they were makes some to question the fact that they were once reduced to rubble.
Click to expand...

What year were you born mate?
Curious
 
Pat494 said:
Too long ago. My golden days were in the 1960s.
Click to expand...

I thought as much to be honest.
You remember certain times a lot clearer than the Gen X and us Millennial's do.

You had a nice bull market though!
Maybe a few hiccups along the way.
It'll be around 2030 before we get the beginning of a run of prosperity like that again.
 
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