Crude to $100 and above

[Hook Shot]

Amen

 

[andycan]

andy- does that mean you have buy stops on the Dec cct ? OR are you waiting to pounce ?
OR have you taken the plunge........?
HS

Apologies Hook Shot for not answering normally i get e-mail notification but not on this occassion

been trading NG on short side that appeared to be a more obvious trade. shorted around 6.5 and covered at 5.9 was looking at 5.7 at a strech but it shot past it.(always too early to get out oh well)
scalped today on the long side in and out nothing special.
the correction up appears too small would like more up into the 7.5 area
would like to consider this a test of the low but needs to prove it
as for Crude would really like to go long but nothing there telling me its ready as yet
still needs to drop hard another $20 give or take but a pop would be cool
this tends to be the problem with muliti year parabolics when they reverse they tend to extend and go lower than most people think one needs to be carefull because even a long is still a counter trend trade

 

[Hook Shot]

No worries andycan- I thought you'd retired or gone off to do some seminars!

Agree on crude - one day doesn't make a trend .... so once I b/e I put on stop so shouldn't be at risk.
Using trending criteria it will be wed/thur before we know whether we are on our way.......or yet another failed counter.

Another $20 ........... why not ? Perhaps geopolitics may just delay that washout a bit longer - who knows?

On gas, yep more obvious following mega rally off the Amaranth lows. Good Trade.
Gas now looks interesting long term ...........so I need a decent test of the spike lows to feel more confident of a new bull campaign. Shame nobody does a rolling spot gas ......... !!

Hook Shot

 

[andycan]

Hi Hook Shot,

retire i wished not if my kids have anything to do with it
seminars good heavens no i wouldn't know what to say maybe buy here and sell there.lol
been doing some analysis on NG long term looks like we do have a low (at least for the time being) the timing looks sweet from my perspective not done price work as yet but i suspect it will come together

 

[Hook Shot]

Oil tests $57 -again and rallies smartly - up 170 off low and missed the f***** trade

It was a no brainer that it probably would not stay on the year lows with inventories due Wed!

 

[andycan]

crude is looking for a low just the price action of late tells you
but there is no sense in bottom picking not with the energy markets
if you like trendlines there is plenty in crude to make a good judgement call
look at the weekly its a bull flag(inverted) though those setups can very easily impulse the opposite way

 

[Hook Shot]

You're right as usual oh Wise One - however ...................... short cable, long crude and long glaxo were my focus trades for the day ..................cable and gsk disappointed only leaving Nymex.

It's only a game right.......or there's always tomorrow ..I'm all out of cliches

Happy Trading ole Boy

 

[andycan]

yep its a funny ole game
incidentally what is cable im not up to scratch with FX terminology
btw long glaxo if it looks anything like the NY counterpart just watch out on that one if you are dead cert its going for a pop then cool but its a scalpers market until it breaks the range they will mess around with that one
crude is not obvious yet
i will include a chart of glaxo from US and you see what i mean (sorry i dont have UK data)
each move down is 0.786 of the previous move down almost perfect, now you see the top its extended down longer..... overbalanced in price that says to me that the honeymoon may well be over at least from the perspective of the bulls having control
i also would expect the down move to be more in line with the first or the second correction as a minimum
its not advice the moment i saw it, it just stood out at me

good luck

 

[Hook Shot]

You're havin' a larf - but in case not cable is £/$.
Gsk is precarious I agree .......as rallies are being slammed each time. I'm probably too early and there are better trades elsewhere - cheers
Agree on Crude too.

HS

 

[andycan]

i have never traded fx, only recently im paper trading Euro to get a 'feel'
as for GSK i dont have an attachment to it but until it breaks the range bound issue it would be a no go area
i will need to do some work on crude i correlate NG with the black stuff and the cycles are all over the place NG could have divergence of price between the contracted month and the continues so im on the sidelines
meaning dec could print new lows yet the continues could just be a retracement