I think it is pretty pointless debating the fundamentals of the oil market, there are many professionals out there who will know what is going on before anybody on these boards, including people like me who pays £££ for Bloomberg and Reuters and are constantly on IM to brokers. The main thing is to get into a trade one way or the other and know your way out of it through stop loss or profit target. Do not base your stop on % of account, rather find your stop by looking at a chart, in a sensible place such as below the weekly low or 3 day low or rsi/stoch trigger or whatever it is you use (I suggest on an hourly close to avoid getting spiked out, although need a backstop incase of total collapse too) and from that stop determine how many lots to buy so you risk the % you are prepared to. Once you have established this then just ride out the trade. You should have figured the entire thing out before entering the trade in the first place before you take the risk on. You must understand that you have this the wrong way around so in future I urge you to use what I advise above.
Each trade is just a probability and being long oil here is actually the higher probability option as the buying on dips demonstrates. The important thing now is to stay in the trade while the buyers still appear and to know when you are wrong. IMO the way to trade oil right now is to wait for the dips not the strength and buy into the sell-offs. As for % risk per trade, that is a personal choice but I would suggest you are honest with yourself about how you survive and continue as a trader should you have 10 losers in a row. If you are happy that this will not take you out for good psychologically or financially then you have the risk about right.
Good trading to all.
