Corn still searching for a price low enough to stimulate demand.
With recent support now resistance, (225 DEC/233 MAR) the trend is stil down, but note the BULLISH RSI DIVERGENCE and broadening formation - probably a reversal pattern in the long run.
March calls are very cheap now, with IV @ circa 20%.
Obviously something different is needed to turn this market around.
Demand? Frost? Post-harvest seasonal?
With recent support now resistance, (225 DEC/233 MAR) the trend is stil down, but note the BULLISH RSI DIVERGENCE and broadening formation - probably a reversal pattern in the long run.
March calls are very cheap now, with IV @ circa 20%.
Obviously something different is needed to turn this market around.
Demand? Frost? Post-harvest seasonal?
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Moneycat
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Under a purely technical point of view, I can;t agree with your statement: IMHO, what we see in the chart is the typical pattern when retacements occur.
If you draw a trendline based on relative lows of both future and indicator, during july and august, you see the retracement forming.
For the future you could rather see a support area.
Once the prevailing downtrend resumes both trendlines are broken.
The support trendline you draw is, IMHO, not correct, as there is no relative low to starrt from.
If you draw a trendline based on relative lows of both future and indicator, during july and august, you see the retracement forming.
For the future you could rather see a support area.
Once the prevailing downtrend resumes both trendlines are broken.
The support trendline you draw is, IMHO, not correct, as there is no relative low to starrt from.
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minx
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twalker said:
Well I tried (and failed) to get a short fill on the close last night and have been shorting wheat and corn intermittently over the last week or so. I think my time horizon is much shorter than most of you here, I'm in for 1-5 days a trade, so in the big picture of things we can both be right.....
Seasonals point to a bounce/rally from late September to mid-October.
From my March Corn seasonal chart (below), I see that the seasonal pattern has been followed pretty closely this year.
Yes, I am considering further scale buying of deferred calls here. Patience is required with this market though. HARVEST PRESSURE AND THE BIG-CROP MENTALITY,etc.
If we have printed a short-term low yesterday, we have lenghty bullish divergence on the March charts, (see attatched) which should eventually lead to a rally. Sentiment is very low, which usually accompanies major lows in price.
Fundamentally, demand is picking up , and could further accrue once harvest is past 50% complete. There's the old frost possibility again (weekend?), but the more time passes , the less impact this will have on the crop.
The OCTOBER S/D REPORT (around 12th?) forecasts are coming in at 11.2-11.5 bn bushels (production), a further increase.. However, last month's forecasts were for a drop, and they (USDA) ended up raising the production estimate (???)
A good value scale buy for the patient position trader who practises good risk management., IMO.
From my March Corn seasonal chart (below), I see that the seasonal pattern has been followed pretty closely this year.
Yes, I am considering further scale buying of deferred calls here. Patience is required with this market though. HARVEST PRESSURE AND THE BIG-CROP MENTALITY,etc.
If we have printed a short-term low yesterday, we have lenghty bullish divergence on the March charts, (see attatched) which should eventually lead to a rally. Sentiment is very low, which usually accompanies major lows in price.
Fundamentally, demand is picking up , and could further accrue once harvest is past 50% complete. There's the old frost possibility again (weekend?), but the more time passes , the less impact this will have on the crop.
The OCTOBER S/D REPORT (around 12th?) forecasts are coming in at 11.2-11.5 bn bushels (production), a further increase.. However, last month's forecasts were for a drop, and they (USDA) ended up raising the production estimate (???)
A good value scale buy for the patient position trader who practises good risk management., IMO.
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BTW, (a bit off-topic),
With reference to earlier posts, I've found a US broker's site that has OPTION PRICE CHARTS for most of the major markets.
There is a free 30-day trial available, prior to sign-up, for anyone interested. :
www.ccstrade.com
With reference to earlier posts, I've found a US broker's site that has OPTION PRICE CHARTS for most of the major markets.
There is a free 30-day trial available, prior to sign-up, for anyone interested. :
www.ccstrade.com
minx said:
Yesterday was the 1st up day after a 11 day decline!! I was stopped out of short at 210 from 231 (indeed a silly place to put the stop!). Would not be surprised to see C down below 200 even after a short term bounce to 220-230'sh. Downside momentum appears just too strong.
Still holding short W Z from 233 but no intention to let it retrace a lot. I want to see a swift decline otherwise will go flat.
Otherwise, waiting for the seasonal October lows in the Soybean complex. S X and SM Z appear to be tracing out 5th waves. Are these the bottoms? I'll wait for confirmation, I 've been catching tops and bottoms a little too often recently. Is BO Z making a double bottom? Possibly, Meal - Bean Oil spread seems to be setting up for another leg down.
Anybody, doing spreads? I have tip toed in the KW Z4 - KW K4 currently trading at -8cts, stop at -18cts, target at +20-30cts by Mid-November. Any thoughts? Perhaps, we should start a commodity spread Thread.
Anyone still watching this chart? Could the recent day of high volatility that took the price well below 200 be the last exhaustive attempt of the bears to take this market lower? There are also divergences on the MACD which would suggest the bear are running out of steam. I'm now long and hoping this market starts hitting some bear stops thereby accelerating the move up. . . . .
Moneycat - yr point well noted -you may well be proved right. I've bought March contracts to give the trade some breathing space. I agree there is crushing downside momentum but feel that any move up might bring out the bulls who will fill their boots at these prices. I want to be in at the start . . . . . logic that has trapped countless numbers in the past I know . . . what I can say is that I won't be shaken out lightly ( I hope their listening) and am in for the longer term move.
Shame this thread wasn't continued. Since last posting Corn moved from $2.40 to $4.10. Some people foresee cormn prices later this year of $7.00 Suspect they are farmers ;-)
Long a little CN7 at 382, tgt: ?, stop 414 and a bit more CN7/CZ7 at 22.0, tgt 50+, stop 25 (posting a bit late, sorry)
Long a little CN7 at 382, tgt: ?, stop 414 and a bit more CN7/CZ7 at 22.0, tgt 50+, stop 25 (posting a bit late, sorry)
