College Fund Challenge

[BeginnerJoe]

Taking the 1 pip profit after a long drawdown phase is just to keep the other noobs watching interested for the 100% win rate. Essentially these are break even measures and any further price move into the profit direction is not relevant.

The goal here is not really making 2 millions, rather to attract more investors, aka "friends and families", hence the requirement for the 100% win rate.

 

[tkbieber]

Taking the 1 pip profit after a long drawdown phase is just to keep the other noobs watching interested for the 100% win rate. Essentially these are break even measures and any further price move into the profit direction is not relevant.

The goal here is not really making 2 millions, rather to attract more investors, aka "friends and families", hence the requirement for the 100% win rate.

You always crack me up.

 

[tkbieber]

Don't pull the "it's not gambling, it's calculated risk" crap on me. I've heard it all before. Your strategy is when you lose you go bigger on your next trades so you make the losses back fast. Is that a false statement or accurate?

Out of interest....why are you taking so few pips? You had a trade where you made 30 pips and made just over $9 and then you have other trades where you take 2 pips and make $40. Are you just rapidly averaging positions as they go against you and then when you see a little bit of profit getting out?

I don't have to see anything as my system is automated. It keeps the emotions out of it. Sometimes I do take another trade in the same direction as the first automated trade, when it is in draw-down and can afford to risk a little more. Because it comes back, now 99% of the time, I'm pretty confident these little extra trades will be in profit while not risking much more than I already am.

Anyway, it will take about 2 months to get back on track. No shocker there.

Thanks for all the pointers and criticisms. I've had a lot now since the anticipated loss. I have decided to risk less per trade while still getting about 50% gain a month. It will make the equity curve look a little better for those who don't like the looks of it now. I'm not sure how this will effect my $2M goal but technically I'm up from $100 since May to now $411 so still not too shabby.

 

[Masquerade]

50%/month every month is a ridiculous target. See how many pros/people on the net you find doing that. It's going to end in tears at some point or another along the way. Another big loss will be around the corner at some point. But on the bright side if you lose 60% of a $1m account it's not so bad. You just have to hope that you can dodge the loss and know when to call it quits. If you can do 50%/month every month go get a job with a prop desk at an investment bank and they'll happily take you if there's consistency.

 

[tkbieber]

50%/month every month is a ridiculous target. See how many pros/people on the net you find doing that. It's going to end in tears at some point or another along the way. Another big loss will be around the corner at some point. But on the bright side if you lose 60% of a $1m account it's not so bad. You just have to hope that you can dodge the loss and know when to call it quits. If you can do 50%/month every month go get a job with a prop desk at an investment bank and they'll happily take you if there's consistency.

That's the goal for the average. I'd be happy with 30%. Some months are more than 50% but around that is good for me. Yes, that is the plan for every month.

 

[Hoggums]

It isn't gambling as much as calculated risk where the odds are with me. However, I will only increase the risk for just a few trades to regain the loss and then lower it again. And, while everything is considered "risky" the chance of having 2 bad trades in a row, well is next to nothing. Just my opinion, of course.

Oh dear.

This thread is a car crash waiting to happen.

It's cringe-worthy what you've said here. All of it is wrong you will learn it the hard way.

Thinking you can't get 2 bad trades in a row is hubris. Raising your stakes to make back a loss is stupidity.

 

[tkbieber]

Oh dear.

This thread is a car crash waiting to happen.

It's cringe-worthy what you've said here. All of it is wrong you will learn it the hard way.

Thinking you can't get 2 bad trades in a row is hubris. Raising your stakes to make back a loss is stupidity.

Thanks for the kind words.

 

[Hotch]

Thinking you can't get 2 bad trades in a row is hubris. Raising your stakes to make back a loss is stupidity.

It could be the case, that he's done detailed statistical analysis over a statistically significant sample, and found that it's more likely to have a win after a loss, there could even be logical reasons for this occurring. This would justify the approach somewhat, I somehow doubt this is the case though.

 

[mjj]

Just to change the topic...have any of you out there had any success with weekend gap trading?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

It's cringe-worthy what you've said here. All of it is wrong you will learn it the hard way.

Actually he already learned it in the past, and fully aware of the risks. This is why he's risking a relatively small amount of his own money. The things he's saying are for the benefit of the investors, I mean friends and families, who don't care if it's right or wrong as long as it sounds good.

 

[tkbieber]

It could be the case, that he's done detailed statistical analysis over a statistically significant sample, and found that it's more likely to have a win after a loss, there could even be logical reasons for this occurring. This would justify the approach somewhat, I somehow doubt this is the case though.

Actually, you are correct. That is why I will be doing it. It would be crazy not to run the tests and study the risk.

 

[tkbieber]

Actually he already learned it in the past, and fully aware of the risks. This is why he's risking a relatively small amount of his own money. The things he's saying are for the benefit of the investors, I mean friends and families, who don't care if it's right or wrong as long as it sounds good.

 

[tkbieber]

Ok, well that week is done.

$2M account is -40.4% so far for the month. I am anticipating it will take about two months to get to where it use to be and then it's back on track for the $2M. It may now take two years and two months to achieve the goal. Oh well.

To our group members, I may be adding a third system to the trading style and give equal weight on all three systems so that when there will be a loss with my system, it will only lose about 10-15% of the account and the other two systems should keep it well in profit each month. More info to come via email.

Have a great weekend!

 

[brettus]

Taking the 1 pip profit after a long drawdown phase is just to keep the other noobs watching interested for the 100% win rate. Essentially these are break even measures and any further price move into the profit direction is not relevant.

The goal here is not really making 2 millions, rather to attract more investors, aka "friends and families", hence the requirement for the 100% win rate.

I don't think that is the case. He just told too many people how well he was doing, and they wanted a piece of it. Problem is, they probably don't understand the risks, so won't be happy when they see the money going down and he hasn't told them they are now down, so now hes trying to risk more to get them back to even at least. The deposits you see are probably out of his own pocket.

 

[tkbieber]

I don't think that is the case. He just told too many people how well he was doing, and they wanted a piece of it. Problem is, they probably don't understand the risks, WRONG, THEY DO so won't be happy when they see the money going down and he hasn't told them they are now down, so now hes trying to risk more to get them back to even at least. WRONG AGAIN, IT'S JUST PART OF THE SYSTEM. IT TAKES A FEW WEEKS TO GET IT BACK. The deposits you see are probably out of his own pocket. AND FINALLY, COULD NOT BE MORE WRONG AGAIN BUT THAN AGAIN YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER SO GUESSING IS THE BEST YOU CAN DO.

 

[brettus]

I don't think that is the case. He just told too many people how well he was doing, and they wanted a piece of it. Problem is, they probably don't understand the risks, WRONG, THEY DO so won't be happy when they see the money going down and he hasn't told them they are now down, so now hes trying to risk more to get them back to even at least. WRONG AGAIN, IT'S JUST PART OF THE SYSTEM. IT TAKES A FEW WEEKS TO GET IT BACK. The deposits you see are probably out of his own pocket. AND FINALLY, COULD NOT BE MORE WRONG AGAIN BUT THAN AGAIN YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER SO GUESSING IS THE BEST YOU CAN DO.

I struck a nerve. Don't worry they will forgive you, and still be your family when it's all over.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I struck a nerve. Don't worry they will forgive you, and still be your family when it's all over.

I am always moved by a big happy family story.

 

[Hotch]

I do congratulate tkbieber on actually showing all info on his myfxbook account.

At the end of the day, you're down 25%, it's not encouraging, but when you're risking 60% of the account I guess it's only -5/12 R.

You seem more honest than most people trying the same thing, even though it doesn't look like it's going to work out atm.

 

[tkbieber]

I do congratulate tkbieber on actually showing all info on his myfxbook account.

At the end of the day, you're down 25%, it's not encouraging, but when you're risking 60% of the account I guess it's only -5/12 R.

You seem more honest than most people trying the same thing, even though it doesn't look like it's going to work out atm.

Thank you for that. From day one I say what I am risking and show my results here as well as my members who also have investor passwords.

What's amusing to me is so many here in this forum are shocked or say, "I told you so". I never said there would not be a loss so no shocker to me that one loss in 14 months happened. Now, to everyone's shock, I've changed some settings that will cause it to have even more losses in the future. "What?" you say. That's right, and from history, it is projected to earn even more over the course of a year even though there would have been five losses in the last 14 months. But, enough on that because I'll just get slammed by uninformed on-lookers.

To address brettus, not a nerve struck so much as I just need to clarify what is truth from your fictional guessing.

Again, all I can base my stagey from is History so if your crystal ball says I will have a string of losing trades than I bow to you, oh wise one. Otherwise, my system is based on detailed research.

Also, just to be clear, the $2M account uses my system only while my members fund is diversified what will be three systems in one so, for those who fear my system, in the future it will only take 1/3rd of the total risk.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

my members who also have investor passwords.

Don't you mean friends and families passwords ? You were warned by the mod about taking on investors.