Coffee

[bgold]

Coffee has recently attracted new interest. I hear on CNBC a tech analysit predicting coffee at $1.00 within 3 months!! What concerns me a little is the large spec positions which double in last week COT report.
Trend in weekly chart has turned clearly up. Daily chart appears to be a little obverbought.

So, are we going to see another downleg before the next bull leg will take-off?

As always keen to hear your views?

 

[bgold]

May Coffee - next bull leg?

Coffee is still very driven by funds piling in and bowing out. After failed top have they started liquidating again? I haven't seen volume figures yet.

The oter concern is that i have not yet seen evidence that calendar spreads are coming in.
That said I think case can be made that Coffee is ready make next advance (see chart).
Yesterdays' 1 day hammer signal points in the right direction. See how prices bounced of the previous channel resistance line. Resistance has become support?
Momentum indicators do not look very supportive yet. COT report shows Commercials still very short.

Any other insights?

 

[DaveT]

Good charting, Bgold.

I agree coffee could soon see a resumption of the uptrend.

Great potential for the next few months, but with Coffee you need to watch the volatility doesn't catch you out.

Breaking the 80-cents resistance would obviously open the door to higher prices - this level has represented previous MONTHLY support AND resistance on several occasions.

I've attached the Monthly for long-term perspective.

It has been stated elsewhere that Coffee has an 8-10 year cycle.

This tallies with the Monthly chart, as 91-94 saw a similar basing phase.....before rocketing on the 1994 weather scare/damage.
The Ultra-Slow Stochastic shows long-term momentum in a similar up-swing as well...

Strangely enough, I keep seeing/hearing 1994 as THE analagous year to 2004 in a number of markets....(Bonds...Interest Rates...Indices?)

Or are we at the foothills of a 1970's style SUPER-BULL, when all commodities reached dizzy heights as inflation spiralled out of control?

All academic, ofcourse. Can you trade it?, that's the point!

 

[bgold]

Bears still in charge

Well, what can I say. You win some and lose some. My KC K4 long at avg $76.88 looked only very briefly promising and was stopped out at $76. Narrow escape. I tightened stop after reading Fridays' COT showing a big rise in shorts by Commercials. And doji on 22nd. Was stopped out next day. Funds certainly were looking for the doors!

What's next? Well close near low is no good news. I expect follow thru. Bullish wave count still applicable. A fib .618 retracement of wave 1 would be in high 60's and near trend channel. Also happens to be a M-line from bulllish candle of 5 January. Will have to study other contracts to get a better feel.

 

[bgold]

Coffee in bull run!

After forming a nice bottom with bulls and bears battling it out for sevarl weeks, Coffee at last is rallying again. I am afraid I didn't see it coming.

I read that speculators have jumped on the bandwagon. Volumes are high. Today' high stalled at the previous high in January.
- Is this the real thing?
- What these stories about Origin selling in London? who is oRigin (am I naive?)
- Spreads do not seem to move much?
- Seasonally sep Coffee is weak see chart.

If, on the other hand if Jully coffee breaks 8340, there is no resistance until the low 8800's. Good move.

Any thoughts or opinions?

 

[oatman]

Origin......where it grows
Always used to be the Far East "waiting" for better prices. They love a gamble!
They keep putting off their price fixing because prices are "too low".
So, eventually, they get their prices fixed for them:cheesy:
That's usually near the lows.
Don't forget the frost season