DaveT said:
COFFEE UPTREND ACCELERATES
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Look at this Weekly log chart (nearest) - it clearly shows an acceleration of the bull market, forming a new , steeper channel (but not too steep @ 54*)
I would be looking to buy as close to the lower trendline (of this NEW channel) as possible.
Well, I am bullish but for now only long term and will stay at side lines. Reasoning:
1. Elliott Wave count points to a non-impulsive advance from the August lows, which I think may have completed wave B of an ABC flat correction since the May highs of Wave 1. Wave C of 2 would still end up below the August lows,
2. It seems that Commercials are still increasing their net short Open Interest position.
3. Various indicators on daily chart seem to point to neg divergence. RSI, MACD, Money Flow, and Osc have not yet matched the Sep highs.
4. Mondays' rally was supposedly trigered by triggereing buy-stops of hedgefunds(?)
Is this a fake break-out triggered by buy stops of Hedgefunds? All things considered I would not want to bet against the Insiders. I am suspicious of the funds. At this stage of the (perhaps) great commodities bullrun of 1st decade of 21st century, these funds are run by relatively inexperienced operators (often young and relative junior) who appear to be often running into traps set-up by the insiders. Although the charts may look familiar to former bond and equities traders, the make-up of the commodity futures markets is IMHO very different.
We'll soon enough what future will bring. I would still not be surprised to see the March contract below 7100 ( 8900 last). Still, I will assess situation on what I see developing on my screens and will start stalk KC H nearer to 8200/8400.
Dave, your analysis is stellar and much appreciated. many thanks for the very long term perspective.
