Clueless money & risk management

[BeginnerJoe]

I don't think you were supposed to close it Joe........

It was closed firstly because the coin toss was believed to be wrong. Secondly I saw no reason to go into a draw down when I didn't have to. My sense of direction on gbp was strong. So I had been long biased all the way. Now I have a very good chance to give this one a run for my money. Unlike some of my previous trades in other threads, this one like my 3 preceding trades will not be run into the ground. My strat has solidified sufficiently for it to be fully fledged as a runner and protector of profits.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Knocked out +55.

Will be looking to go large on this.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Threw 15 min's mm book out of the window and went 200x larger, risking more than 0.2%, 1% or 2% of account. This will be a winner of at least 5 pips. But I am looking for a runner.

 

[robster970]

It was closed firstly because the coin toss was believed to be wrong. Secondly I saw no reason to go into a draw down when I didn't have to. My sense of direction on gbp was strong. So I had been long biased all the way. Now I have a very good chance to give this one a run for my money. Unlike some of my previous trades in other threads, this one like my 3 preceding trades will not be run into the ground. My strat has solidified sufficiently for it to be fully fledged as a runner and protector of profits.

Hare was trying to demonstrate an underlying behavioural attribute of how price moves and to do that you needed to leave the position open. I know myself, LV, Shakone and Hare have all tried to point you towards this aspect of price movement which would form the basis of a method you could construct on top of it. However you are resistant to help that is offered unless it is accompanied by a statement so it is no surprise to me you closed out prematurely. Anyway, I hope your new strat works out for you.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Hare was trying to demonstrate an underlying behavioural attribute of how price moves and to do that you needed to leave the position open. I know myself, LV, Shakone and Hare have all tried to point you towards this aspect of price movement which would form the basis of a method you could construct on top of it. However you are resistant to help that is offered unless it is accompanied by a statement so it is no surprise to me you closed out prematurely. Anyway, I hope your new strat works out for you.

I know the characteristics of the hare's trades perfectly well even without a statement - usually it has high probability of 10 loosers in a row. This is why I chose my own way because it is better. My strat is working perfectly fine and it's given me a half descent runner today. While others in this thread were lamenting about 10 loosers in a row, I will lay claim to 5 winners in a row at least.

 

[robster970]

I know the characteristics of the hare's trades perfectly well even without a statement - usually it has high a probability of 10 loosers in a row.

Teh hare's method was NOT what we were trying to demonstrate to you. Do you understand this difference or not Joe?

 

[the hare]

I know the characteristics of the hare's trades perfectly well even without a statement - usually it has high probability of 10 loosers in a row. This is why I chose my own way because it is better. My strat is working perfectly fine and it's given me a half descent runner today. While others in this thread were lamenting about 10 loosers in a row, I will lay claim to 5 winners in a row at least.

I doubt you know very much at all, but thanks for the lulz.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Teh hare's method was NOT what we were trying to demonstrate to you. Do you understand this difference or not Joe?

When people want to demonstrate tennis, they go on the court and whack some balls about. When people want to demonstrate trading, they go to the broker and slap down some orders. You have done neither. So I am not sure what you are demonstrating. What you have demonstrated is behaving like a big girl who is too coy to express her true feelings. So what are you really trying to say ? Be out with it.

I doubt you know very much at all, but thanks for the lulz.

I know enough to play the casino.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I know the characteristics of the hare's trades perfectly well even without a statement - usually it has high probability of 10 loosers in a row. This is why I chose my own way because it is better. My strat is working perfectly fine and it's given me a half descent runner today. While others in this thread were lamenting about 10 loosers in a row, I will lay claim to 5 winners in a row at least.

My discipline wavered and ended up with 12 less pips than my strat guaranteed. Exited +40. My bias remains long, will look to re-enter.

Bad casino. They play me.

 

[robster970]

What you have demonstrated is behaving like a big girl who is too coy to express her true feelings. So what are you really trying to say ? Be out with it.

We were trying to show you something - refer back to your tennis analogy you half-witted fool.

Oh sorry, that's right, you started to watch and then decided to leave before the game had started......

 

[D70]

Has this thread gone completely off track?
I thought Hare was going to demonstrate a buy now, close later (at set time) strategy.
Instead it's turned into a BJ journo of lulz.

 

[the hare]

a bit like enclosures in the zoo for wild animals ....now whether you have barred cages or open enclosures is perhaps the only real point for debate

Billiant

 

[robster970]

a bit like enclosures in the zoo for wild animals ....now whether you have barred cages or open enclosures is perhaps the only real point for debate

Indeed - funny how the animals need protecting from the humans........

 

[Shakone]

some members have reached a point where they need to be provided their own forum and locked in there....

a bit like enclosures in the zoo for wild animals ....now whether you have barred cages or open enclosures is perhaps the only real point for debate

A long time ago, some good contributors left the site. They left in part because they were forced to deal with threads being disrupted with nonsense and even personal attacks, and some of them were not happy with how all of this was moderated. Some expressed this unhappiness and were banned. Although some of them seem to pop back from time to time, they choose not to contribute anything, except lulz of course.

Fast forward some years, and the situation is not so different. Threads which have pockets of good discussion become swamped with nonsense or side discussion that's not relevant. D70 asks about the thread going off track and why it has descended to BJ lulz, and rather than try to get the thread back on topic you respond with some sort of attack on those members who grew tired of this happening to thread after thread. What else would you expect members who actually want a thread to have at least a chance of surviving to do? The alternative to me was to just not bother and find another forum that interested me.

You're not responsible for this situation Samirs, nor is Beginner Joe. But I don't really see the purpose of your post. To have a little dig at others? Whatever floats your boat.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

you have completely misunderstood my post...but that's fine nothing new

Calm Down - YouTube

 

[brettus]

Barjon it is to do with conditional probability.

The probability that you lose ten on the trot is: 0.5 to the power 10

The probability that you lose the tenth conditional on the fact that you've already lost 9 is 0.5


Consider 3 coin tosses. There are 8 possibilities from those 3 coin tosses. Probability of 3 losses in a row is one of those, so it has probability 1/8

Conditional on the fact we've lost the first two, there are now only 2 possibilities (no longer 8), and of those 2, one has another loss, and the other has a win. So 3 losses in a row conditional on 2 already occuring is 1/2

1/1024. So you should hit 10 losses in a row every thousand trades roughly. Didn't Derren Brown do this with a coin flip? Took him like 9 hours or something. Why did you go into conditional probability. Did you just fancy giving a maths lesson? You felt the need to prove that those maths lessons were worthwhile. I think you just confused people even more. Each coin toin toss is not dependant on the last, meaning that just because you tossed a heads last time, it doesn't increase your chances of heads on the next coin toss.Just to confuse even more.

To be fair to the banned guy, 15 trades at 2% non compounding is 30%. Not everyone compounds. Actually I think the majority don't. Not every trade anyway. I know if you lose 2% on a 100k account you have 98k and 2% of that isn't 2k. Don't even bother bringing that up.

 

[Shakone]

1/1024. So you should hit 10 losses in a row every thousand trades roughly. Didn't Derren Brown do this with a coin flip? Took him like 9 hours or something. Why did you go into conditional probability. Did you just fancy giving a maths lesson? You felt the need to prove that those maths lessons were worthwhile. I think you just confused people even more. Each coin toin toss is not dependant on the last, meaning that just because you tossed a heads last time, it doesn't increase your chances of heads on the next coin toss.Just to confuse even more.

To be fair to the banned guy, 15 trades at 2% non compounding is 30%. Not everyone compounds. Actually I think the majority don't. Not every trade anyway. I know if you lose 2% on a 100k account you have 98k and 2% of that isn't 2k. Don't even bother bringing that up.

Yep. Well someone asked about the gambler's fallacy, which is a probability question, not a trading one, so I explained. My explanation may have confused more than it helped, but you can't win 'em all.

Edit: Thanks for letting me know Brettus. Mod's please delete my explanation to Barjon, it's confusing some, and is not needed in the thread anyway.

 

[Babyblush]

Well i really do not agree with that same old saying for 2% risk per trade because this holds good for traders with larger funds but what about small time traders who have few hundreds of dollars.

 

[D70]

Well i really do not agree with that same old saying for 2% risk per trade because this holds good for traders with larger funds but what about small time traders who have few hundreds of dollars.

You've got it the wrong way.
"Big funds" risk 0.2%, retail traders risk 2%.