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DOW/FX - 28th Sep
DOW - Stop moved to 10050 to lock in 210pts. OBV now touching MA, not broken through on yesterday's volume. SStoch continues south.
FX - just one position taken yesterday (EUR) for +25.
22:05 update: DOW exit for +210. OBV(30) has ticked up today off the MA. No longer term shorts until this breaks down. Scrappy day on FX: 5 trades netting +21 (EUR quite whippy today), from a narrowish range.
DOW - Stop moved to 10050 to lock in 210pts. OBV now touching MA, not broken through on yesterday's volume. SStoch continues south.
FX - just one position taken yesterday (EUR) for +25.
22:05 update: DOW exit for +210. OBV(30) has ticked up today off the MA. No longer term shorts until this breaks down. Scrappy day on FX: 5 trades netting +21 (EUR quite whippy today), from a narrowish range.
DOW/FX -29th Sep
Kept an eye on the DOW today whilst managing a few FX trades throughout the day. At close, OBV continues to increase and SStoch(39,1,1) has flicked up just beneath 50. 10150 is a reasonable estimation of the next turning point south, but econ stats out tomorrow and friday could give further impetus to this leg up. An interesting end to the wk ahead....
2 EUR trades today for -38
1 Cable for +125
Kept an eye on the DOW today whilst managing a few FX trades throughout the day. At close, OBV continues to increase and SStoch(39,1,1) has flicked up just beneath 50. 10150 is a reasonable estimation of the next turning point south, but econ stats out tomorrow and friday could give further impetus to this leg up. An interesting end to the wk ahead....
2 EUR trades today for -38
1 Cable for +125
1st Oct
12:10 update: 1 long (EUR) stopped out for -33; 1 short (Cable) for +156.
Looking to short DOW either today/monday - have a decent turning point on the 14th October pencilled in - down from here until then perhaps and then a run up to the election??...caveat to this though is that SStoch has now crossed back up above 50 and although OBV flicked down yesterday, it still hasn't broken through its' 30MA.
16:45 update: just noticed that yesterday had downside volume (DOW daily chart), unrivalled since 14th July - 10 days later we were down another 250 odd points....would be nice to see the pattern repeat (still flat DOW though ;-))
12:10 update: 1 long (EUR) stopped out for -33; 1 short (Cable) for +156.
Looking to short DOW either today/monday - have a decent turning point on the 14th October pencilled in - down from here until then perhaps and then a run up to the election??...caveat to this though is that SStoch has now crossed back up above 50 and although OBV flicked down yesterday, it still hasn't broken through its' 30MA.
16:45 update: just noticed that yesterday had downside volume (DOW daily chart), unrivalled since 14th July - 10 days later we were down another 250 odd points....would be nice to see the pattern repeat (still flat DOW though ;-))
4th Oct
Closed a EUR long from Friday for -32 last night and so far today, just closed a EUR short +73 and Cable long +57.
DOW - still flat. The OBV(30) suggested caution when it didn't breakdown through its' MA. Since then price has bounced back and many are eyeing new highs on the run up to the election. Content to sit on hands for a while.
Closed a EUR long from Friday for -32 last night and so far today, just closed a EUR short +73 and Cable long +57.
DOW - still flat. The OBV(30) suggested caution when it didn't breakdown through its' MA. Since then price has bounced back and many are eyeing new highs on the run up to the election. Content to sit on hands for a while.
6th Oct
Took just +11 from the EUR long yesterday. Work kept me away from the chart. Still flat DOW.
Taking a break from the journal entries now. The next goal (now that I'm using a method that suits my psych) is to become consistently profitable on a weekly basis over a 12 month period, with a view to making a full-time transition at that point.
Took just +11 from the EUR long yesterday. Work kept me away from the chart. Still flat DOW.
Taking a break from the journal entries now. The next goal (now that I'm using a method that suits my psych) is to become consistently profitable on a weekly basis over a 12 month period, with a view to making a full-time transition at that point.
20 months later....
Still not trading fulltime but getting closer....keener than ever to succeed, just need to be patient and build the knowledge and confidence, as well as the initial ante!
Anyway, i'll be using the journal for a while as I forward test a variation of the Hans123 breakout method on GBP/USD. Bare bones: 5am-8am range + 15 + spread (using Oanda); SL:70, TP:150; Move to BE +40; Exit positions and pending orders at 16:00GMT.
Today's orders:
BUY stop: 8474; SL: 8404; TP: 8624; BElevel: 8514
SELL stop: 8389; SL: 8462; TP:8236; BElevel: 8346
Today's result posted at 16:00GMT. Currently short and not looking too healthy ;-)
16:00 Exited short @ 8422 for -31
From tomorrow i'll be testing USD/CAD against the same method. Today's result would've been -55
"plan the trade, trade the plan", "learn to love your losses" and all that...;-)
The discretionary trading is moving away from indicators, took a long time but simple trend line breaks and basic money mngt off a 5min chart are more than adequate.
Still not trading fulltime but getting closer....keener than ever to succeed, just need to be patient and build the knowledge and confidence, as well as the initial ante!
Anyway, i'll be using the journal for a while as I forward test a variation of the Hans123 breakout method on GBP/USD. Bare bones: 5am-8am range + 15 + spread (using Oanda); SL:70, TP:150; Move to BE +40; Exit positions and pending orders at 16:00GMT.
Today's orders:
BUY stop: 8474; SL: 8404; TP: 8624; BElevel: 8514
SELL stop: 8389; SL: 8462; TP:8236; BElevel: 8346
Today's result posted at 16:00GMT. Currently short and not looking too healthy ;-)
16:00 Exited short @ 8422 for -31
From tomorrow i'll be testing USD/CAD against the same method. Today's result would've been -55
"plan the trade, trade the plan", "learn to love your losses" and all that...;-)
The discretionary trading is moving away from indicators, took a long time but simple trend line breaks and basic money mngt off a 5min chart are more than adequate.
FX Orders - 21st June
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8487; SL: 8417; TP: 8637; BElevel: 8527
SELL stop: 8434; SL: 8507; TP:8281; BElevel: 8391
Currently short and in +ve territory......
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1179; SL: 1109; TP: 1329; BElevel: 1219
SELL stop: 1129; SL: 1203; TP:0975; BElevel: 1085
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: -5 (sell stop hit didn't get to BElevel)
USD/CAD: +60 (sell stop hit; BElevel hit)
Total: +55
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8487; SL: 8417; TP: 8637; BElevel: 8527
SELL stop: 8434; SL: 8507; TP:8281; BElevel: 8391
Currently short and in +ve territory......
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1179; SL: 1109; TP: 1329; BElevel: 1219
SELL stop: 1129; SL: 1203; TP:0975; BElevel: 1085
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: -5 (sell stop hit didn't get to BElevel)
USD/CAD: +60 (sell stop hit; BElevel hit)
Total: +55
FX Orders - 22nd June
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8487; SL: 8417; TP: 8637; BElevel: 8527
SELL stop: 8427; SL: 8500; TP:8274; BElevel: 8384
Currently short and beyond BElevel...update at 16:00gmt.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1114; SL: 1044; TP: 1264; BElevel: 1154
SELL stop: 1056; SL: 1130; TP:0902; BElevel: 1012
Currently long and just in +ve territory...update at 16:00gmt.
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: +150 (TP@8274)
USD/CAD: +62 (@1176)
Total: +212
June total: +425
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.75
Win% = 50%
MaxDD = -281
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8487; SL: 8417; TP: 8637; BElevel: 8527
SELL stop: 8427; SL: 8500; TP:8274; BElevel: 8384
Currently short and beyond BElevel...update at 16:00gmt.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1114; SL: 1044; TP: 1264; BElevel: 1154
SELL stop: 1056; SL: 1130; TP:0902; BElevel: 1012
Currently long and just in +ve territory...update at 16:00gmt.
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: +150 (TP@8274)
USD/CAD: +62 (@1176)
Total: +212
June total: +425
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.75
Win% = 50%
MaxDD = -281
FX Orders - 23rd June
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8330; SL: 8260; TP: 8480; BElevel: 8370
SELL stop: 8266; SL: 8339; TP:8113; BElevel: 8223
Currently short...update at 16:00gmt.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1221; SL: 1151; TP: 1371; BElevel: 1261
SELL stop: 1165; SL: 1239; TP: 1011; BElevel: 1121
Not in yet...update at 16:00gmt.
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: +72 (came within a few pips of profit target and retraced)
USD/CAD: BE (decent spike long, but quickly snatched back later in the session)
Total: +72
June total: +497
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.62
Win% = 50%
MaxDD = -281
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8330; SL: 8260; TP: 8480; BElevel: 8370
SELL stop: 8266; SL: 8339; TP:8113; BElevel: 8223
Currently short...update at 16:00gmt.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1221; SL: 1151; TP: 1371; BElevel: 1261
SELL stop: 1165; SL: 1239; TP: 1011; BElevel: 1121
Not in yet...update at 16:00gmt.
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: +72 (came within a few pips of profit target and retraced)
USD/CAD: BE (decent spike long, but quickly snatched back later in the session)
Total: +72
June total: +497
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.62
Win% = 50%
MaxDD = -281
FX Orders - 26th June
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8217; SL: 8147; TP: 8367; BElevel: 8257
SELL stop: 8158; SL: 8231; TP: 8005; BElevel: 8115
Currently long...update at 16:00gmt.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1246; SL: 1176; TP: 1396; BElevel: 1276
SELL stop: 1197; SL: 1271; TP: 1043; BElevel: 1163
Currently short...update at 16:00gmt.
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: -37
USD/CAD: -36
Total: -73
June total: +424
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.63
Win% = 48%
MaxDD = -281
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8217; SL: 8147; TP: 8367; BElevel: 8257
SELL stop: 8158; SL: 8231; TP: 8005; BElevel: 8115
Currently long...update at 16:00gmt.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1246; SL: 1176; TP: 1396; BElevel: 1276
SELL stop: 1197; SL: 1271; TP: 1043; BElevel: 1163
Currently short...update at 16:00gmt.
16:00GMT results:
GBP/USD: -37
USD/CAD: -36
Total: -73
June total: +424
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.63
Win% = 48%
MaxDD = -281
FX Orders - 27th June
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8274; SL: 8204; TP: 8424; BElevel: 8314
SELL stop: 8208; SL: 8281; TP: 8055; BElevel: 8165
Update at 16:00BST.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1234; SL: 1164; TP: 1384; BElevel: 1264
SELL stop: 1181; SL: 1255; TP: 1027; BElevel: 1147
Update at 16:00BST.
16:00BST results:
GBP/USD: -31
USD/CAD: -23
Total: -54
June total: +370
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.69
Win% = 45%
MaxDD = -281
GBP/USD:
BUY stop: 8274; SL: 8204; TP: 8424; BElevel: 8314
SELL stop: 8208; SL: 8281; TP: 8055; BElevel: 8165
Update at 16:00BST.
USD/CAD:
BUY stop: 1234; SL: 1164; TP: 1384; BElevel: 1264
SELL stop: 1181; SL: 1255; TP: 1027; BElevel: 1147
Update at 16:00BST.
16:00BST results:
GBP/USD: -31
USD/CAD: -23
Total: -54
June total: +370
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.69
Win% = 45%
MaxDD = -281
Backtesting boob...
It appears the backtesting was flawed on CAD and June's performance to date is unusual. The last 2 year's results aren't so promising. Doesn't affect cable, so from tomorrow i'll continue the breakout method test just using cable and will also begin the forward testing of a Volatility Expansion breakout method on cable and EUR/USD.
It appears the backtesting was flawed on CAD and June's performance to date is unusual. The last 2 year's results aren't so promising. Doesn't affect cable, so from tomorrow i'll continue the breakout method test just using cable and will also begin the forward testing of a Volatility Expansion breakout method on cable and EUR/USD.
FX Orders - 28th June
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO):
BUY stop: 8251; SL: 8181; TP: 8401; BElevel: 8291
SELL stop: 8184; SL: 8257; TP: 8031; BElevel: 8141
GBP/USD (daily VE BO):
BUY stop: 8261; SL: 8166; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
SELL stop: 8147; SL: 8243; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
Decided to test just cable for now on the VE method. I may combine both methods in the end as volatility expansion may be a useful filter during ranging periods.
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO): Sell stop hit and closed @16:00 for +19
GBP/USD (daily VE BO): Sell stop hit; close tomorrow @ 8am if not stopped out.
Todays total: +19
Amended stats with CAD trades removed:
June total: +18
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.53
Win% = 36%
MaxDD = -210
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO):
BUY stop: 8251; SL: 8181; TP: 8401; BElevel: 8291
SELL stop: 8184; SL: 8257; TP: 8031; BElevel: 8141
GBP/USD (daily VE BO):
BUY stop: 8261; SL: 8166; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
SELL stop: 8147; SL: 8243; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
Decided to test just cable for now on the VE method. I may combine both methods in the end as volatility expansion may be a useful filter during ranging periods.
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO): Sell stop hit and closed @16:00 for +19
GBP/USD (daily VE BO): Sell stop hit; close tomorrow @ 8am if not stopped out.
Todays total: +19
Amended stats with CAD trades removed:
June total: +18
June stats
AvWin:AvLoss = 1.53
Win% = 36%
MaxDD = -210
FX Orders - 29th June
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO):
BUY stop: 8202; SL: 8132; TP: 8352; BElevel: 8242
SELL stop: 8145; SL: 8218; TP: 7992; BElevel: 8102
11:55 - currently short
GBP/USD (daily VE BO):
BUY stop: 8226; SL: 8125; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
SELL stop: 8104; SL: 8207; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO): Sell stop hit and closed @16:00 for +19
GBP/USD (daily VE BO): Yesterday's trade closed @08:00 for +15
Today's total: +34
June total: +52
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO):
BUY stop: 8202; SL: 8132; TP: 8352; BElevel: 8242
SELL stop: 8145; SL: 8218; TP: 7992; BElevel: 8102
11:55 - currently short
GBP/USD (daily VE BO):
BUY stop: 8226; SL: 8125; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
SELL stop: 8104; SL: 8207; TP: tomorrow 8am or +150
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO): Sell stop hit and closed @16:00 for +19
GBP/USD (daily VE BO): Yesterday's trade closed @08:00 for +15
Today's total: +34
June total: +52
FX Orders - 30th June
...now beginning to test the merging of the 5-8BO with Volatility Expansion calcs.
GBP/USD VEBO:
BUY stop: 8365; SL: 8301; TP: +150 or 16:00 today
SELL stop: 8287; SL: 8352; TP: +150 or 16:00 today
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO): Buy stop hit and closed @ 16:00 for +122
GBP/USD (daily VE BO): Yesterday's trade closed @08:00 for -103
Todays total: +19
June total: +71
...now beginning to test the merging of the 5-8BO with Volatility Expansion calcs.
GBP/USD VEBO:
BUY stop: 8365; SL: 8301; TP: +150 or 16:00 today
SELL stop: 8287; SL: 8352; TP: +150 or 16:00 today
GBP/USD (5am-8am BO): Buy stop hit and closed @ 16:00 for +122
GBP/USD (daily VE BO): Yesterday's trade closed @08:00 for -103
Todays total: +19
June total: +71
FX Orders - 4th July
BUY stop: 8468
SL: 8438
TP: 8618
Close: 8438
Result: -30
SELL stop: 8430
SL: 8464
TP: 8277
Close: 8464
Result: -34
Todays total: -64
Julys total: -70
3-Day Swing & Pivot Points
3 Day High: 8499
3 Day Low: 8261
3 Day Pivot 8380 50%
8408 61.8%
8352 38.2%
Prev High: 8487
Prev Low: 8384
BUY stop: 8468
SL: 8438
TP: 8618
Close: 8438
Result: -30
SELL stop: 8430
SL: 8464
TP: 8277
Close: 8464
Result: -34
Todays total: -64
Julys total: -70
3-Day Swing & Pivot Points
3 Day High: 8499
3 Day Low: 8261
3 Day Pivot 8380 50%
8408 61.8%
8352 38.2%
Prev High: 8487
Prev Low: 8384
