Choice Odds Fixed Odds and Binaries

HAhahah, yeah, they may just all run one big book together in collusion.

I used to think that the restaurants in Chinatown were all so homogeneous that there was one big kitchen round the back and they all shared it... maybe it is like that. ;-)

Joking apart, I can't possibly see why they would be hard to handle. I don't get it.

NQR
 
Well Bins are a zero sum game. If someone arbs 1pt (daft to do that ihmo) then the bin firms loses that money. If the losing punters give up and the winners/arbers stay, the bin firm can't make money. I think what really happens is that IG don't care about arbs that much as they are confident in their quotes and are big compared to othe bins firms. On average, if an arb in available the firm with the "wrong" quote will lose and I take that to mean the smaller firm (not IG). IG can ride out the arbers, the small firms can't that's why most of them are on manual fills.
 
If binary bets are a zero sum game then why do you use the name: Bintrader?

A zero sum game with the level of volatility that the binary markets offer has, over time, a negative expected return for the party who is less financially well endowed (the punter).

There are many punters who make a lot from ChoiceOdds, Binary bet and BetsForTraders. You often sound very negative about the vendors of binary bets but without them we wouldn't have binary betting, this thread on the forum or your name 'Bintrader'.

It is a simple proposition... you say where the market will be and when. If you are right you win, if you are wrong, you lose. It is all down to YOU.
 
NotQuiteRandom said:
A zero sum game with the level of volatility that the binary markets offer has, over time, a negative expected return for the party who is less financially well endowed (the punter).
Click to expand...

I don't think this is correct? E.g. say a binary provider has just 1 punter who by chance happens to place bets at precisely fair value 100% of the time, then neither party has a negative expected return as it's a zero sum game.

Most punters lose because they are taking prices at worse price than fair value due to the spread, but it doesn't mean that the expected return is negative for *everyone*.
 
Jules101,

It may not be immediately intuitive but it is correct. I posted the 'why' of it on another thread on spreadbetting somewhere on the forum so apologies to anyone who read it for the repetition.

In short we can model the probability of a punter losing to a broker as a function of each one's available capital.

The assumptions are as follows: 1) Fair value pricing - this does not hold in reality but 'fair value' is essentially incalculable over very short time periods as implied vol calcs are so problematic. 2) That the punter keeps trading - this does hold most traders keep participating because they are optimistic people. If they were not they wouldn't speculate.

So...

If one trader's capital is c and another's (the broker) is C, then the probability that the one who began with c runs his account down to zero in a fair game played to conclusion is C/(c+C) and therefore that the probability that he will ruin his opponent is c/(C+c).

Ergo...

A zero sum game with the level of volatility that the binary markets offer has, over time, a negative expected return for the party who is less financially well endowed (the punter).

NQR
 
Yeah that's fair enough, but most experienced traders will only be staking a small proportion of their capital - if they are only risking a fixed % of their capital each time then in theory it would be impossible to run your account down to zero. In practice it's not possible because of the minimum bet sizes, but I don't think your calculations are appropriate for experienced traders who know better than to risk most of their bank on one trade ;)
 
jules101 said:
Yeah that's fair enough, but most experienced traders will only be staking a small proportion of their capital - if they are only risking a fixed % of their capital each time then in theory it would be impossible to run your account down to zero. In practice it's not possible because of the minimum bet sizes, but I don't think your calculations are appropriate for experienced traders who know better than to risk most of their bank on one trade ;)
Click to expand...

jules101, how are you getting at ChoiceOdds compared to Lad? I will be joining this new -potential profitable- adventure soon.
 
nutter is right, It is a joke firm that will NEVER alow you to male any decent money with them. certainly not as much as ladbrokes and they don't let you get away with much these days.
 
NotQuiteRandom said:
HAhahah, yeah, they may just all run one big book together in collusion.

I used to think that the restaurants in Chinatown were all so homogeneous that there was one big kitchen round the back and they all shared it... maybe it is like that. ;-)

Joking apart, I can't possibly see why they would be hard to handle. I don't get it.

NQR
Click to expand...

You'd know i guess seeing as you work for Bets For Traders.
 
The reason, as explained by the head trader at Finspread to me many moons ago, why the various firms don't like arbers is because they're taking money out of the industry as a whole.
 
Hi jules, why Betfair will be the place to trade the financial betting markets? can elaborate? Thanks.
 
ladbrokes said:
Hi jules, why Betfair will be the place to trade the financial betting markets? can elaborate? Thanks.
Click to expand...

Once there is at least 1 permanent market maker on all their markets (me or otherwise), the volumes should soar. Betfair is a p2p betting exchange so you are trading live markets versus other people, so bets can be placed instantly on the exchange (no delays whilst bets are accepted/rejected like with the bookmakers), and your account won't get limited/closed if you win a lot.
 
Thanks for the reply. I am looking something like Ladbrokes or ChoiceOdds on the fixed odds betting. Hopefully Betfair has it.
 
ladbrokes said:
Thanks for the reply. I am looking something like Ladbrokes or ChoiceOdds on the fixed odds betting. Hopefully Betfair has it.
Click to expand...

Betfair currently has a fairly limited range of financial markets - the only ones with decent liquidity are the FTSE Hourly/Midday/Daily and Dow Jones Midday(6PM)/Daily, I will be pushing Betfair to add more markets once I become a permanent MM.
 
A Market Maker who posts prices continuously and permanently. There have been several MMers who have come and gone over the past few years on Betfair.
 
Thanks for the reply jules. Can anyone tells me about how profitable are you in ChoiceOdds (CO), and what is the maximum figure you are getting from CO? How much are you winning daily and whether CO allows punters to remain profitable after several months? If so, what is the figure are we talking about in order to get a "no more bet" from CO? I had my experience with Ladbrokes, so would like to know more about CO and any possibilities to win 5 or 6-figure kind of money there.

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
 
If you're thinking of doing the five minutes bets, then forget it......as it takes normally 20 to 30 seconds to process. One time I placed a bet with 1min and 5 secs left... it went to processing..(in the meantime the bet price fluctuated)...then with 3 secs left...(after it was obvious I wouldn't win)..they accepted the bet.

As a tester the other day, the usdjpy was about 10 points down on the hourly, the binary price was 2.0 to finish up....I placed a full 2 pound on it ( Wooooo )....it went to processing...then was rejected saying "bet price no longer available"....but the price hadn't budged, it was still 2.0, so I tried again...and again....and again....still the same. I was just about to do a screen recording and post it to choice odds, when the usdjpy rose, I tried to buy at 11....but again "bet price no longer available".... so I gave up.

I contacted them about the processing time and their response was that it was at my end, my internet connection wasn't fast enough......8MB not fast enough:rolleyes:

Another thing, which is irrelevant if you can't even get a bet on is that they limit your stake, eg. if you have £500 in your account you can only bet £5 per point, whereas Binary bet you can bet any £ per point as long you have the margin.

They obviously don't do much business as when the few times I have had bets accepted, probablies in the space of half an hour....I check the order no's and they have only taken about 5-8 bets in that period.

Nice platform, Nice range of markets, but are a joke as a company. Anyone reading this thinking it might be sour grapes of my behalf, it's not true as my account is up...but it could have been up a hell of a lot more.

Anyway rant over, Binary bet is the best as you get instant acceptance, even if the price changes 1 second after you've clicked...you still get the price you clicked on.....I just wish they would do more of a variety of bets like Choice Odds.

Hope this helps

Blu-Ray
 
My worst fear is being answered. I just hope more companies would come out with the fixed and floating odds betting. I'm better at it than in betting binaries. sigh.

Thanks guys for the input. I will ride a while on CO then share my inevitable short stint there.
 
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