China's FTSE 100 swing trades

[D70]

Long STAN

Have you come back with an appropriate money management structure?

As an aside. I was looking at some forex factory "systems" the other day. They go on for 1000 pages but the system owner never talks about money management - ever. I find that bewildering and immediately off putting.

 

[China Diapers]

Have you come back with an appropriate money management structure?

As an aside. I was looking at some forex factory "systems" the other day. They go on for 1000 pages but the system owner never talks about money management - ever. I find that bewildering and immediately off putting.

No not really, at the moment my money management is risk 1% of account per trade. Been meaning to get round to reading the the Ryan Jones book I have on pdf (if anybody has a physical copy I am willing to make you an offer)

I agree money management is key

 

[China Diapers]

Good news first.

1. Yours truly has won his second gold in the S&P weekly competition with what appeared at first to be an outrageous forecast.

2. I closed the HSBA position for a profit factor of 2:1.

Bad news.

I closed the HSBA position before it's target and therefore did not adhere to my trading plan. To be fair to myself my exit strategy is not very advanced and consists of either my target or stop loss being hit. I don't often have time to check my charts at work but today I happened to be watching as HSBA neared it's target. It got very close then started to retreat at the same time as all the major indices and I thought 2:1 was a good place to get out and who knows this may be as high as it goes, and maybe it was the right thing to do. But now what? I can't just go closing positions every time it takes my fancy, how will I ever know when is the right place to close, I could end up closing loads of good trades prematurely for a reduced R:R. Know what I mean?

Currently long STAN.

Long BSY and CNA for Monday. BSY is slightly under my minimum 1.5 R:R.

 

[ZaBu]

2. I closed the HSBA position for a profit factor of 2:1.

Bad news.

I closed the HSBA position before it's target and therefore did not adhere to my trading plan. To be fair to myself my exit strategy is not very advanced and consists of either my target or stop loss being hit. I don't often have time to check my charts at work but today I happened to be watching as HSBA neared it's target. It got very close then started to retreat at the same time as all the major indices and I thought 2:1 was a good place to get out and who knows this may be as high as it goes, and maybe it was the right thing to do. But now what? I can't just go closing positions every time it takes my fancy, how will I ever know when is the right place to close, I could end up closing loads of good trades prematurely for a reduced R:R. Know what I mean?

I know exactly what you mean!

My trading approach is very similar to the method that you're using. I'm still very much a beginner and figuring a lot of things out as I go. What I decided to do is take 50% off if a trade gets to a R/R of 1:1, try to get the stop to break-even and let the other 50% run. I trail the stop manually and try to position it just below logical support if the trade progresses. I've had some success catching some bigger moves with this. As I can't always monitor trades during the day I often set a price text alert for around the 1:1 mark to give me a heads-up that price is in the ballpark.

I was also in HSBA myself today but was distracted by the day job. By the time I exited the first 50% price was much closer to 2:1, which was nice 🙂 The other half is still live for me so we'll see how it pans out.

Anyway, perhaps something for you to think about. I'm sure there are plenty of other methods but personally I just want a simple approach and a clear guideline to follow once I am in the trade.

Enjoying your thread - keep up the good work.

 

[China Diapers]

I know exactly what you mean!

My trading approach is very similar to the method that you're using. I'm still very much a beginner and figuring a lot of things out as I go.

Mate I have been a member of this site since Jan 2009 and I still don't know what the **** I am doing!

What I decided to do is take 50% off if a trade gets to a R/R of 1:1, try to get the stop to break-even and let the other 50% run. I trail the stop manually and try to position it just below logical support if the trade progresses. I've had some success catching some bigger moves with this. As I can't always monitor trades during the day I often set a price text alert for around the 1:1 mark to give me a heads-up that price is in the ballpark.

That is interesting. I have used this method when I was experimenting with longer term trend following methods but as far as swing trading goes I don't think it's for me but I will bare it in mind.

I was also in HSBA myself today but was distracted by the day job. By the time I exited the first 50% price was much closer to 2:1, which was nice 🙂 The other half is still live for me so we'll see how it pans out.

Glad to see I had company here, to be honest when my order got triggered I was thinking man this probably wasn't a good idea but can't argue with 2:1 🙂

Anyway, perhaps something for you to think about. I'm sure there are plenty of other methods but personally I just want a simple approach and a clear guideline to follow once I am in the trade.

Enjoying your thread - keep up the good work.

Glad you are enjoying it your comments are welcome any time

 

[ZaBu]

That is interesting. I have used this method when I was experimenting with longer term trend following methods but as far as swing trading goes I don't think it's for me but I will bare it in mind.

In fairness one of my rules is that the weekly time frame also needs to be trending and not overbought. I just figure that if I go to the trouble of finding a trend and getting in on a retrace that at least some of these trends could go on for a while longer. I'd like a piece of that. I like to keep things simple but maybe my inexperience means I'm missing something with the way I've got things set up. Time will reveal all.

 

[barjon]

Good news first.

1. Yours truly has won his second gold in the S&P weekly competition with what appeared at first to be an outrageous forecast.

2. I closed the HSBA position for a profit factor of 2:1.

Bad news.

I closed the HSBA position before it's target and therefore did not adhere to my trading plan. To be fair to myself my exit strategy is not very advanced and consists of either my target or stop loss being hit. I don't often have time to check my charts at work but today I happened to be watching as HSBA neared it's target. It got very close then started to retreat at the same time as all the major indices and I thought 2:1 was a good place to get out and who knows this may be as high as it goes, and maybe it was the right thing to do. But now what? I can't just go closing positions every time it takes my fancy, how will I ever know when is the right place to close, I could end up closing loads of good trades prematurely for a reduced R:R. Know what I mean?

Currently long STAN.

Long BSY and CNA for Monday. BSY is slightly under my minimum 1.5 R:R.

not a bad move - it's Friday, you'll rest easy over the weekend and anything more than your 1.5 is a bonus anyway.

 

[China Diapers]

In fairness one of my rules is that the weekly time frame also needs to be trending and not overbought. I just figure that if I go to the trouble of finding a trend and getting in on a retrace that at least some of these trends could go on for a while longer. I'd like a piece of that. I like to keep things simple but maybe my inexperience means I'm missing something with the way I've got things set up. Time will reveal all.

Strikes me as a sound approach, I check the weeklies too.

 

[China Diapers]

not a bad move - it's Friday, you'll rest easy over the weekend and anything more than your 1.5 is a bonus anyway.

Thanks John that makes me feel better 🙂

 

[China Diapers]

I have to try my best to avoid the comments, but this still cracks me up every time I watch it.

Spitting Image-Never met a nice South African - YouTube

 

[China Diapers]

Stop! Hammer time!

Speaking of the weeklies, pulled bsy order as just noticed the mother of all reversals going down on the higher TF.

 

[China Diapers]

A few talking points from today's action on the London Stock Exchange:

1. Resilient market we're experiencing, the bears must be pissed.

2. CNA formed an inside bar today so my order was not triggered. I know best practice is probably cancel the order or leave the entry where it currently is, but I am not going to do either of those things. I am sure it is obvious from this journal, and everything else I have written on these boards over the years, that I have no idea what I'm doing, but I have a strong suspicion that there is value (that's gambler talk) to be had in taking trades off of inside bars and narrow range bars (Toby Crabel's book influenced my thinking on this), and there is a good chance I am wrong but I am keeping a separate win rate of my inside bar trades (among other things) so the truth will be set free in due course, fingers crossed I don't destroy my account my first.

Looking at STAN where I am currently long, there is a good example of the phenomena of "a period of contraction followed by a period of expansion". Hasn't been quite as dramatic a move for the current STAN trade but I am sure there is a very good reason for that = )

Toby, if you are reading this, sorry for giving your secrets away buddy I know how much you hate it and I know the hedge fund industry is struggling at the moment.

3. Long CPI for tomorrow (Crabel would approve of this too)

 

[China Diapers]

Another up day in FTSE land.

CPI: So much for the Toby Crabel Effect, got stopped out within 2 hours of the open. Looking at it with the benefit of hindsight it seems suicidal using such a tight stop, but if I didn't take these kinds of trades I would not have taken ITRK which has been my most profitable trade so far. For now I think I will just have to keep taking them until I have a big enough sample to say NR's yay or NR's nay. It's going to require a lot of patience for somebody as impatient as myself. Or maybe I should be paper trading NR's if they are so risky. Then how do I define an NR? NR7, NR10, NR20? I don't know the answer right now.

CNA: Now long and in the red. Disappointing considering the FTSE made gains today (albeit modest by the time of closing). Am I the only person who regularly feels like every stock is going up except the ones I am in?

STAN: Gave up the gains from yesterday, and more. I am thinking if momentum on a trade reverses this way maybe it would be wise to move the stop to BE (if in profit) or close the trade (if in a loss), how often do these moves recover I wonder. I would imagine I will be stopped out tomorrow.

So in summary, losses, disappointment, confusion and indecision all round.

When I resumed posting on this thread I gave some reasons why I will walk away from trading if I am not seeing progress in six months (lets call it end of September 2013), something I didn't mention is when I have open positions they are constantly on my mind, so it's not just the 30 mins I spend checking my charts, it seeps into every part of my life and I often find my thoughts wandering to what the FTSE is doing or whether I should be trading inside bars or not, rather than focusing on a particular task I happen to be engaged in, so it's way more that 30 minutes a day it's taking (almost typed "sapping"....paging Dr. Freud) from me. Do I suffer from some sort of mental disorder?

 

[China Diapers]

Longs for tomorrow:

GKN
LAND
TATE

 

[D70]

Another up day in FTSE land.

CPI: So much for the Toby Crabel Effect, got stopped out within 2 hours of the open. Looking at it with the benefit of hindsight it seems suicidal using such a tight stop, but if I didn't take these kinds of trades I would not have taken ITRK which has been my most profitable trade so far. For now I think I will just have to keep taking them until I have a big enough sample to say NR's yay or NR's nay. It's going to require a lot of patience for somebody as impatient as myself. Or maybe I should be paper trading NR's if they are so risky. Then how do I define an NR? NR7, NR10, NR20? I don't know the answer right now.

CNA: Now long and in the red. Disappointing considering the FTSE made gains today (albeit modest by the time of closing). Am I the only person who regularly feels like every stock is going up except the ones I am in?

STAN: Gave up the gains from yesterday, and more. I am thinking if momentum on a trade reverses this way maybe it would be wise to move the stop to BE (if in profit) or close the trade (if in a loss), how often do these moves recover I wonder. I would imagine I will be stopped out tomorrow.

So in summary, losses, disappointment, confusion and indecision all round.

When I resumed posting on this thread I gave some reasons why I will walk away from trading if I am not seeing progress in six months (lets call it end of September 2013), something I didn't mention is when I have open positions they are constantly on my mind, so it's not just the 30 mins I spend checking my charts, it seeps into every part of my life and I often find my thoughts wandering to what the FTSE is doing or whether I should be trading inside bars or not, rather than focusing on a particular task I happen to be engaged in, so it's way more that 30 minutes a day it's taking (almost typed "sapping"....paging Dr. Freud) from me. Do I suffer from some sort of mental disorder?

China,

If I may make a few comments.

You seem particularly disappointed about individual trades losing. You must look at trades from a sample of 10 or 100. The idea of trading is to have a loaded coin. You will win some and lose some, that you cant change. What you must be prepared to go through is the string of losses. Most trading strategies and approaches run on probabilities and over the long term have a very high chance of 20 losses in a row. This is easy to see if you code your strategy in it's basic form.
To add. If I gave you a loaded coin, you'd be very happy right? You'd know over time that you'd win against your mates if betting on the flip but you wouldnt be able to predict the next flip would you? Trading is the same. 1 loser is just 1 loser out of the next 10,000 trades you are going to place.

Regarding the movement of stops and so forth when a trade starts to reverse. You will only ever achieve modest gains if you do this because all markets have an ebb and flow. The trick to nailing some extended winners is to be able to sit through the first retrace. Think Jesse Livermore style. After which you can trail stops behind each retrace (or swing) for example to catch those extended trends moves.

2pence.

Trading should be 100% unemotional.

I dont know your individual strategy but you go for a lot of longs? Ever like the idea of a long / short book? Much healthier to be slightly more market neutral.

 

[China Diapers]

Hi D70 you certainly may make a few comments, make as many comments as you want they are always appreciated.

I don't want to sound like I have it all figured out and come across arrogant or stubborn, I am fully aware of my short comings but I don't agree with your comments 100%

I know my last post seemed a bit emotional but I wouldn't describe myself as a very emotional person, most people who know me would likely describe me as quite robotic in nature. I think yesterday I got frustrated that I am trading what should be a simple method and am making it very complicated for myself somehow, add to that the ****ty day at work I had and hey presto. It' s not to do with any given outcome, I look at my stats over the last few months and I consistently have more losers than winners in what is a run-away bull market, if there is any time I should be making money it's right now, it's not going to get any easier.

I feel that this comes down to the mechanics of the method, I am taking trades which I have been warned are higher risk but take them anyway because I think I know better and want to prove it to myself. Then I don't take trades which meet my criteria because I have some strange bias for shallower swings and avoid anything with a bit of depth because I think it will never reach it's target.

I hear you on the loaded coin, Trading in the Zone is one of my favourite books, but I remember Douglas saying before you read this book you need a method with an edge, I think I am still working out what my edge is and until I do no amount of money management and psychology is going to make me profitable, I need to have a loaded coin in the first place.

I do keep an eye on my successful trades once I close them to see how they would have done if I trailed them and the results are not convincing but it might be an idea for the future.

I am only going for longs, it's a bull market, Livermore had a few things to say on that subject 🙂. I am open to taking counter-trend trades once I figure out a few of the other loose-ends with my method.

Thanks again for the reply.

 

[D70]

"I feel that this comes down to the mechanics of the method, I am taking trades which I have been warned are higher risk but take them anyway because I think I know better and want to prove it to myself. Then I don't take trades which meet my criteria because I have some strange bias for shallower swings and avoid anything with a bit of depth because I think it will never reach it's target. "

If the above is the case. You have no method. All you have is a random sample generator.

 

[China Diapers]

Hahahahaha, lol, literally. That's probably true so will have to sort that out first and foremost.

 

[China Diapers]

I am no longer taking trades off inside bars with immediate effect.

STAN stopped out, got messy. See chart.

TATE entry triggered.

Adjusted GKN and LAND orders for tomorrow.

 

[barjon]

CPI?
u got dividend from STAN though?