Chatroom

[roguetrader]

Snapshot of how some sectors I watch closed on Friday

 

[barjon]

dow p&f

 

[roguetrader]

Closing sector prices on Wednesday of some sectors I watch

 

[roguetrader]

Closing sector prices on Friday

 

[apples10]

Return to an old channel line

Rogue,

really don't believe in your mechanism of trend lines for technicals. The trend line you are now talking about (as drawn on your chart) is a legacy line that bears no bearing on the current market.

You should delete/clear your old lines to increase the clarity.

 

[jimbo57]

Rogue,

really don't believe in your mechanism of trend lines for technicals. The trend line you are now talking about (as drawn on your chart) is a legacy line that bears no bearing on the current market.

You should delete/clear your old lines to increase the clarity.

On the contrary apples, I have to agree with Rogue. Longstanding trendlines and channels that are eventually broken do frequently come into play on a retest basis. They retain validity going forward

 

[apples10]

On the contrary apples, I have to agree with Rogue. Longstanding trendlines and channels that are eventually broken do frequently come into play on a retest basis. They retain validity going forward

Agree they are valid for a short time. But once you start drawing new trend lines, then historic ones are out of the equation.

If the market appears to be reacting to a legacy line, like on Rogues chart, it is because some other factor has come into play at that level (mav for instance).

 

[Racer]

Let me repeat that. Despite the huge budget deficit, the House actually voted to cut taxes by twice as much as it cuts spending. What are these people thinking? This is a democracy. So maybe it`s time for the people to send their elected representatives a message. Earth to Congress: we have a problem. I`m Alan Blinder.

Who cares.. it isn't causing a problem.. so until it does why bother about it

 

[roguetrader]

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal contribution to GDP
Below is a graph from a blog at Calculated Risk. I cannot vouch for the methodology (he may be exactly right), but the principle he espouses is certainly correct. MEW has been a significant factor in the GDP numbers. And this does not include any multiplier effect.


Mortgage applications are down almost 25% since June 22, yet home sales are holding steady. Nearly all the decline is in mortgage refinance applications. That slowdown will show up in the economic numbers next year.

Even assuming the graph is off a point (or even two), as there are very different estimates as to how much MEW flows through to consumer spending, the point is that home equity withdrawals are a large part of GDP growth.

 

[roguetrader]

SPX - ftse

 

[barjon]

ftse top 14 by cap

 

[barjon]

s&p/dow

 

[Racer]

S&P trendline

 

[Racer]

The report says that in the 53% of the years since 1958 that S&P 500 earnings growth has been above trend (greater than 6% annualized), stock market returns have been just 3.9% per year. When earnings growth has been below trend, in contrast, stock returns have averaged 8.1% per annum.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/jondmarkman/10250454.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

 

[roguetrader]

Retail Index

 

[Racer]

General retailers UK

 

[Racer]

27/12 13:10 - 10-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - U.S. vs Other Nations

Current -------------- Spread in Basis Points -----------
Yield Today Prev Day Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

U.S. 4.389 %
Australia 5.265 % 87.6 88.3 82.7 97.1 97.1
Austria 3.323 % -106.6 -106.2 -113.3 -103.0 -69.6
Belgium 3.356 % -103.3 -102.1 -110.0 -100.7 -67.4
Canada 3.993 % -39.6 -38.9 -44.2 -41.7 3.0
Denmark 3.330 % -105.9 -106.8 -113.8 -102.6 -51.0
France 3.340 % -104.9 -104.7 -110.9 -101.4 -69.0
Germany 3.332 % -105.7 -107.8 -112.0 -101.6 -68.8
Italy 3.531 % -85.8 -86.1 -93.5 -84.5 -54.0
Japan 1.500 % -288.9 -284.2 -293.3 -298.8 -290.3
Netherlands 3.322 % -106.7 -106.6 -113.7 -103.0 -72.1
Portugal 3.444 % -94.5 -94.3 -102.8 -92.9 -69.3
Spain 3.356 % -103.3 -102.6 -110.0 -99.6 -65.5
Sweden 3.345 % -104.4 -99.7 -111.8
U.K. 4.158 % -23.1 -22.3 -29.7 -27.1 16.2

................................................................
27/12 13:10 - 2-Yr Benchmark Govt Yields - U.S. vs Other Nations

Current -------------- Spread in Basis Points -----------
Yield Today Prev Day Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

U.S. 4.385 %
Australia 5.250 % 86.5 90.1 89.0 95.4 192.6
Austria 2.825 % -156.0 -150.6 -161.1 -160.3 -69.9
Belgium 2.812 % -157.3 -154.5 -162.7 -165.4 -66.9
Canada 3.838 % -54.7 -52.9 -59.9 -63.6 -7.6
Denmark 2.887 % -149.8 -149.3 -155.2 -156.7 -56.2
France 2.903 % -148.2 -145.0 -155.0 -155.5 -71.7
Germany 2.882 % -150.3 -159.4 -158.1 -163.0 -62.3
Italy 2.895 % -149.0 -146.6 -154.4 -156.7 -65.1
Japan 0.320 % -406.5 -404.0 -411.0 -409.4 -295.7
Netherlands 2.818 % -156.7 -155.9 -162.3 -162.2 -67.2
Portugal 2.878 % -150.7 -148.3 -157.4 -159.4 -66.9
Spain 2.656 % -172.9 -170.7 -174.1 -178.3 -65.1
Sweden 2.790 % -159.5 -156.9 -167.0 -193.7 -37.3
U.K. 4.215 % -17.0 -14.4 -14.6 -8.4 127.8

 

[Keith-n-ohio]

Thanks for posting your charts mr.marcus. Looks like I have more studying to do.

 

[Racer]

On a historical basis, S&P performance in early January can be a good gauge on
what to expect for the remainder of the year.

Gains in the broad gauge in the first five days of the month have preceded
full-year gains 85.7 pct of the time, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

However, 2006 is a midterm year, and the indicator has had a spotty record in
such periods.

"In the last 14 midterm years only six full years followed the direction of the
first five days, and none did in the last seven," the Almanac said.

Factory, construction data disappoint

Weaker-than-expected data hurt stock prices in morning trade.

Factory activity in the United States decelerated in December, the Institute for
Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index fell to 54.2 pct in December
from 58.1 pct in November. The decline was larger than expected. The consensus
forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to slip to 57.6
pct.

Outlays on US construction projects meanwhile increased 0.2 pct in November, the
smallest gain since June, the Commerce Department estimated.

 

[smbtnt]

..this shows the thats buyers in the futures markets are paying higher prices than sellers....either maybe there are no sellers about.....or maybe buyers are just tere in unusual levels compared....whatever its an imbalance and shows buyers willing to take positions at premium...when the average is above the fv level then safer to sit with longs until it starts levelling out and falling back.

Hi mr.marcus,

Fascinating charts!

Did you trade the fomc move?

If so, where was your entry/exit?