Career advice for a 15yr old

I think some of what we've been trying to tell you is sinking in!

"Market Wizards" is an excellent book. There is also "Inside the House of Money" which is a similar style, but this time purely with "macro" traders.

The Van Tharp book is good. Also "Come into my trading room" by Elder (not my favourite book, but it's got some very good stuff in it).

You must have a plan when you enter the markets. Without one, you are 100 pct likely to fail. Even with a plan, the success probability is probably only 20-40 pct.
 
What do you guys think is a realistic return goal for a first time investor? The book I'm currently reading says it's best to determine what kind of return you want so you can factor that into what kind of system you want. 10%?20%?
 
If your investment time horizon is 1 year and you're buying individual stocks, then your benchmark is to beat the index. That may or may not result in any profit.

If you are thinking of shorter term trading, then your benchmark is to break-even in your first year.

If you are thinking of short term trading (day trading) then your benchmark is not to have blown your account in your first year.
 
I think you need to clarify in your mind whether you want to invest or trade. "Value" is a concept of limited utility in trading as so much of the movement is based on rumour and the psychology/herd behaviour of market participants. If you're interested in investing for the long term (holding for long term, purchasing stocks for income and growth over time) value investing is an excellent concept although it will take lots of experience and learning (the usual suspects like Graham are as good as any). At your age though, you'd be better off with a higher risk trading approach for most of your funds, rebalancing as you go through life.
 
bevok said:
I think you need to clarify in your mind whether you want to invest or trade. "Value" is a concept of limited utility in trading as so much of the movement is based on rumour and the psychology/herd behaviour of market participants. If you're interested in investing for the long term (holding for long term, purchasing stocks for income and growth over time) value investing is an excellent concept although it will take lots of experience and learning (the usual suspects like Graham are as good as any). At your age though, you'd be better off with a higher risk trading approach for most of your funds, rebalancing as you go through life.
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Yes, more in trading, preferably fundamental/technical analysis, but that would vary as I read more(getting part the way through Trade your way to financial success. Also have new books I've found that I will try to devour later). Could have part of my portfolio in position type buys, and have the rest in swing trading. Scalping etc would be out of the question, what with school. But the majority of these books can be obtained in PDF format from a simple good search, or downloaded, which is absolutely excellent. Will speed things up a lot more.

It's early days, so this might just get completely disregarded anyway.
 
you know you can protect yourself from volatility in such a news driven stock at the moment- hedge with some protective puts and hold
 
So is anybody familiar with this term arbitrage? I've just been reading it now, but I've reread it and I still don't fully understand it. It seems to be addressing inefficiencies in a market (through use of loopholes or something), and using that to get a stock cheaper or something like that.

Does anybody do this or know more about it?
 
Arbitrage means a risk-free profit, for example by trading fungible instruments at different prices.
 
Don't do it but you're on the right track, its where you find a loophole or inefficiency that you can exploit for a virtually risk free profit. That is, you're not betting on direction or volatility, you're just taking money off the table. For example there used to often be a disparity between the eMini S&P and the big S&P, so traders would be able to buy one and sell the other and make guaranteed money when the difference closed. Another example is where the price of copper in London gets out of whack with COMEX, and you can buy/sell and wait for it to close. Obviously you still need some risk management as inevitably others discover the inefficiencies and that is why they always stop working. The activities of arbitrageurs are also why you don't tend to get oddities like the price of currency futures getting out of whack with the cash market (+carrying costs/benefits).
 
Ah, so arbitrageurs are the reason why there isn't anything more than a minuscule difference between different exchange rates? i.e. if I bought a whole load of USD with NZD and then bought slightly more GBP with the increased rate of NZD->USD instead of buying GBP with NZD? So there is not any profitable difference between each of the currencies at any one time?

It appears that most people would want to be right more in the expectancy of their trades making a profit, even if their losing trades are big enough to wipe out their profitable trades. I really didn't realize how dependent trading is on probability, risk management, and expectancy of success. It's very interesting.
 
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Dunecat said:
Ah, so arbitrageurs are the reason why there isn't anything more than a minuscule difference between different exchange rates?
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You're the only person I've ever seen spell "minuscule" correctly, other than Mr Hitchens, my English teacher. Do you use spellcheck before posting, or are you just very brainy?
 
I was impressed by arbitrageurs as well, lovely word to slur in conversation on a hot English afternoon with a glass of Pimms in hand, what what.
 
meanreversion said:
You're the only person I've ever seen spell "minuscule" correctly, other than Mr Hitchens, my English teacher. Do you use spellcheck before posting, or are you just very brainy?
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No, I did know how to spell minuscule now that you mention it, but what with this evil spellcheck my spelling is slipping. Do I care? na. But if I don't know the correct spelling of a word it's always good to look it up. Bred into me from all the years of my essays being undermined by little red circles.

I do not value intelligence as much as I do determination and discipline...
 
Is that the one near the old stock exchange? I think that's the first pub I ever went to in the City.. like a gas chamber downstairs with everyone puffing away... ah, those were the days
 
gooseman said:
ha-yep. good guinness. well, it was.
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On a side note, the guinness brewery in Dublin(I think? meh, Ireland is all the same) is pretty interesting, but they don't show you the actual machinery making Guiness, unlike the Bushmills whiskey distillery. Guiness is like the only thing actually making money in Dublin 😆

And seriously, I can't stand the taste of Guiness. Something that awful...Only from Ireland...
 
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Dunecat said:
Why risk your health drinking something so readily available? Anybody can get ridiculously drunk. If it's going to hurt me, I want to look back when I'm older and remember the great fun I had. For example; waking up the neighborhood with your latest nitrated aromatic-ring compound.
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Actually it takes quite a bit of skill, I have found.

Agree that a good opioid can't be beat though...
 
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