Can T2W be saved?

[BeginnerJoe]

I would be inclined to agree



Its not an issue for me, I was fortunate enough to have benefitted from that environment, you didnt. You unfortuately are stuck requesting statements from vendors in a marketers paradise, where the only input from real traders is lulz.

Whilst it in my own self interests to protect an nurture my market, its not in my interests to help potential competition, however in a rare act of kindness, I was kind enough to tell you EXACTLY what you need to do, knowing you wouldnt do it cos it involves more than 30 seconds work 😆

For your information most sites have not grown, they've withered and died, as will t2w eventually.

Well, it was generous of you to tell me exactly what to do. But it must have been so non-memorable that I never noticed it happen. If you really want to help me, just show me a real statement. I will be able to work out from that all I need to know.

When it comes to trading, I have plenty within myself, more so than a lot of people here. The only character fault in me is the need for 100% win. Once I have that fixed, I should be having plenty of lulz. Here's my stats for the current forum contest trades. You will notice a large number of wins. This kind of win ratio is consistent across time periods and is unmatched by anyone here. Disregard the drawdown and lack of profits. These are caused by my need for 100% win and non-existence loss management strategy. These are easy enough to fix.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Apologies for taking this thread off topic, but large swings are not "stressful for anyone". They are what I (and many others probably) call 'trading opportunities'.

Sounds to me as though you may have become locked into your own way of seeing things and imagine everyone must see things the same way.

Sorry for the diversion. You can all get back to whittling on about pointless fluff again now.

Large swings in psychology reflects large swings in P&L. I wasn't talking about market swings.

 

[the hare]

Well, it was generous of you to tell me exactly what to do. But it must have been so non-memorable that I never noticed it happen.

This is the hilariously funny thing. The post was DELETED !

I dont really want to blow my own trumpet, but it was probably one of the most useful posts ever made at t2w, and I am being serious.

I deliberated long and hard about letting a particular cat out of a particular bag, and to be honest, I shouldnt really have posted the information that I did, but I was feeling generous, and in a mood to make a positive contribution.

C.V. probably decided to put the cat back in the bag, as he's the only one around here who would recognise the value 😆

 

[TheBramble]

Large swings in psychology reflects large swings in P&L. I wasn't talking about market swings.

OK. I majored in cognitive psychology so with some authority can assure you that even psychological large swings are rarely stressful either - for the person having them.

Often is for the people around them that are unable or incapable of perceiving themselves s as being free of said swinger’s sphere of influence. Or the knife they’re wielding...

I imagine side-stepping wild psychotic individuals on a bulletin board are a fairly simple task. If you feel you’ve been affected though, call 1-800-I-CANT-TELL-FANTASY-FROM-REALITY and wait for the voices.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

This is the hilariously funny thing. The post was DELETED !

I dont really want to blow my own trumpet, but it was probably one of the most useful posts ever made at t2w, and I am being serious.

I deliberated long and hard about letting a particular cat out of a particular bag, and to be honest, I shouldnt really have posted the information that I did, but I was feeling generous, and in a mood to make a positive contribution.

C.V. probably decided to put the cat back in the bag, as he's the only one around here who would recognise the value 😆

Then you must be the only one laughing since you are the only one who saw that post. It just seems remarkably convinient for the most useful post from you to be deleted like that. To prove your claim, do that post again here. You have no worries I might steal your strategy. As I pointed out above, I am capable of something significantly better and anything less would not do. But indulge me for a bit of lulz.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

how on earth did you get a max drawdown of 40% of the account with 300 odd trades of 1 pip?

 

[TheBramble]

No need. I have it saved.

"Buy. Keep buying until it starts to move up. Get out at breakeven. Sell. Keep selling until it starts to move down. Get out at breakeven". It's known as the Brokers Mantra. I hear them all the time....

 

[timsk]

C.V. probably decided to put the cat back in the bag, as he's the only one around here who would recognise the value 😆

Is this one of those 'Schrodinger's Cat' type conundrums? Is the cat really out of the bag if no one realises it? (The mighty C_V. being the sole exception.)
:cheesy:

(Btw, I may be wrong, but I can't see any post of yours to this thread that's been deleted.)

 

[BeginnerJoe]

how on earth did you get a max drawdown of 40% of the account with 300 odd trades of 1 pip?

Why don't you look at the statement and it will become all clear. I am not shy with statements.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

OK. I majored in cognitive psychology so with some authority can assure you that even psychological large swings are rarely stressful either - for the person having them.

I am into applied psychology, something with use, and with value. The self destructive patterns of teh fonz is a projection of his trading strategy. Evidence suggests it was extremely stressful. One can then infer the wild P&L swings without ever seeing the statements.

 

[TheBramble]

I am into applied psychology, something with use, and with value. The self destructive patterns of teh fonz is a projection of his trading strategy. Evidence suggests it was extremely stressful.

I have bad news for you. It’s smoke and mirrors. All of it. An entire industry founded on pretty much one individual’s own psychoses and expanded upon those of his students.

Trouble is, all the ‘patterns’ are so accessible to those with no or very little training that everyone thinks they can use the terminology with those vaguely scientific sounding terms and it actually means something.

It’s all in YOUR head.

Nobody is a projection of anything. And nothing is a projection of anyone.

It really is all in YOUR head.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Why don't you look at the statement and it will become all clear. I am not shy with statements.

The lulz are strong in this one

 

[the hare]

how on earth did you get a max drawdown of 40% of the account with 300 odd trades of 1 pip?

Joe's stats are very lulzy.

My average trade time is about one third that of his, that means I get to apply my edge 3 times more frequently than he does.

My average profit, is 35 times greater than his (which is useful, and means that I actually earn considerably more than my broker on each transaction)

My maximum drawdown period is around one hundredth the length of his. Thats cool, becuause rather than waiting 8 days to earn an average of another pip, I get to make another 50 trades. This strategy was inspired by Phil Lynotts classic lyric from Thin Lizzy's The Boy's Are Back In Town "If that chick dont wanna know, forget her....." the concept applies equally well to trades and women.

My maximum drawdown over the last 10 years is less than one third of his (its almost a quarter) and thats cool too

My win rate isnt anywhere as good 😆 but nearer than he could possibly imagine

He's so far away from doing wot need to be done its almost unbelievable. He's probably been taking trading advice from some guy who smuggled a secret box out of Nazi Germany.

😆

 

[BeginnerJoe]

My win rate isnt anywhere as good 😆 but nearer than he could possibly imagine

There's only one way to prove it. Anything else is just beef pie.

 

[the hare]

There's only one way to prove it. Anything else is just beef pie.

I really do feel your pain. The need for proof is so vital to the development of a new trader.

My win rate these days is below 60% cos I'm doing the automated thang, and trade bigger possies, but back in the day when I was trading bbmac's set ups I was kickin seven feckin bells out the market and not that far below your hit rate (and that was with a tiny stop of 6 pips when I was on form, and 13 when hung over and a bit under the weather !, and thats on cable)

😆

Some of the people I was trading with made me look like I was playing at it. You need to keep lookin

 

[Atilla]

I have bad news for you. It’s smoke and mirrors. All of it. An entire industry founded on pretty much one individual’s own psychoses and expanded upon those of his students.

Trouble is, all the ‘patterns’ are so accessible to those with no or very little training that everyone thinks they can use the terminology with those vaguely scientific sounding terms and it actually means something.

It’s all in YOUR head.

Nobody is a projection of anything. And nothing is a projection of anyone.

It really is all in YOUR head.

My pscyhie was my worst enemy thinking I knew it all. Conquering the ego and psycholigical aspects was the hardest part. Sharing other peoples experiences and in particular my exchanges with Firewalker helped me a lot. I also lost a lot of money on the Dow whilst dear old Firewallker was making it. Experiences indeed... 😱

The charts, the FA, the TA, the setups and all the learning etc etc was the easy part.

I still don't think I'm there yet as I would like to envisage my self as a trader. I still get somewhat emotional at times but much better than before - I like to think so anyway. However, it has dawned on me recently that it may not necessarily be to do with my ability to trade any better but simply maturing and taking a different view of life.

You know more mellow and less temperamental with age reflecting on a little better psychology adapted to trading. I'm wiser but none the wiser about the true reason behind success. It could even be because I've practiced losing money so long it's now turning round. 🙄

If I had to put my finger on key fundamental change - I would say it is thy self and how one approaches and conducts one self in the trade.

I also went into expectancy and a member called CYOF helped me here understanding and monitoring my performance which subsequently helped with appreciating my trading pscyhology.

I've just dug out an old document I had saved. Would you believe it Socrates is in there too. Well well well.


Will post here after this one as trip down memory lane.


I salute T2W and past legendary members helping me become a better trader. 👍

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

I've was digging through my Trading folder and came across this gem which obviously I had saved and digested. It is a cut and paste from my Word doc so not sure how it will turn out.

To any new wannabee traders I would recommend digesting this post from some old masters. 🙂


/* Start */



No problem Atilla.

Just remember, I am in the same boat as the majority.

I am not an expert at trading, but then again, there appears that they are few and far between, so I don't feel too much out of place

When I do my Expectancy sheet this week - probably near the end of the week as it is fairly busy at the moment, you will see that my current attempts at trading are not so good.

But, with the help of evaluating my of live trades, and with the introduction of One Time Framing technique, I do expect to see some improvement in my results.

At least I will now have a framework for evaluating where I am in relation to my development as a trader, along with a tried and tested technique that is used by many seasoned floor traders on the CME.

Remember, we do not have to re-invent the wheel, we just need to make sure that we fully understand why the wheel turns.

Regards,

PS: If you never heard of One Time Framing - then you know what to do - start searching!
__________________
CYOF


Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink
What is the correct way to think, anyway? If we don't know that then we won't be able to do it.. I saw a film last night in which someone said " To do the correct thing is easy.. It is knowing what the correct thing is that is the problem."

I would disagree with the first sentence. Doing the correct thing is, also, very much, a problem, But the second sentence is very true and not all of us have the same opinion about what the correct thing is.

Split


This is exactly why one must keep an open mind.

Remember, readers will be saying "what is in this for me", in other words what "value", if any, is there in this information.

When we talk about thinking correctly, what exactly are we talking about?

Are we talking about philosophical thinking, or thinking from a scientific viewpoint?

For me, it is very simple. If I read something, and I think that the information that I am reading is worth more investigation, then I will commit to further research.

Actually, this is how I am earning my living at the moment. When I find information that I consider to be of value, I will spend many hours researching this information in great detail until I understand the information to the best of my ability. I will then present a simplified version of what value this information can bring to the company I am working for.

Example, I read an article on Benchmarking and think, hey, this has merit and according to my understanding of the concepts this can greatly assist the company I am currently working for. I will then research the topic in great detail, buy some books on the subject, carry out numerous advanced searches on the Web, and finally produce as simple document that I can present to my customer for consideration.

The next step, following approval to proceed, will be to develop a plan.

S.M.A.R.T objectives will be used to produce a Plan.

The plan is the means by which we reach our desired objectives. It can be as complicated, or as simple, as we want to make it.

Plans can, and do, change, and I will go as far as saying that these changes are an absolute requirement in order to achieve the end results. Many things will have not been foreseen, as none of us posses all the knowledge that is available on any particular subject. We must be aware of the associated issues, risks and assumptions.

So, if you compare my real life experiences to that of trading, you will see that there are many similarities, In fact, I believe that everything we do in life is replicated in one form or another, over and over, and once we recognises this fact, it then becomes easier to learn How To Think Correctly!

Is anyone getting any value from my posts – or not?

Be honest, as honestly is always the best policy.

If not, or if you are not sure, then why not ASK questions as some do. You will find it very hard to acquire new knowledge unless you start asking questions.

I may not have the answer, and may actually not be able to answer any questions that I am asked, but if I consider the question to be relevant to what I am trying to achieve, then I will commit to do further research in relation to the question asked. I will always tell the truth in relation to the subject matter in question – for to not recognise the truth is only to fool oneself, and this results in nothing but time wasting – which is a major problem in this day and age, especially with the use of the WWW.

Remember the approach that Socrates took – his greatest realisation was that he actually knew nothing. Of course he knew something, something that the majority had not discovered, but he was wise enough to know that been humble is one of the greatest virtues that man can possess. We are fortunate that mankind has advanced to the stage that we shall probably not be executed for expressing our opinions – well, for the most part that is, so we really do not have anything to fear, but ourselves!

By the way – I think that all people who contribute to the posts are well on their way to learning what is required in order to achieve consistent profits in the markets. The degree to which the posting will benefit the end result, will be in direct proportion to the effort expended in relation to the subject matter in question. I do not expect, and nor should anyone else for that matter, expect to get all the answers from the posts. But it is the act of doing that produces results – no gain without the pain, so as to speak.

Regards,
__________________
CYOF
Quote:
Originally Posted by SOCRATES
Correct.

Yes expectancy is the key and not belief.

The accuracy of this expectancy increases with knowledge and practice.

Therefore to expect with an overwhelming degree of certainty is the ideal, and to have it verified consistently is the proof you need.


Now, this is exactly what I mean when I say that ASKING a question can lead to information of some REAL value!

It is up to the individual to interpret the information for what it is worth - if you see no value in the information, then ask yourself, why?

What are others seeing that I am not seeing?

There is only one way to find out, and that is to do some work. Start searching the WWW - a tip for searching to save some time - use the "Advanced Search" facility in Google, and only search for files that are File Types with "type pdf". When you find a site that has a good article, the limit your search further to only search this website for additional material. This will help you avoid the many "sellers" who push out rubbish information that is only compiled for one purpose, to make money. Try other things as you learn to search mor selectively, and you will be surprised at what you might discover

Atilla, take note of Socrates post above where he mentions the word "Expectancy".

At first, this word may not seem that important, and the context in which Socrates uses it may not be the same as I am going to use, but watch what is going to happen now.

It just so happens, that I consider a full understanding of "System Expectancy" to be the one of the main contributors to consistent profitable trading.

Why is that so?

Well, in the first instance you must know where you are in relation to your development as a consistent profitable trader. How do you go about this?

The most logical way, is to look at your results, as your results are who you are, and who you are is what you really need to know.

It just so happens that I raised this point in another thread recently as follows:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/sho...3498#post293498

As a follow up to this, because I think that this subject is so important, I suggested that we start a new thread just to discuss this topic. When I done a search, prior to starting the new thread, I discovered that there was already one started some years ago.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/sho...ight=Expectancy

I noted that I will ask the moderator to copy the relevant post over to the existing thread to continue the discussion, and I will now do this today.

So, do you think that by asking a question you have now gained a new insight into how to develop your trading skills - I think so anyway, but it it is entirely up to you, and your way of thinking, that will determine how much value is in the information.

Regards,
__________________
CYOF


/* end */


My sincere thanks 🙂

 

[Atilla]

Here is another post from CYOF I saved. Doc's called Expectancy...


/* Start */
Hi FW,

To clarify what I am talking about, I will put my trades to date into an excel sheet and post for discussion - a picture can tell a thousand words.

I am not sure if we are talking about the same thing here - but the 3 main points in relation to what I said previously using an excel sheet to work out your Expectancy are:

1) You will know what trades you need to look at for improving your stops.
2) You will have a running live Expectancy figure based on your actual trading - so if this is staying more or less consistent then you know you are on the right track.
3) You can then start looking at various position sizing techniques to maximise your R on winning trades - but this testing is based on your actual results - not some hypothetical results from testing a "system".

If you have a system with a consistent positive Expectancy, then you leave it alone and only test various position sizing techniques for your winning system.

The fact that you have a more or less consistent number - tells you you are on the right track. You do not need to change anything - just look at various scenarios for maximising returns.

IMHO, this is the only thing that testing is good for.

Personally, I do not have any faith in backtesting strategies to see if the results are positive or negative. Your live results tell you if you are on track - no hypothetical results can ever tell you.

Testing for maximising profits is something completely different - and that has merit in that you are using data from a live running profitable sample set. If you compare it to Grey1's approach - where Grey1 reduces his risk, and then increases his risk again, depending on various TA combinations. But, the important point to note here, is that Grey 1 is working on a live system that he already knows the expectancy figure for - or he may be calling it something else - but he knows from his everyday results that he can adjust his parameters to minimise risk and maximise gain.

This level of professional trading is very rare - something that the majority of us, including myself, may never achieve. It requires a big bank account, total confidence in yourself and your abilities, but most importantly, a system with a good positive Expectancy figure. This is the basis for achieving any real success in trading.

So, we may be talking about the same think here, or we may not, but we will soon find out by posting details of live trades.

Live results are all that matter - hypothetical testing to determine if a system will have more winners than losers is, IMHO, worth piddly p**s. Testing to maximise profits, on the other hand, is a level that very few will achieve, but it can not be even considered if you don't have alive sample set to work with.

Remember all that emotional stuff that keeps popping up in alot of threads - well that is all taken care of in your live running Expectancy figure. The results are what you are - and the results will determine if you can go forward to the next level, or not.

Just my thoughts on it - lets get some figures down so that we can all understand what we are talking about. I will do it next week - as I am off travelling the weekend and will probably not get a chance.

Regards,

PS: Apologies to Grey1 for using him as an example - but he is the only trader that I have seen to date who can do what he does. I am not saying that more are not doing it - but I have not seen their results as I have seen with Grey1. As I keep saying - the only thing that matters is results!
__________________
CYOF
/* end */

 

[Atilla]

I'd forgotten Devilbis Wave Rider but here is another interesting Word doc full of gems...

Enjoy 🙂


/* Start */

Hi Attilla,

no you have your own but only thing out of my own research I kept so ~

Well read and sure you have read them before on your travels, but I like to read em from time to time

"Old Rules...but Very Good Rules"

If I've learned anything in my 17 years of trading, I've learned that the simple
methods work best. Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics, linear
weighted moving averages, smoothing techniques, fibonacci numbers etc.,
usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that
they cannot make a rational decision. One technique says buy; another says
sell. Another says sit tight while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a
cliché, but simple methods work best.

1. The first and most important rule is - in bull markets, one is supposed to
be long. This may sound obvious, but how many of us have sold the first
rally in every bull market, saying that the market has moved too far, too
fast. I have before, and I suspect I'll do it again at some point in the
future. Thus, we've not enjoyed the profits that should have accrued to
us for our initial bullish outlook, but have actually lost money while being
short. In a bull market, one can only be long or on the sidelines.
Remember, not having a position is a position.

2. Buy that which is showing strength - sell that which is showing
weakness. The public continues to buy when prices have fallen. The
professional buys because prices have rallied. This difference may not
sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to
"buy low, sell high", but to "buy higher and sell higher". Furthermore,
when comparing various stocks within a group, buy only the strongest
and sell the weakest.

3.When putting on a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the
biggest trade of the year. Don't enter a trade until it has been well
thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and
contingency plans set for exiting the trade.

4.On minor corrections against the major trend, add to trades. In bull
markets, add to the trade on minor corrections back into support levels.
In bear markets, add on corrections into resistance. Use the 33-50%
corrections level of the previous movement or the proper moving average
as a first point in which to add.

5.Be patient. If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before
putting the trade on.

6.Be patient. Once a trade is put on, allow it time to develop and give it
time to create the profits you expected.

7.Be patient. The old adage that "you never go broke taking a profit" is
maybe the most worthless piece of advice ever given. Taking small profits
is the surest way to ultimate loss I can think of, for small profits are
never allowed to develop into enormous profits. The real money in
trading is made from the one, two or three large trades that develop
each year. You must develop the ability to patiently stay with winning
trades to allow them to develop into that sort of trade.

8.Be patient. Once a trade is put on, give it time to work; give it time to
insulate itself from random noise; give it time for others to see the merit
of what you saw earlier than they.

9.Be impatient. As always, small losses and quick losses are the best losses.
It is not the loss of money that is important. Rather, it is the mental
capital that is used up when you sit with a losing trade that is important.

10.Never, ever under any condition, add to a losing trade, or "average" into
a position. If you are buying, then each new buy price must be higher
than the previous buy price. If you are selling, then each new selling
price must be lower. This rule is to be adhered to without question.

11.Do more of what is working for you, and less of what's not. Each day,
look at the various positions you are holding, and try to add to the trade
that has the most profit while subtracting from that trade that is either
unprofitable or is showing the smallest profit. This is the basis of the old
adage, "let your profits run."

12.Don't trade until the technicals and the fundamentals both agree. This
rule makes pure technicians cringe. I don't care! I will not trade until I am
sure that the simple technical rules I follow, and my fundamental
analyses, are running in tandem. Then I can act with authority, and with
certainty, and patiently sit tight.

13.When sharp losses in equity are experienced, take time off. Close all
trades and stop trading for several days. The mind can play games with
itself following sharp, quick losses. The urge "to get the money back" is
extreme, and should not be given in to.

14.When trading well, trade somewhat larger. We all experience those
incredible periods of time when all of our trades are profitable. When that
happens, trade aggressively and trade larger. We must make our
proverbial "hay" when the sun does shine.

15.When adding to a trade, add only 1/4 to 1/2 as much as currently held.
That is, if you are holding 400 shares of a stock, at the next point at
which to add, add no more than 100 or 200 shares. That moves the
average price of your holdings less than half of the distance moved, thus
allowing you to sit through 50% corrections without touching your
average price.

16.Think like a guerrilla warrior. We wish to fight on the side of the market
that is winning, not wasting our time and capital on futile efforts to gain
fame by buying the lows or selling the highs of some market movement.
Our duty is to earn profits by fighting alongside the winning forces. If
neither side is winning, then we don't need to fight at all.

17.Markets form their tops in violence; markets form their lows in quiet
conditions.

18.The final 10% of the time of a bull run will usually encompass 50% or
more of the price movement. Thus, the first 50% of the price movement
will take 90% of the time and will require the most backing and filling and
will be far more difficult to trade than the last 50%.

There is no "genius" in these rules. They are common sense and nothing else,
but as Voltaire said, "Common sense is uncommon." Trading is a common-sense
business. When we trade contrary to common sense, we will lose. Perhaps not
always, but enormously and eventually. Trade simply. Avoid complex
methodologies concerning obscure technical systems and trade according to
the major trends only
__________________
Develbis,
Wave Rider



/* End */

 

[TheBramble]

Well, that sure as hell answered it.

Answer to OP's question:-

"NO!".