Calling all "Senior Members T2W" Experienced traders! Help Newbies?

Posting the copy publicly breaks international copyright law, so the post containing the copy has had to be removed. dbphoenix now has a copy of the text.
 
Skimbleshanks said:
Posting the copy publicly breaks international copyright law, so the post containing the copy has had to be removed. dbphoenix now has a copy of the text.
Click to expand...

Is it possible for someone who has seen this text to compose a brief summary of what you are talking about?
JO
 
Skim,
Please accept my apologies for pasting in the news copy.
I merely did so to be helpful and didn't consider copyright law.
Sorry to cause you inconvenience.
Richard
 
JumpOff
The 4th paragraph consists of two sentences:

The scientists did so by blocking the effects of a gene in the brain called D2, which cut off the link between the monkeys’ motivation and perceived reward. Humans have an identical gene.
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Mr.Charts:
No problem!
 
dbp

I accept your comments about books, it was in fact me that suggested Garden read the Elder book because I personally found it of use when considering a trading plan and what it requires. I found it had been put together in an easy to follow manner and this work I felt moved on from Piper's book. It was from this aspect that I made the suggestion because as yet I have not found a better publication for me to use. That is not to say another one does not exist, I am sure it does just that I have not been referred to it.

In each book there maybe something that you see fits into your trading as for the indicators you mention I quite agree completely worthless to me and I suspect Garden but that is the nature of books. Only small sections maybe of use. The problem for newbies is where to find reliable information of note. I made it clear Elder will not provide all of the answers, most of these you have to find for yourself but I felt the plan and what it requires is of help and the one thing about a book you can go back over it again at your own pace if something just does not trigger with you.

In respect of books I noted you reference to Wyckoff and Livermore, these are new to me but I am open minded enough to consider them as I find your posts both interesting and educational. All the data available for market research now it is a mind-field for new traders to know if the material is relevant. I was recommended the Elder book by another trader and having taken the plunge it had something to offer me. On this basis I have also recommended it.

Of course the best solution to this problem would be to have one to one tuition from a genuine trader, if the trader has the time (working around a day job) the funds (to pay for what will probably cost a great deal) and the research to confirm a tutor is in fact worthy to tutor. There lies the problem, those in the business may have very good links to professional tutors of outstanding credentials but the average newbie has no idea if the person before him is worthy without such contacts. Therefore for most other forms of tuition have to be found, such as books, sites like this with a great deal of filtering and the most important person OURSELVES.

Kevin

ps Garden if you are reading this let me reiterate the Elder book was a good read for me but you must keep an open mind and just not take what you read in any book as verbatim. If something catches your attention then research it thoroughly. There are some basic set ups that are nothing new and are in the public domain already but the new stuff you have to see if it is relevant for you and it probably will not be. The section that covers the trading plan is what I felt was most useful and it was that part of the book I was drawing your attention to.
 
kevin546 said:
dbp

In each book there maybe something that you see fits into your trading as for the indicators you mention I quite agree completely worthless to me and I suspect Garden but that is the nature of books. Only small sections maybe of use. The problem for newbies is where to find reliable information of note.

Of course the best solution to this problem would be to have one to one tuition from a genuine trader, if the trader has the time (working around a day job) the funds (to pay for what will probably cost a great deal) and the research to confirm a tutor is in fact worthy to tutor. .
Click to expand...

A. If one is learning what trading is all about, it is not possible to "see" anything that "fits" into his trading since he is not yet trading. Instead, he is acquiring sets of what is very likely misinformation about trading, much or most of which will interfere with the learning process, if not sooner, then later.

B. The only "reliable" information is that which is found in price, and traders most often determine price by looking at a chart (though many traders never bother with charts, focusing on price action directly and exclusively). Price information and charts are available everywhere, for nothing.

C. Unless you're very lucky, perhaps the worst solution is one-on-one work with a "genuine" trader, particularly if it involves money.

The first step is to decide whether or not one wants to become involved in an auction market, the stock market being one such market.

The second step is to decide whether or not one wants to understand anything at all about the market he has chosen to trade and the method he has chosen or developed to trade it.

If the answers to these questions are "yes", then read the Demand pdf which I uploaded earlier. Determine whether or not its contents are true by studying charts.

If you decide that it is true, then study the PV threads I sponsored at ET.:

Price and Volume

Price and Volume: Strategy

Determine whether or not their contents are true by studying charts.

Then begin developing strategies and tactics to profit from these price moves. You can do this yourself by following steps in the "scientific method" (posted earlier), or you can steal something from somewhere, though you will still have to test it using the same steps.

There's more, of course, but this will keep you busy for a while. If you're unable to stay connected with reality or if personal problems interfere with the process, it will take longer than a while.
 
I think you may have missed my point, but I agree with all that you have posted.

I have already taken the path you highlight, I am aware that price is the main factor on a chart, so my plan is already built around that which I have tested and my own trading psyche. I have selected my entry and exit signals accordingly from the knowledge I have gained from the test results and how I have performed.

I think you missed my point, it was what should be included in a trading plan that extended my thinking in this area not trading signals etc not any specific signal although one set up in the book is one that I was already using and still do to good affect.

I do not use volume because I only day trade the FTSE and volume it is not available to me real time, so I focus directly on price, but I appreciate that volume is the 2nd most important piece of information provided the data is correct. However it is demand and supply that creates the final pressure to push the price one way or the other.

I will read you attachments because as I said earlier I am open minded and well aware that I still have things to learn or unlearn as you would say and should I ever wish to expand my trading to another instrument then volume would be my next point of reference.

However it can only work with a trading plan formulated from correct knowledge and that is what I say this book helped me with. It made me realise I needed to consider all aspects of what was involved when trading, what would be asked of me through each stage and from that I built my signal/s and my focus to trade according to a specific process. On going evaluation maintains the method.

But I thank you for your post and concern. What I would be interested in is what you feel Wyckoff and Livermore published works would offer.

Regards

Kevin
 
I'm afraid you may have missed my point as well, but that's okay. Perhaps we should move on.
 
DBP.....

I just spent a short while reading some of your stuff re price and volume. I'd be interested in working with you further on it if you can spare the time ?

PM me with your response if poss as not to pull the thread off subject.

Many thanks,
Steve.
 
stevespray said:
DBP.....

I just spent a short while reading some of your stuff re price and volume. I'd be interested in working with you further on it if you can spare the time ?

PM me with your response if poss as not to pull the thread off subject.

Many thanks,
Steve.
Click to expand...

Since there's so little available on the subject (which is why I wound up putting something together myself), any contribution you'd be willing and able to make would be welcome. However, the PV thread would be a more appropriate spot, unless you want to start a new thread, which would be perfectly okay by me.
 
Bigbusiness said:
Richard,

That is the highest failure% I have seen. I have seen it written in the past that 70 to 80% of traders fail and I have seen a few people quote a higher number but 95% seems a bit extreme.
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One of the main studies that gave the 95% failure was the one by NASAA (Nth american securties Admin. assco.)in 1999. That study found that less than 5% of daytraders were profitable and that most eventually lost all their stake.
There have also been some informal studies of Spread bet shop that suggest 99% of traders/gamblers on those lose money.
However there are other studies that found up to 20% of traders made money.

But even among those who make money few make a long-time profession out of it. I would be surprised if there were more than 1 in 500.
I had a conversation with one of the popular vendors who has personally trained 15,000 traders (at a thousand or so a head)- when I asked how many were still trading (not going so far as to ask for profitable ones) he admitted only a handful keep in contact longer than a year or two.
Anyway anyone who offers an apparent lifeline (no matter they be patronising, waffling and anonymous )will get pmed and pickup a few fee paying students. And sites like this are great fishing spots for vendors. When they fail the teacher can console himself that so few make it anyway.
 
Salut Gerard

I don't see here any reference to what it is your paper trading. Do you have any favorite instruments (I always loved that one..instruments) The holy trinity comprising the Euro/$, Euro/Chf, $/Chf. I've always liked and found interesting. Three is about my limit at any one time. Do you have a lot of time for this game? What are your goals as in how much money do you want to make say each day ? I give myself a primary goal of 200$ each time I decide to play. I try to play at times I know to generally hospitable. I usually can acheive this. I trade 1 contract usually and just try to get in the days groove. I always paper trade for an hour or until I feel it's right for me to move. I use a simple oscillator 20/4 & 10/3 to identify the range and moving averages to identify potential problems ie. where the market might want to break to etc. and I only stay in the water for 20 minutes max. usually less than 10. Sometimes I lose 100$, 200$ before I get a profit but tit for tat. I know that some of the traders will say this is bad but I enjoy it. and I think if you don't enjoy something then why bother to compel yourself to have to do it? I think emotions play the most important and positive role in trading. I know traders don't agree generally but you have to know yourself. I can't keep out of a system. I don't trust them so I have to check them constantly and I don't like that much. I like to be there. Figure it out for the moment pull the trigger in out. But what about you. What to you like about trading?

I just joined the site and only posted once so ah? what do you think ..am I wrong to be trying to relate to Gerard? I do not wish to give advice as such....but Gerard you don't seem to have defined youself in regards to the market. best regards. hastings




gerard said:
Socrates and all other Experts –especially Darksiders!!



As a self confessed loser (although luckily I only paper trade) I thought it would be of use to give you some thoughts on your comments on why we refuse to listen. Let me say from the start that I think you are quite right! Also let me say that everything I say is just my view even when I state it as a fact! Having been at the stage where I knew everything for sure I now know nothing for sure and would welcome other views on what I say.

I have been learning for over a year, and it is only now that I think I’m beginning to FULLY realising the enormity of the task. Throughtout this period I have read acres of stuff continuously telling me there is no holy grail blah blah. All this I have always agreed with. My very first action when I started learning was to email Tom Huggard after one of his seminars and ask him what chance I –a complete novice planning to teach myself- had in competing against seasoned professional of many years standing. This set has already been weeded out to eliminate the losers and dunces and a lot of them dont make money I believe. How could I even contemplate beating them. I realised logically that it must be a Herculean task to become a winner but I still kept hoping subconsciously, as I started reading yet another book on some weird indicator or whatever, that it would give me the elusive edge - the Holy Grail-that would make me profitable. What other profession could you expect to walk into and become one of the top 20% after 6 months self teaching. What arrogance is that.

For those of us not lucky enough to have mentors or be part of a trading firm it is a very lonely task. Just as the market is full of misinformation, fake outs, manipulation, dead ends, false starts etc etc, so the self learning route is also a minefield. We have no way of seeing the true path when we start out. We don’t see that 99% of this stuff only takes us so far, and that’s not very far. It then simply repeats itself again and again and again, often very well disguised and wrapped up with enticing marketing and novel ways of staing the obvious. In the learning path there are so many false trails, dead ends, deliberate fake outs, misinformation, calculated plots etc that us learners are bound to get the wrong end of the stick a good many times. At the start, how are we to know which route is good and which is bad? Who we should trust and who we shouldn’t? We can’t, and as a result all of us continuously make mistakes, get the wrong end of the stick, misread positions and generally waste time.

Why do the majority of us fail to grasp the nettle. My view is that the market adapts to ensures that we do not. If it were any easier the market would change to eradicate this edge and make it more difficult. If all losers were to become as good as the top traders what would happen. The market is essentially an overall no gain entity. So the way the market worked would change such that only the top 20% of all these now numerous expert traders would make money. Only those who change with it would keep winning. The faster they change the faster the market would change. The market will therefore keep changing until the majority cannot or will not crack it. As soon as they do the market changes again. The market will always win in this race just as 2+2 always= 4. I believe this is the fundamental truth in the market –even more fundamental than supply and demand, if that’s possible.

I suppose what I am saying is that for those of us learning on our own, this path through the search for the holy grail is obligatory. It’s human nature to subconsciously look for it. Only when the message sinks right into the depths of our subconscious can we start the real process of learning.

So my message to the experts is please, please don’t give up on us just because us losers seem like were not listening or we get the wrong end of the stick sometimes and occasionally make a fool of ourselves. We are listening but we have to go through a very difficult process which must take time and effort. By definition only a few of us will get through to the end but that is the way it must be. Unlike current exams where the pass rate keeps on climbing, the trading pass rate is fixed. The better educated the candidates are the higher the standard for passing is.

All this may sound good but the problem is, do I really fully comprehend it myself or is my logical self just regurgitating all I’ve read in the myriad of books and BBs I’ve studied. Or perhaps it’s all rubbish and I’m on another dead end track. I really do wish I knew. ARRRRRRRRRRGH

Regards

Gerard
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GammaJammer

GammaJammer said:
Well all I can say is blimey.

Just waded through all 40 pages of this stuff. Some great posts and some pretty awful ones. And I'm now a couple of hours older.

Gardan - hope you weren't too put off by the sheer volume of traffic, much of which was possibly of little or no use to you. In amongst all this lurks some (imho) genuinely useful and insightful commentary, both from a trading psychology point of view and from a more, for lack of a better description, 'practical' one. JumpOff, SteveSpray, Kevin546, NBO and, dare I say it, amongst the slightly bizarre ranting even Socrates all made some decent points. Others as well but I'm not going to list everyone who made what I think are good points as this is purely my opinion.

I personally think that the simple method that nbo advocates works pretty well. I try and do something similar myself (trading fx). I like it because I agree with the sentiment that the market can sometimes be one big spoof by the professionals (brokers, banks etc) and this system goes some way towards reducing the amount of times you get whipsawed out of a position (well that's kind of the theory anyway). In addition it seems to fit FX well as these retracements after key breaks are often when model based hedge funds etc will get signals generated to enter positions. "On the side of the pro's" etc.

But the important thing as far as I'm concerned is to develop a methodology that you're confident with, and stick to it. Not all that important what it is, as long as it makes some dough and doesnt blow you up, but only with belief will you ride out the inevitable bad patch we all go through.

Good luck finding such a system for yourself Gardan.

GJ
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Sorry for not anwering your above post earlier. I went on holiday for a couple of weeks and when I came back, I thought the thread had finished its run.

I think IMO that this was probably due to Socrates sudden absence. I was really disappointed in this as I was learning/ un-learning tons of stuff from the thread as am I sure lots of members where. That is to say not just from Socrates but all the other top members who contributed to this thread, I very grateful for that.

I was also very disappointed after being told by Socrates several times that ,all would be revealed and I would see "FIREWORKS".
He also said, he promised and I always keep my promises?????

After three months of following the site every day and November 5th, came and went and not a sparkler in sight, I was a little peeved.

After reading other threads I guess I should of known better.

Ignoring my little winge, thank you for your post and the well wishes, I also wish you well.

Gardan
 
Gardan, what HAVE you gone and done?

You know he's there, lurking in the shadows - just waiting for his chance....

Plus, he now has an apprentice.

Or should I say, an apprenticess???
 
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