Buy at Support - Sell at Resistance

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's 5-Minute Chart...

Friday's price action was similar to that of Thursday's in that the QQQQ continued to back-and-fill below Resistance at the 2006 Spring Peak ($43.00).

Friday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows 3 days of Resistance at the 2006 Spring Peak.

On Monday, the 2006 Spring Peak continues to represent a pivotal line to which the QQQQ returns again and again. Above it, therefore, represents neutral to bullish territory. Below it represents neutral to bearish territory.

Monday's area of Gathering Resistance (Sell Alert) is between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Monday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ rose on Monday to Gathering Resistance between $43.26 and $43.39. Resistance was found and the QQQQ pulled back $0.32 to a subsequent low of $43.07.

Monday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the morning rise to Gathering Resistance and the subsequent pull back.

On Tuesday:

1)The QQQQ is in neutral to bullish territory above its 2006 Spring Peak ($43.00).

2) It will trade initially based on the 8:30am Housing Starts Report.

3) The Fed begins a two-day meeting at 2:00pm that will culminate in Wednesday's 2:15pm interest rate announcement.

Tuesday's area of Gathering Resistance (Sell Alert) is between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ added to Monday's rally on Tuesday. Volume, however, was one of the lightest of 2007. A rising price that occurs on light volume suggests a lack of enthusiasm among buyers and, therefore, has questionable staying power.

Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows a day in which the QQQQ found Support at its Daily Pivot ($43.20). Support at a Daily Pivot favors trades on the long side within the current trading day.

On Wednesday:

1)The QQQQ remains in neutral to bullish territory above its 2006 Spring Peak ($43.00).

2) The main economic event of the week will arrive at 2:15pm when the Fed releases its interest rate decision.

The market is expecting no change in rates and is hoping for a statement that suggests the Fed is more concerned about an economy that may be weakening than it is about inflation.

Such a statement could send the QQQQ to Wednesday's area of Gathering Resistance between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Wednesday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ rallied impressively starting at 2:15pm when the Fed left interest rates unchanged and announced that it saw signs of a weakening economy, thereby, giving hope that the next move in interest rates may be down.

Wednesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the rally was with such force that it sliced through a substantial area of Gathering Resistance between $43.81 and $44.00.

On Thursday:

1) Whenever a rally slices through an area of Gathering Resistance without pausing to say 'howdy do' as it did on Thursday, it invariably revisits the violated area of Gathering Resistance in order to pay its proper respects. That revisit may occur on Thursday.

2) At10:00am, the QQQQ will focus on the Leading Economic Indicators Report...one number representing 10 individual economic indicators that, when taken together, suggest either future strength or future weakness in the economy.

3) Thursday's area of Gathering Resistance is between $__.__ and $__.__

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ closed the week doing not much on light volume as it continued to work off the excesses of Wednesday's post FOMC rally.

Friday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows a narrow 30-cent trading range within which the QQQQ spent the day.

On Monday, the QQQQ still owes traders a visit to Wednesday's area of Gathering Resistance which, having been captured, may now serve as an area of Gathering Support between $43.84 and $44.00.

Monday's 2-member area of Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__. Interestingly, a third aspect of Resistance is in that vicinity. It stands at $__.__ and represents Resistance at ...

The 10:00am New Home Sales Report may draw a reaction from the QQQQ.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Monday's 5-Minute Chart...

Last Wednesday, when the QQQQ sliced through Gathering Resistance between $43.81 and $44.00 without the customary pause, it was noted that the QQQQ would be forced to return to that area in order to pay its proper respects. That return was accomplished on Monday, compliments of a weak 10:00am New Housing Starts Report.

Monday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows how the QQQQ dipped at 10:00am to revisit Wednesday's captured area of Gathering Resistance and how, after dipping a little more, it found its footing and recovered to close up on the day.

On Tuesday, the QQQQ is now free to challenge a 2-member area of Gathering Resistance between $__.__ and $__.__.

Interestingly, a third aspect of Resistance is in that vicinity. It stands at $__.__ and represents Resistance at...

At 10:00am, the QQQQ may react to the Consumer Confidence Report.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart...

Tuesday's action was reminiscent of Friday's action in that the QQQQ traded within an extremely narrow range on extremely light volume. Such subdued action suggests that the QQQQ isn't sure which direction to take next and needs a little time to sort itself out.

Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the details of the 29-cent trading range.

On Wednesday, two economic events will spur the QQQQ into more lively action than was seen on Tuesday:

1) The QQQQ will trade initially based on the 8:30am Durable Goods Report.

2) Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before Congress. No person on earth has greater ability to move the markets by what he says about the economy and inflation than does a Fed Chairman. Traders, therefore, will listen intently to his every word.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Wednesday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ delivered a wild ride for traders on Wednesday on rising volume, compliments of the day's economic reports and Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments about inflation.

Wednesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows how the QQQQ gapped down to open at the lower end of Gathering Support, compliments of the weak 8:30am Durable Goods Report, how it then violated Gathering Support, compliments of the 10:30am Petroleum Status Report, and finally, how Gathering Support was transformed by its violation into Gathering Resistance (Support, when violated by a falling price, becomes Resistance).

On Thursday, the QQQQ may deliver a little more downside based on a bearish 'Head & Shoulders' formation on the 5-Minute Chart below.

It will trade initially based on the updated 4th Quarter GDP Report scheduled for release at 8:30am.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Thursday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ gapped up at the open on Thursday, thereby, presenting an extra bonus to those desiring to venture a short sale based on the bearish 'Head & Shoulders' Pattern on the 5-Minute Chart that was highlighted in last night's notes.

Thursday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows how the QQQQ fell from the opening gap to Gathering Support and then bounced impressively from there into the close.

On Friday, the QQQQ must overcome very short-term Resistance at $43.60 if it is to make further upside progress.

The 10:00am Consumer Sentiment Report is often a market mover and traders may wait for its release before taking a position.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ spiked in early trade on Friday to within hand-shaking distance of Gathering Resistance between $43.89 and $44.00. After printing a high of $43.87, Resistance was found and the QQQQ fell $0.65 to a subsequent low of $43.22.

Friday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the brief spike to Gathering Resistance and the subsequent retreat.

On Monday, the QQQQ will react to the 10:00am ISM Manufacturing Index Report. A value above 50 indicates that business is expanding for manufacturers. A value below 50 indicates that business is contracting.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ rallied impressively on Tuesday. Relatively light volume, however, calls into question the durability of the rally.

Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows how the QQQQ gapped up to open within the boundaries of Gathering Resistance between $43.78 and $43.85 and how, after a period of time, the QQQQ captured Gathering Resistance, thereby, issuing a warning to those holding short positions.

A second warning to shorts came when the QQQQ captured Tuesday's second area of Gathering Resistance between $40.00 and $40.01 and then found Support there on a subsequent pull back.

On Wednesday, the QQQQ is poised to test Resistance at the peak of its massive February 27th sell off. That line of Resistance at $44.48 was tested two weeks ago when March printed a high of $44.45 (see the Daily Chart - not shown here).

The QQQQ will focus on two economic reports:

1) 10:00am - Factory 'New Orders' Report
2) 10:30am - Petroleum Status Report

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Thursday's 5-Minute Chart...

Early morning weakness dropped the QQQQ to Gathering Support between $44.62 and $44.75. After printing a low of $44.72, Support was found and the QQQQ rose $0.53 to a subsequent high of $45.25.

Thursday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the QQQQ giving a similar performance to that of Wednesday by bouncing from Gathering Support in the morning and then retreating from Gathering Resistance in the afternoon.

Friday marks the end of Options Expiration Week. There are no Economic Reports of consequence being reported.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ gapped up at Friday's open to test Gathering Resistance between $45.55 and $45.63. After printing a high of $45.67, Resistance was found and the QQQQ retreated $0.47 to a subsequent low of $44.20.

Friday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the QQQQ rising to Gathering Resistance and the subsequent pull back.

On Monday, the QQQQ is poised to test Resistance at its new 2007 high ($45.67).

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Caution on the long side is warranted as the QQQQ along with other major indexes are in overbought territory at the same time that a seasonally weak period of the market is approaching ('Sell in May and go away').

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's 5-Minute Chart (05/04/07)...

The QQQQ gapped up at Friday's open based on a weak 8:30am Employment Report. A weak Employment Report was interpreted to mean that the Fed won't raise interest rates anytime soon. The QQQQ tends to do better when interest rates are not rising as the brown line on the Weekly Chart illustrates:
www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID735617

Friday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the QQQQ printing a new 2007 High at $46.89.

Entering Monday, the QQQQ is showing no signs of weakness. Nevertheless, it is overbought from both a short-term and a long-term perspective and, therefore, vulnerable to profit taking.

The main Economic Event of the Week will arrive at 2:15pm Wednesday when the FOMC releases its decision on interest rates. It's certain to be a market mover.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Monday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ delivered a narrow 16-cent trading range for all except the last hour of trade on miniscule volume of 47 million shares, the lowest so far of 2007.

Monday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the details of a sleepy day.

On Tuesday, the QQQQ may deliver a similar performance if traders continue to stand on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's 2:15pm interest rate announcement.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ gapped down to Gathering Support at Tuesday's open. After a period of stabilization, it staged an afternoon rally.

Tuesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows how the QQQQ fell in early trade to Gathering Support, stabilized on the roof of that Support, then rallied in the afternoon to test Resistance at Monday's High.

On Wednesday, the QQQQ will have one thing on its mind, the 2:15pm interest rate decision. Whether the QQQQ prints a new 2007 High or finally embarks on a correction from its current overbought condition may well hinge on its reaction to the FOMC's decision and accompanying statement.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Wednesday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ gapped down at Wednesday's open in negative response to Cisco's earnings. It immediately found its footing, however, and trended up into the 2:15pm Fed decision on interest rates. No change in rates triggered an accelerated trend, resulting in a new 2007 High at $46.97.

Wednesday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the QQQQ rising to Gathering Resistance. Resistance was found but produced no meaningful pull back.

On Thursday...

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Economic Reports:

8:30am - Import and Export Prices. Rising import prices are inflationary. Since the Fed stated on Wednesday that inflation control is top priority, this report will receive extra scrutiny.

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Thurday's 5-Minute Chart...

An overbought QQQQ was vulnerable to profit taking. Some of that profit taking occurred on Thursday,
triggered by negative Economic Reports ... 1) an increase in Import Prices (inflation) and
2) weakening sales at the nation's retailers (a slowing economy).

Thursday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows the QQQQ gapping down at the open,
attempting to fill the gap and then plunging.

On Friday, the long overdue correction in a QQQQ that has risen too far, too fast, may continue.

Thursday's drop down-and-out of the bearish Rising Wedge on heavy volume (see the Daily Chart)
is one of several indications that Thursday was just the beginning of a deeper pull back to come.

Daily Chart: www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID735617

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before
and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's 5-Minute Chart...

The QQQQ recovered most of Thursday's losses on Friday in positive response to the
Producer Price Index Report that showed no current threat of inflation at the wholesale level.

Friday's 5-Minute Chart (below) shows how well the QQQQ liked the "no inflation" news.

On Monday, the QQQQ is back in dangerously overbought territory. Traders will be waiting to see
if Thursday's profit taking marked the beginning of a long overdue correction or not.

Gathering Support stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__ and $__.__.

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before
and may be loaded as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button:

 

[Mr_Nasdaq]

QQQQ - Friday's Analysis (06/01/07)

The price of the QQQQ closed at 47.44 on Friday, up 0.03 from Thursday and up 0.99 from last Friday's price of 46.45.
Since the price of the QQQQ rose from last Friday and was confirmed by today's action, it turned bullish
as compared to last Friday's neutral sentiment.

The short-term trend of the QQQQ, which is determined by its week-to-week direction, is up: Daily Chart

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Friday's 5-Minute Chart shows that even though the short-term trend is up, the QQQQ must still deal with [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gathering Resistance from which it pulled back on Friday.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]On Monday, the trend of the QQQQ is up until proven otherwise: Bull Market Encore[/FONT]

Nevertheless, there are no lack of reasons to practice caution on the long side, two of which are on display at
the Weekly Chart: 1) The QQQQ is up against Resistance at a long-term trend line. 2) Interest rates are on the rise
and the usual relationship between interest rates and the QQQQ is that they move in opposite directions
(the brown line on the Weekly Chart represents the direction of interest rates).

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gathering Resistance stands between $__.__[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gathering Support stands between $__.__[/FONT]

Each day's area of Gathering Support and Gathering Resistance is calculated the night before and may be loaded
as 'Alerts' into the Medved QuoteTracker via QuoteTracker's 'Paste from Excel' Button.[/FONT]