Buy a profitable system

[Pat494]

Am I alone or are others bewildered by the choice of so called profitable systems for sale. Are they really profitable ?
You look at their websites and see charts claiming to prove just this point but on closer inspection you will see that most of them go back years. They have obviously just taken the best scenario that they can find. If you buy the system and complain it makes losses, then they blame the client for using it wrongly.
A fair test with them using their OWN systems would be to have only a short delay e.g. a day or a week on the charts showing how they are doing. To my knowledge, correct me if I' wrong, but I haven't found one single vendor passing this obvious test.
Is it impossible to predict the future ? partially correct I suppose but even a coin toss would get it right 50% of the time.
I suggested a competition for manufacturers and users on T2W but it was turned down ! I wonder why ???????????????????

 

[TWI]

Unless you trade it yourself you wil not know the full horror of it. Look at collective2 website and see many "profitable" systems, then read what subscribers say about it.
"Impossible to execute signals".
I would hazard a guess that 99.9% of commercial systems will only make the vendor money and only lead to a loss for the subscriber. Even if signals make money the costs and slippage will kill it. As far as I am concerned, there are no short cuts in this game, anybody who thinks there is will be destined for loss. Better to spend time working on your own discipline than scanning pie in sky website scams.

 

[sandpiper]

Am I alone or are others bewildered by the choice of so called profitable systems for sale. Are they really profitable ?
You look at their websites and see charts claiming to prove just this point but on closer inspection you will see that most of them go back years. They have obviously just taken the best scenario that they can find. If you buy the system and complain it makes losses, then they blame the client for using it wrongly.
A fair test with them using their OWN systems would be to have only a short delay e.g. a day or a week on the charts showing how they are doing. To my knowledge, correct me if I' wrong, but I haven't found one single vendor passing this obvious test.
Is it impossible to predict the future ? partially correct I suppose but even a coin toss would get it right 50% of the time.
I suggested a competition for manufacturers and users on T2W but it was turned down ! I wonder why ???????????????????

Pat,

Hey, I thought NN's were your gig of late?

To my knowledge futurestruth are still ranked the best independent arbiters of system performance. However, if you look at their top 10 performers over the last twelve months you can see that they are all trading nat gas or crude..... some years ago they were all Nasdaq based systems before that they were all S&P 500, etc, etc. I'm sure you get the picture anyway.

Collective2 is a good, well thought out site that has improved a lot over the years. However I still wouldn't touch any of the systems on their with yours (so to speak). Why? because the vast majority of vendors on their appear to be hobbyists chancing their arm for a bit of extra cash. In their defence though (the vendors that is) know exactly the sort of target audience collective2 attracts.

Serious vendors (if there is such a thing) are much more likely to subject themselves to the additional scrutiny involved with a rating on futurestruth simply because the target audience is likely to be a bit more savvy and be willing to part with more cash. They are also more likely to be setting themselves up with a number of different systems across different markets.

Actually, if you are prepared to throw enough money at it and diversify across systems/markets then there is probably some mileage in the approach

However, as Twalker says, for anyone whos trading single markets or a small group of strongly correlated markets, there really aren't any shortcuts.

Is it impossible to predict the future? Of course not. I predict that in 4 months 13 days and 3 hours this very same question will be asked again.

Anyway. Good luck with it if you are planning on going down that route.

 

[Pat494]

Thx Sandpiper and twalker for your replies.
Yes I am still fiddling about with NN. It's not so bad so that I can bin it and forget it or good enough to make me some dosh. However this week is crunch week !! ( it's going well today though).
I had a look at futurestruth ( thx for reminding me - I had forgotten it ).
The top 2 for S&P are :-
1. R-Mesa 3
2. RC Success
However both are for Tradestation which I rejected on cost grounds.
Will look again later

 

[dbphoenix]

There are some members who believe that all vendors are scum. But whether you believe that or not, consider at least that traders are prospectors and vendors sell maps. And sometimes picks to go with them. The prospector who buys the map and attempts to prospect for gold with it, either with pickax or with shovel, is less likely to be successful than the prospector who treds the territory himself and draws his own map, though anything is of course possible.

A very few vendors will teach -- or try to -- the prospector how to draw his own map. Whom you select will depend on what you want.

Db

 

[sandpiper]

The top 2 for S&P are :-
1. R-Mesa 3
2. RC Success
However both are for Tradestation which I rejected on cost grounds.
Will look again later

Pat,

It's a mystery to me (many things are ) why people have this obsession with the S&P. Of all the markets you could choose, it's the one I've observed people having the most difficulty with when it comes to system stability/draw down/performance. I myself had major difficulties back in 99/2000 with an S&P system that had recently gone through futurestruth. The b**tard thing just stopped working and refused to generate huge profits the spending of whcih I had already planned Fortunately I was able to apportion blame for the failure entirely on the system vendor leaving myself with a completely clear conscience Just be careful you don't end up as a member of the same not-so-exclusive club

Also, I don't understand why you would reject a system based on cost. Either the system performance stacks up or it doesn't. In terms of the bottom line, a cheap system that fails to perform is no better than an expensive system that fails to perform. However, I believe that you will find that S&P systems are almost always priced at a premium to those systems trading other markets.

Why not go for a system(s) that trade other markets (not FX for god's sake!!!) , they will probably be cheaper for a start. If you have the capital base consider diversifying across a few un-correlated markets. You stand more of a chance.

Actually, now that I think on it, if you attempted to develop nets based on markets other than the S&P you might have more success and not be tempted to travel down the turn-key path at all.

If you absolutely have to have an S&P system and have it trade in isolation, why not take the advice of many people who have trodden the path before you (if only I had ) and keep working whilst getting a broker to trade the system with only the interest returned from t-bills?

Anyway. Just a few thoughts.

 

[sandpiper]

Pat,

In fairness, since you mentioned it and I hadn't seen it before I thought I'd have a look at Rickey Cheung's stuff. Actually, It makes for fascinating reading.

From How I developed the RC Miracles and RC Success SP day trade systems… By Rickey Cheung , Jan2005

This phase of disappointment was the darkest period after I discovered the secret of trading profitably with the winning edge, but life has a way of turning things around in his own time. One day, out of pure desperation I picked up the performance results a trading guru had sent me and took a long, close look at the data. I suddenly realized that, while my system was based on the eMini SP, the Gurus were testing with large S&P data. I was writing my own programs based on the SP eMini which has a dollar value 5 times less than the big SP system. Curiously, this was how my programming was set up by the specialists and my technicians, thus my results were flawed and none of us had realized that we were not comparing apples to apples. The systems that my system was being compared to were using the big SP to publish their results while I was using eMini SP data. Even Dr. B did not realize this fact, so he continued to push me to do better because it appeared that the results from my system were still far behind other systems that were available in the market.

Absolutely fantastic!!!!! I've just found the RC Micracle theme tune. I can honestly say I have never, ever come across a system with its own song.

http://www.rc3200.com/en/song.php

Miracles

Just like a miracle, deep in my soul
I've got a feeling of which I wanna get hold
You may not understand, to some extent
There're things cannot simply be explained

I want to share my precious gift with you
(That's my sensation)
Won't you ever think it's the only truth
My promises encouraged you
To reach your highest star, it won't be too far
And I'll never leave you empty-handed
We'll watch the seedling germinated
Together we will taste the fruits one day

Every word that I said
Every step that I made
Spending all my nights and days
Just to create this miracle for you

It must be miracles, now I know
Things used to be so far, can be so close
We finally understand, to some extent
We can have our futures in our hands
We can have our futures in our hands

Now that my friend is taking marketing to an altogether new level. Fair play to Ricky.

Thanks Pat, that's really put a smile on my face.

 

[Trdr]

No system works 100% of the time, optimized for one timeframe or market it won't work on others or whipsaws. Greater consideration should be given to a system's losses, how many and how much; as long as the overall profitability is above 50% + commission — it works.

'Results/Performance' based on backtesting are unreliable. A trial period should be asked for, many developers provide same. Many systems require 'user discretion' when entering trades.

This site has 163 free Trading Systems and Expert Advisors in MetaStock code:
http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/!-MSZ-index-en.html
and see other MetaStock and specific charting program forums such as AmiBroker.

http://www.dacharts.com/ provides many various 'systems'/methods — see 'chart archives' etc.

The MetaTrader charting/order entry program — FOREX some CFDs — has many user developed Experts/trading systems that work, see:
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators/

Then there's such as and etc: http://www.dynamictrend.com/

Crossing Moving Averages is probably the simplest and most reliable system.

Prediction: Elliott Wave and the fibo tool, several EW charting programs available.

 

[laptop1]

Buy a profitable system

Would anyone buy a system or method, if the guy who was selling it, showed you live calls for 1 month to see how good it was?

 

[Tuffty]

Am I alone or are others bewildered by the choice of so called profitable systems for sale. Are they really profitable ?

You're such a cynic! Of course they're all profitable

















....for the seller.

 

[rich500ny]

Good System

In my experience, there are lots of good systems! Most have a shelf life.. And some only work in certain phases of the market.

Some of the best ones are designed to give you an edge. But once you have an edge, that is not enough to make money as you need to have a good money management system that will allow you to profit without going bust with all the draw downs.

Also its best to trade multiple systems. Why put all your eggs in one basket.

Lastly, don't trade correlated markets.

Hope the above tips help anyone looking for a system.

 

[jonnyy40]

I was born under a trading star
Men were made for Women
And Gold was meant for necks
I don't know why but for my account
I'm always writing cheques.

 

[Pat494]

Good one Jonny