Best Thread Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread

[John_Galt]

Melbourne...

Its just a cash account (using it for data feeds), don't get what is taking them so long. (can't open margin with them)...

AgeKay:
So pulling bids and then offering size is not flipping? that is called spoofing?

I was under the impression that it did! I have to check that out as it is something I'm after..

 

[42* S]

No, flipping is if they pull their offers and then bid size on the other side. They might have just spoofed you.

If I remember correctly, NinjaTrader does not replay the DOM, only time & sales.

Welcome to the world of the Bund ,

 

[AgeKay]

Melbourne...
So pulling bids and then offering size is not flipping? that is called spoofing?

No, that is flipping. Spoofing is if they just pull their bids or offers without putting size on the other side. It's like bluffing. Flipping is when they pull their offers/bids and then "flip" them to the other side.

 

[John_Galt]

When you see big orders in the depth ladder, and they are genuine orders - what kind of people are putting in their orders for everyone to see? Pro's hide their orders and amateurs show..

So when leaning on size a scalper is looking to grab a few ticks of amateurs who will support/ resist a move if no big boy comes in?

 

[AgeKay]

When you see big orders in the depth ladder, and they are genuine orders - what kind of people are putting in their orders for everyone to see? Pro's hide their orders and amateurs show..

It's not that simple (as usual). First of all, amateurs probably don't have big size to show (at least not for long). Just think about why you would put a large order in for everyone to see. The only reason is that they want to reserve the position in queue and want to get their whole order filled at that price. This will probably be an order to close their position. They don't really care that people see it, in fact, they probably want other big guys to see that it's genuine so that the other big traders use it to enter or exit their positions. So it would be win/win for both traders. One get's his complete order filled at the price he desires and the other one can enter/exit his position without moving the market.

So when leaning on size a scalper is looking to grab a few ticks of amateurs who will support/ resist a move if no big boy comes in?

I found that leaning on size is not necessarily a high probability trade. The orders could always be pulled and it will always be to late for you to cancel yours too. Secondly, even if it stays there, that does not prevent other traders from trading many big market orders to just eat through that size and move the market a few ticks against you.

 

[John_Galt]

First of all, amateurs probably don't have big size to show (at least not for long). Just think about why you would put a large order in for everyone to see. The only reason is that they want to reserve the position in queue and want to get their whole order filled at that price.

Ok, I see the advantage of that. Knowing your risk ahead.
But it is no problem for example when they want to sell @ specific price and then everyone sells ahead of them?

I found that leaning on size is not necessarily a high probability trade. The orders could always be pulled and it will always be to late for you to cancel yours too. Secondly, even if it stays there, that does not prevent other traders from trading many big market orders to just eat through that size and move the market a few ticks against you.

This is basically what I've been trying to do till now. Just glued to DOM. I don't see any other patterns to trade it (schatz) yet. But I will throw up T&S when I can (I'm finding it hard to keep track of sales in DOM) and watch that too. Don't want to take on too much risk until I build up my account more through scalps.

30 trades today netted -4 ticks.

Lots of the time it will take the schatz ages to move while I'm in it (so I could sit there with a trade on for 10min+), to me this is a sign that I'm not actually reading anything but randomly entering on what I think are patterns or signals for entry which are not actually real patterns.

There has been a 5000+ bid in the orderbook for a while, it has held a few times...

Btw AgeKay noticed you are from TradersLab as well...

 

[gooseman]

When you see big orders in the depth ladder, and they are genuine orders - what kind of people are putting in their orders for everyone to see? Pro's hide their orders and amateurs show..

spoken like a true scalper.

limit orders maybe? hedges? if some macro news comes out that sends the market through that price do ou think algos are going to want to stand in front of that order diming it.

bottom line-some people just don't care about that sort of thing.

 

[AgeKay]

But it is no problem for example when they want to sell @ specific price and then everyone sells ahead of them?

Well, that's the risk in trading. You don't know what's gonna happen and anything can happen. But why should 'everyone' sell ahead of them?

Lots of the time it will take the schatz ages to move while I'm in it (so I could sit there with a trade on for 10min+), to me this is a sign that I'm not actually reading anything but randomly entering on what I think are patterns or signals for entry which are not actually real patterns.

Is there a particular reason why you want to trade the schatz? Tick size is low, volatility is low. Not the best market for a scalper in my opinion unless you know you have an edge.

There has been a 5000+ bid in the orderbook for a while, it has held a few times...

They hold until they don't ;-)

Btw AgeKay noticed you are from TradersLab as well...

Yes, I am mostly on there. This is the only thread I follow here because I used to be into trading the bund (but i was looking at the schatz and bobl at the same time). What is your screen name on TradersLab?

 

[John_Galt]

Is there a particular reason why you want to trade the schatz? Tick size is low, volatility is low. Not the best market for a scalper in my opinion unless you know you have an edge.

Low tick size. Slow. I have small account and want some room to **** up.
Will probably play with bobl and then when I lose a certain amount move to schatz for the day (when I go live). Also at this point in time I'm really trying everything for feel, having come from a trend following stock trading background.

They hold until they don't ;-)

Hah
Yeah I think its not in the book anymore got taken out quickly too.

 

[John_Galt]

Well, that's the risk in trading. You don't know what's gonna happen and anything can happen. But why should 'everyone' sell ahead of them?

Actually, I had a little mind block. What I was confused about was locking in profits / taking up new position vs taking a loss. Stops aren't going to show in the books anyway. I'm used to being paranoid about my stops in speculative illiquid issues... I would never put them with my broker. Always mental.

In futures / eurex is there anyone who has ability to see where all the stops are being placed? If not, then I do not see the advantage of holding stops mentally (for my size in eurex it would be a non-issue but just curious about it).

AgeKay: Screen-name is RobinHood.

 

[AgeKay]

In futures / eurex is there anyone who has ability to see where all the stops are being placed? If not, then I do not see the advantage of holding stops mentally (for my size in eurex it would be a non-issue but just curious about it)

If a stop order is supported by the exchange then the exchange would hold all the stop orders and nobody would be able to see it (some employees of the exchange should be able to see it though, but I doubt they would be allowed to act on that information). If you trade with X_Trader (more than 50% of futures volume goes through their software) than you're stops are supposedly held at the TT Gateway. I imagine that this would be some pretty advantageous information to have access to if you are working for TT (but I also doubt that they are allowed to act on that information). In any case, your broker knows your stops since you entering your orders with them.

There is really no advantage of holding them mentally when you have fixed stops.

 

[John_Galt]

Apart from Bond Bobl Schatz DOM and charts anything else you guys watch which can have a relationship with the fixed products, e.g. US treasuries, DAX, FX??

A few things I've noticed past few days which I haven't really figured out:
bid gets hit up or offer lifted, becomes weak, e.g. 5 bid and after a few quiet moments gets massively replenished. As opposed to just immediately being replenished while being hit up.

Also yesterday noticed a few times we had very strong implied demand, 1000s piled up on the first few bid levels and as soon as the market hit first bid they all vanished instantly and we jumped down.

I would like to understand how spread traders affect the market / arb bots so I'll be able to get a better understanding of the patterns I'm seeing. Are there any books (bonds in particular) recommended? or even Eurex information - I've been on the site but they just seem to offer all these $$$euro courses...

 

[John_Galt]

anyone know why Eurex opened 30min late today?

 

[gooseman]

opened @ 7.

 

[John_Galt]

must of been my feed (zen-fire). I had a look @ eurex website on the open and there were no quotes either, but I guess they are delayed.

 

[John_Galt]

I noticed a few times refilling of the order book in an incremental way. It could be an iceberg but instead of filling up in 20,30,80 lots its increasing by 1 very rapidly. So you have 300 bid - it will go 301,302,303,304 .... very fast until 400 or more. Anyone noticed this happening every now and then? what the hell is the point of that as opposed to just replenishing a level in bigger lots? is this some kind of game?

Also occasionally - well at least earlier today - we had 1-1-1-1-2 hit the tape over and over all in the same moment. so I don't think it was just by chance. really don't see the point of this but I'm guessing its some kind of game to lure people in or something??

anyone else noticed?

 

[AgeKay]

That's interesting. You should write down what happens every time this happens. You might catch a pattern.

I noticed a few times refilling of the order book in an incremental way. It could be an iceberg but instead of filling up in 20,30,80 lots its increasing by 1 very rapidly. So you have 300 bid - it will go 301,302,303,304 .... very fast until 400 or more. Anyone noticed this happening every now and then? what the hell is the point of that as opposed to just replenishing a level in bigger lots? is this some kind of game?

I really don't know what's happening, all I can do is speculate. So here it goes: This might be testing to see if a change in the depth triggers certain algos which are based on depth.

Also occasionally - well at least earlier today - we had 1-1-1-1-2 hit the tape over and over all in the same moment. so I don't think it was just by chance. really don't see the point of this but I'm guessing its some kind of game to lure people in or something??

anyone else noticed?

Don't know again, but they might just test if the depth is real with those small orders or simulate activity on the tape.

 

[Mpoufos]

hit the tape?

 

[John_Galt]

showing up on time&sales

 

[John_Galt]

question to those of you using the DOM.

does your DOM show individual transactions hitting the market? or does it summarize them for each price level?
e.g. 100,20,30,50 lots hit the bid consecutively. Does your DOM show it as 200 hitting bid (i'm not talking about vol histogram here - this number disappears as soon as the 'last price' changes), or does it flash each transaction separately at the bid - 100,20,30,50.

I use Ninja-Trader for asian markets but then OEC for euro bonds (it shows 10 levels), only problem is it is a DOM that summarizes the transactions. I've recently looked into TT simulator but was surprised to see that it also summarizes transactions. So I guess its a common thing...


for those of you utilizing a DOM, don't you occasionally find you will miss out on an important transaction? do you not prefer the information to be more "pure"?

regards.